Sat Nov 17, 2012, 10:13 AM
UCmeNdc (4,679 posts)
Obama pollster: Gallup, public polling needs a retooling
President Obama’s lead pollster, Joel Benenson, took issue with the wild variations in the Gallup polling data – and the various public surveys that were widely off the mark – in a post-election interview with POLITICO.
Benenson, whose forecasting model was critical to the campaign, went through the major issues with the public polls that showed wild variations throughout the final weeks of a remarkably stable race.
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Obama pollster: Gallup, public polling needs a retooling (Original post)
|Midwestern Democrat||Nov 2012||#2|
Response to UCmeNdc (Original post)
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 11:05 AM
frazzled (14,627 posts)
1. I don't think Gallup's polling lapses were entirely the function of error
I think some of these outfits intentionally skew their "likely voter" models to create the impression that a candidate is doing better than he really is, in order to create enthusiasm and momentum and inevitability and all that stuff (and then in the last few days, try to bring it more in line with realities, to save their reputations). I think it was done on a ridiculous scale this season.
I also think they are of the mind these days that it no longer matters how they get ranked for accuracy after all is said and done. (Just as the Romney campaign overtly stated they didn't care about the fact checkers). Their purpose is now to create an impression, not to accurately reflect the facts.
Response to frazzled (Reply #1)
Sat Nov 17, 2012, 11:24 AM
Midwestern Democrat (383 posts)
2. Well, Gallup certainly has a lot of explaining to do. How could they seriously project that whites
would make up a larger percentage of the electorate in 2012 than in 2004 (78% vs 77% - the actual 2012 share was 72%)? Personally, I don't think I'll ever take a Gallup poll seriously again.