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Alexander

(15,318 posts)
Sat Oct 8, 2016, 11:48 AM Oct 2016

How badly do you think this will hurt Drumpf in the popular & electoral votes?

Fivethirtyeight's polls-plus have this right now, before any post-video polls have sunk in:

Polls-plus:

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton - 48.4%
Donald Trump - 44.1%

Electoral vote

Hillary Clinton - 313.9
Donald Trump - 224.0

Polls only:

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton - 48.8%
Donald Trump - 43.2%

Electoral vote

Hillary Clinton - 329.7
Donald Trump - 208.2

Now-cast:

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton - 48.9%
Donald Trump - 42.6%

Electoral vote

Hillary Clinton - 337.1
Donald Trump - 200.8

How much do you think this will change?

Myself, I see today's 4.5-6.5 point range turning into an 8-10 point landslide for Hillary Clinton, with predictable coattails for down-ballot races.

I see her winning all the "tossup" states, and probably now Arizona too.

Alaska, Georgia and others might start to be in play.

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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How badly do you think this will hurt Drumpf in the popular & electoral votes? (Original Post) Alexander Oct 2016 OP
I am hoping for long coattails. gademocrat7 Oct 2016 #1
Me too. I think the Senate is a lock and we may even get the House too. Alexander Oct 2016 #2
What about the latest LA Times.tracking poll that has Gropper bigdarryl Oct 2016 #3
I've read their methodology is flawed. That poll was also before this came out. Alexander Oct 2016 #6
I'm thinking 400 EVs plus VMA131Marine Oct 2016 #4
Interesting. What states do you think she'll win to get there? Alexander Oct 2016 #7
I don't see how it couldn't happen at this point Fast Walker 52 Oct 2016 #5
 

Alexander

(15,318 posts)
6. I've read their methodology is flawed. That poll was also before this came out.
Sat Oct 8, 2016, 11:59 AM
Oct 2016

This is without a doubt the biggest October surprise ever.

VMA131Marine

(4,134 posts)
4. I'm thinking 400 EVs plus
Sat Oct 8, 2016, 11:57 AM
Oct 2016

The Senate and House; proving, once again, that POTUS Barack Obama knows how to play the long game. #thanksobama

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
5. I don't see how it couldn't happen at this point
Sat Oct 8, 2016, 11:58 AM
Oct 2016

this is as huge a fucking implosion right before the election as has ever happened in my memory

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