2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIs Mitt Romney the Most Unpopular (likely) Presidential Nominee Ever?
To defeat Barack Obama in November, Mitt Romney would have to make history by overcoming a larger favorability deficit than any other modern presidential candidate.
Since 1976, no serious contender, Democrat or Republican, has watched his favorable ratings fall as low as Romneys have in recent months. Or watched his unfavorable ratings climb as high. Or watched his overall numbers stay underwaterthat is, more unfavorable than favorablefor so long.
At this rate, Romney is shaping up to be the most unpopular presidential nominee on record.
Its no secret that this years Republican primary contest has hurt the former Massachusetts governor. What was supposed to be a rather orderly march to the nomination has steadily morphed into a degenerative, Sisyphean slog, thanks to the vagaries of delegate math and the GOPs curious lack of enthusiasm for Mormon moderates from Massachusetts. George Will, for one, has grown so despondent that he is already advising conservatives to give up on the presidency and focus on Congress instead.
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grantcart
(53,061 posts)also from the article
Unfortunately, this is terrible news for Mitt, because he currently boasts the worst primary-season favorable-unfavorable split of any major-party nominee of the last 36 years (at least). There have been roughly 20 polls released in the last two months; only one gives him a positive favorable rating. The rest of the surveys show Romneys unfavorables outstripping his favorables, often by as many as 20 percentage points. On five occasions, his unfavorable rating has topped 50 percent; his favorable rating has fallen into the 20s five times as well. As of March 12, when the last of these polls was released, Romney was averaging 49.6 percent unfavorable to 37.6 percent favorablea gap of 11.7 points.
goclark
(30,404 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)may have been the most unpopular major party nominee. He holds the dubious distinction of being the only major party presidential candidate since at least the 1870s to get fewer votes than a 3rd party candidate.
boxman15
(1,033 posts)Although the circumstances are different (for one, Romney isn't the incumbent), I wonder if a more conservative candidate will run third party and still some Mitt votes since he's too much of a moderate (or is he? Who knows?), much like how Teddy Roosevelt ran third-party because Taft was much more conservative than the progressive Republican would've liked.
emulatorloo
(44,069 posts)At least that is their goal. Hundreds of millions of Swiftboats launching soon.
asjr
(10,479 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)Carter in 1980 and Mondale in 1984 both had larger negative favorability than Romney.
The more interesting question is whether any presidential candidate has ever been this unpopular with his own party. I'd guess you'd probably have to go back to Davis in 1924.
Stan Smith
(97 posts)Thankfully, this time around every single one of the GOP candidates is nothing but clowns. They have zero chance of beating President Obama. I also know we will keep the Senate, and get the House back. Then we can make some real progress and make the republican party a minority for at least a generation.
lumpy
(13,704 posts)nt