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Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:24 AM

This is the boost she received from winning the debate???? OMGosh.....you've got to be kidding.

Down to 55.5%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Ok that's it.......I'm done checking this site. Ugh.......

37 replies, 3594 views

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Reply This is the boost she received from winning the debate???? OMGosh.....you've got to be kidding. (Original post)
a kennedy Sep 2016 OP
Renew Deal Sep 2016 #1
beachbum bob Sep 2016 #2
a kennedy Sep 2016 #3
Imperialism Inc. Sep 2016 #22
LiberalFighter Sep 2016 #23
FSogol Sep 2016 #4
RobinA Sep 2016 #5
DarthDem Sep 2016 #6
a kennedy Sep 2016 #9
DarthDem Sep 2016 #16
JTFrog Sep 2016 #7
DinahMoeHum Sep 2016 #8
a kennedy Sep 2016 #10
BobbyDrake Sep 2016 #11
obamanut2012 Sep 2016 #12
a kennedy Sep 2016 #15
obamanut2012 Sep 2016 #18
scheming daemons Sep 2016 #29
DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2016 #13
ochem Sep 2016 #14
book_worm Sep 2016 #17
artyteacher Sep 2016 #19
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #20
a kennedy Sep 2016 #21
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #37
yellowcanine Sep 2016 #24
a kennedy Sep 2016 #26
still_one Sep 2016 #31
Dem2 Sep 2016 #25
Cattledog Sep 2016 #27
still_one Sep 2016 #28
Cattledog Sep 2016 #30
heaven05 Sep 2016 #32
florida08 Sep 2016 #33
Tommy_Carcetti Sep 2016 #34
rumdude Sep 2016 #35
LineNew Reply .
NCTraveler Sep 2016 #36

Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:26 AM

1. Do you know what number means?

It impossible for the debate to affect it today

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:27 AM

2. you do realize that these odds are based on polls that yet to be been done right?

 

don't freak out

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:28 AM

3. the numbers were updated 21 minutes ago........eom

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:01 AM

22. Wait, you think post-debate election polling has already been completed and released?

Do you have trouble tying your shoes in the morning? Be honest now.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:03 AM

23. The latest poll added was for Sept 27th.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:30 AM

4. CALL CONGRESS RIGHT NOW!

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:30 AM

5. I Don't Know

about the poll, but I think it's not necessarily the case that who "won" the debate is going to translate to votes. Amongst all the celebrating that Hillary did a really great job, I think how much that may or may not matter is not being discussed.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:31 AM

6. Please. Stop. Checking. That. F***ing. Site.


Or at least, please stop posting about it. Not just you - everyone. It's designed to drive clicks and discussion. It is an untested computer model and is demonstrably flawed. Use your common sense instead. Think of it as a computerized concern troll.

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Response to DarthDem (Reply #6)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:32 AM

9. Of course you're right......thanks.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #9)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:38 AM

16. My Pleasure . . .

. . . and please know that I didn't mean to direct the asterisked-out epithet at you. I was directing it at Nate Silver and ESPN. But if we all stop talking about that increasingly ludicrous "model" over here, it will magically disappear from our consciousness.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:32 AM

7. OMG....ONOZ!!!!

 



Thanks for another positive thread!

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:32 AM

8. Patience, grasshopper. Wait another 24-48 hours.

By then, I think you'll like what you see.

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Response to DinahMoeHum (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:33 AM

10. Yup, that's right 24-48 hours.....

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:33 AM

11. If you don't understand how that forecast works, then yeah, stop reading it

 

It's not Instapundit, FFS! It's based on polls that take days, sometimes weeks, to conduct. The effect of the debate won't be felt in polls for a few days from now.

This is GE 101 stuff, FCOL. Pull yourself together.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:36 AM

12. Why do you think that number includes a debate bounce?

Do you understand how polls work???

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Response to obamanut2012 (Reply #12)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:38 AM

15. Guess I don't, was actually hoping to see some sort of uptick this morning......guess I was wrong.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:40 AM

18. Polls don't work like that

She is actually up a point on 538 from last night for some reason.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:10 AM

29. 538's numbers are SOLELY based on polls. How could there have been an uptick yet?

 


Wait until some post-debate polls come out.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:36 AM

13. SMH

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:37 AM

14. give it 5 days

 

stop freaking out. chillax, she got his.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:39 AM

17. So what new state polls came out since the debate or were conducted since the debate?

Try and calm down and wait.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:57 AM

19. polls are always behind trends...

Check the betting markets for faster results to breaking news.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 07:59 AM

20. Dear a Kennedy

Another negative post...how not surprising. That is all you have.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #20)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:00 AM

21. hey Demsrule86, been waiting for you......

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #21)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 02:45 PM

37. Waiting breathlessly for a positive post. nt

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:04 AM

24. Deep breath. It will take a few days for polls to start moving.

The 538 numbers today were pretty much baked in over the weekend when the expectations game was going on and Hillary supporters were nervous about whether Trump was going to manage to appear normal and thus "win" by his low bar standards. His implosion will change all that.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #24)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:06 AM

26. Thank you.....and I'm hearing that it takes awhile for debate results to appear......

will try to wait patiently.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #24)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:12 AM

31. Actually, a few days ago the probability numbers were very close for both candidates, and this isn't

changed to much from yesterday where Hillary has regained a higher probability of winning, These numbers do not reflect the debate. There is no poll that has been done to show that yet. It would take about three days of polling for any debate effect to show up

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:05 AM

25. Impulse control much?

Check back in 10 days, then you'll have some idea what effect the debate had.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:07 AM

27. Get a grip!

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:08 AM

28. First of all, numbers do not move that quickly. It takes several days to a week to show up. Most

important is that the debate isn't going to change the party loyalists, it will only change the undecided, and that may take even longer to work into the polling numbers

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:17 AM

32. he rambled, bullied and drank water

 

while sniffing whatever substance affecting that addled brain cell he has.

HRC cruised, crushed and left the trumpenfuhrer in her dust. She is a true leader for this country. Hands ddown..

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:17 AM

33. That's Nate Silver's site

He is the one who also said Trump would never be the nominee. I follow him on Twitter. He goes by numbers not mentality. Polls are suppose to be a small sample of opinions at a point in time. They might be voters and they might not. They are emotionally driven not logically. Take them with a grain of salt.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:18 AM

34. Calm down! Get a hold of yourself!

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:21 AM

35. Nate Silver himself said in post before the debate that the effects

 

of the debate won't show up for 5 to 7 days.

Hillary destroyed Don.

You wait and see.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 08:22 AM

36. .

 

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