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Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:10 AM

 

I believe that Bernie can really help boost support for Hillary with Millennial voters

I look forward to his hitting the trail and hope that he can still generate large numbers of people at rallies. She's leading Trump with these voters but trailing by a lot what Obama managed in 2008 and 2012.

<snip>


Clinton is earning 41 percent, on average, with young voters. In both 2008 and 2012, by contrast, Barack Obama won at least 60 percent of these voters, according to the American National Election Studies (ANES).

But it’s not that younger voters like Trump. Quite the opposite: Only 20 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds across the five surveys say they’ll vote for him. If that held, it would be the worst performance by a major party nominee among voters under 30 since at least 1952, according to the ANES.

Rather, 18- to 29-year-olds seem to be flirting with third-party candidates more than usual this year. Both Johnson and Stein are polling in the double digits, and Johnson is nearly pulling the same percentage of the under-30 vote as Trump. That shouldn’t necessarily to be too surprising given that younger voters are more likely to identify as independents than are older voters. Younger voters were also much more likely to vote for independent Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary than other age groups were.

With an unusually high share of under-30 voters saying they’ll vote third party, Clinton’s margin over Trump among this age group is lower than we’d expect given how Obama did in the last two election cycles. Per the ANES, Obama won the under-30 crowd by 34 percentage points in 2008 and by 24 points in 2012. Right now, Clinton’s margin over Trump among 18- to -29- year-olds is 21 points. This isn’t a super fair comparison, as we’re putting a pre-election poll which includes undecided voters against a post-election poll of actual voters (with no undecideds, obviously).2 Also, third party candidates have historically lost support as Election Day approaches, so it’s possible some young voters will find their way back to the Democratic Party. But it’s something to keep an eye on.

<snip>

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-and-trump-are-losing-a-lot-of-young-voters/

The big Bernie rallies are returning, but this time, Sen. Sanders will be campaigning in swing states to get Hillary Clinton elected president.

According to The Washington Post:

Sanders, who endorsed Clinton last month, ticked off a list of states that he is likely to hit in coming weeks, including some where he won primaries and caucuses (New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin) and some where he fell short but ran strongly among key segments of the electorate (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada).

Sanders said that during some of those visits he will also campaign on behalf of Democratic Senate candidates, including Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania, Ted Strickland in Ohio and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. He is also planning to campaign for other progressive down-ballot candidates, he said.

<snip>

It is a smart move by both the Clinton campaign and Sen. Sanders to harness the energy of his rallies as the next step towards integrating Sanders supporters and their ideas into the Democratic Party. The Democratic platform has shown that Democrats are serious about welcoming Sanders supporters into the party. With Sen. Sanders transitioning his presidential campaign into a broader progressive movement, the return of the big rallies will not only help Hillary Clinton but also help Sanders keep the momentum going forward on his agenda as well.

<snip>

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/20/bernie-sanders-big-rallies-returning-put-final-nail-trumps-coffin.html

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Response to cali (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:26 AM

1. I think most Bernie supporters

are going to vote for her...some were never going to...they are Greens or even Trump supporters like in WVA where they voted for him but planned on voting for Trump in the GE...I hope she win by double digits and we take Congress.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:34 AM

2. It's good that Bernie is going to campaign for Hillary.

He will add some votes for her in the states where he makes appearances and elsewhere, if the media covers his appearances.

Bernie is a stand-up guy who follows through with what he says he will do. He'll certainly be an asset to the campaign.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:43 AM

3. I suspect that a lot of milennials are on the fence between Clinton and Johnson/Stein

 

They know they're not voting for Trump--ewwww--but are waiting for Clinton to close the sale.

I think Bernie and the debates will help get them off the fence.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:19 AM

5. I think that's accurate. If the debates don't get them off the fence

 

nothing will. I just keep trying to wrap my mind around Trump debating HRC. I can't.

The millennial voters I know, are all friends of my son's and the children of friends. They were all Bernie supporters, and as far as I know, they're all voting for Hillary.

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Response to cali (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:27 AM

7. He's never debated anyone 1-1. Ever.

 

The fewest people he's had on a stage with him has been 3 others--Rubio, Cruz and Kasich.

He's never, ever, ever had to speak that long in depth on a particular subject, and never against someone to the left of Attila the Hun.

Should be fun!

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #7)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:31 AM

8. Hmm. I hadn't thought of that.

 

I really wish that the moderators of the debates didn't have to be solely from TV and could include others from the media- radio, web, print.

I still think there's an outside chance Trump won't debate. If he thinks he can get away with it, he'll find a pretext.

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Response to cali (Reply #8)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:34 AM

9. bully is on the playground with a crowd of kids encouraging him to fight

 

if he walks away, he loses respect
if he gets his ass beat, he loses respect

it's hard out there for a bully

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Response to cali (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 08:48 AM

4. I hope so but I'm a little wary of the third-party factor with young voters.

I used to be a young voter, 2000 was my first adult election, and I remember the appeal of the "both parties suck, let's vote for Nader" message with young people back then. It follows from the the combination of idealism and naivete of youth.

There are differences, of course. First of all, W was not as scary as Trump. But on the other hand, Gore was not as unpopular as Hillary. And another thing is that we were just coming off the economic high times of the 90s, which some people thought would never end no matter who became president.

Needless to say, the Nader/W disaster wisened up my generation pretty quick. That was the event that sparked my interest in politics. I didn't even vote in 2000, I was part of the "who cares, it won't affect my life" contingent, another form of youthful stupidity.

I hope that we don't have to go through something like that every 20 years or so, and that the current crop of 20-something voters figures out that while "a third-party vote is a wasted vote" is not a very inspiring message, it is a factual message.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:23 AM

6. It's so hard to know. And I could well be wrong but millennials seem quite engaged

 

and pretty informed- at least on issues they deem important- this year. I think that by October there will be a lot more millennials swing toward Hillary.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:38 AM

11. A poll last winter of Millennial ENTHUSIASM for

Bernie and Hillary showed it low for both, though the raw numbers showed support for both, Bernie somewhat higher. Low enthuasiasm doesn't get voters out, and frankly I do not believe those elderly Republicans cum Libertarian-lites, Johnson and whatshisface, have what it takes to excite.

I'm hanging my hopes for Millennial turn-out on the other motivator -- Enthusiastic rejection of Trump and what he is seen as standing for. For or against, few are wishy-washy about it.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:39 AM

12. I think the Libertarians have more appeal to milennials than that Quack Stein.

 

Stein doesn't really offer anything but what Clinton is offering in terms of domestic policy, except for premium grade smugness.

the Libertarian stuff is superficially appealing to the live and let live millennials, and his a cleaner break from the fascist Trump and the social democrat Clinton.

I think a discussion of climate change at the debates will be critical to showing them the only real option.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Mon Aug 22, 2016, 09:35 AM

10. I think he can, I hope he will. nt.

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