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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo what do the University of Colorado election 'experts' have to say about themselves?
Their model allegedly accurately predicted every election and they pointed to a Romney landslide.
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So what do the University of Colorado election 'experts' have to say about themselves? (Original Post)
limousineliberal
Nov 2012
OP
still_one
(91,807 posts)1. And where are the media? Crickets
smorkingapple
(827 posts)2. Look at these assholes... lol...
http://polisci.colorado.edu/sites/default/files/Berry_Bickers_2012_Forecast.pdf
As figure 1 shows, the states we predict President Obama will carry include a
substantially reduced set than those he carried in 2008.
5
This is supported by the fact that no
states won by McCain are predicted to flip to Obama. What is striking about our state-level
economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states
currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire,
Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Three other states that might
be viewed as swing states Michigan, New Mexico, and Nevadaare predicted to stay in
Obamas column. Our forecast is that the President will receive 218 Electoral College votes,
putting him well short of the 270 needed to win reelection.
substantially reduced set than those he carried in 2008.
5
This is supported by the fact that no
states won by McCain are predicted to flip to Obama. What is striking about our state-level
economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states
currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire,
Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Three other states that might
be viewed as swing states Michigan, New Mexico, and Nevadaare predicted to stay in
Obamas column. Our forecast is that the President will receive 218 Electoral College votes,
putting him well short of the 270 needed to win reelection.
jody
(26,624 posts)3. Any model outside science is just pure bull shit when it comes to predicting. Explaining the
cause of observed effects for various social and economic questions is just a handful of special cases manipulated with various pseudo statistical techniques to fool the ignorant and downright stupid.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)4. Mea culpa
http://www.denverpost.com/recommended/ci_21953154
Basically they act like the voters made the wrong decision.
Basically they act like the voters made the wrong decision.
JackN415
(924 posts)5. the stuff was debunk a while back. Only the RW kept on quoting it.
OldHippieChick
(2,434 posts)6. The only thing I saw Bickers say today in the Denver Post
was that his model was "wrong". Ya think???