Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

[liberal N proud]

Hillary Clinton has a large and perhaps growing lead in the nation and in many of the predominantly white battleground states where Donald Trump was thought to have his best shot, according to a wave of new surveys released in the last two days.

Three national surveys — from Fox, NBC/WSJ and Marist/McClatchy — showed Mrs. Clinton ahead by big margins: 10, 9 and 15 percentage points. It’s the worst polling stretch for a presidential candidate at this stage since John McCain in mid-October of 2008.

It’s a little hard to make sense of it all, in part because the timing is a little unusual. This ought to be the heart of Mrs. Clinton’s post-convention bounce, when polling analysts generally preach caution. On the other hand, Mr. Trump had a tough week of his own making — drawing condemnation from Republican leaders and even causing a few high-profile defections from donors and the conservative media.

The prudent approach is to wait, and see whether Mrs. Clinton’s lead endures for another week or two — after convention bounces usually fade. In the interim, we can cautiously say that there is more reason than usual to think that Mrs. Clinton’s newfound lead represents a meaningful shift in the race, one that would make a comeback for Mr. Trump seem daunting if it holds.

In general, it’s not worth overthinking post-convention bounces. They don’t necessarily even reflect real shifts in voter attitudes, just changes in how likely people are to respond to surveys. But strong conventions can speed up unification of divided parties and usher in a real shift.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/06/upshot/why-a-meaningful-shift-in-the-trump-clinton-race-may-be-at-hand.html?_r=0

[bananakabob]

1. Because.

The more Trump talks, the bigger the hole gets.

And the more Clinton talks, the more people realise that the spin from the right about her has all been garbage propaganda.

[Journeyman]

2. Trump's nearing the point where he stops digging the hole and . . .

begins pulling in dirt on top of himself.

[BlueStreak]

3. If Georgia is really in play, Trump is in trouble. Watch their itineraries.

The best way to know how the campaign is going is to see where the candidates spend their time. I don't think Trump has a professional team in place, and he doesn't take advice well, so I don't know that we can tell much from his moves at this stage.

But as the campaign goes along, look where Hillary spends her time. At this point, one would expect her to be working the must-have swing states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa. After all, if she gets most of those, she wins.

At some stage, if victory seems likely, many candidates will try to flip other states in order to have a stronger mandate. If you see her working Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Missouri, N Carolina, or S. Carolina, this will be a strong indication that the move is on to push for a big mandate.

This is a good indicator to watch because they really can't wait too long if they think they have a real chance in places like Georgia and Missouri. Soon after Labor Day, this will become relevant. There is nothing very revealing in her schedule at this stage, but one would not expect that yet.
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

[beachbumbob]

4. More than likely the shift is due to voters looking at trump as

Unstable....translate into being unfit

[misterhighwasted]

5. Wish we were in the final week of October with this news.

Hillary needs to keep this great divide of numbers going.

There is no possible way they can rig the voter machines or the votes with this wide a margin.

That is what happened with Bush/Gore.
The vote difference in FL was around 500 votes, which made it possible to put GW in the WHouse.

A margin as wide as it is for Hillary now, means there will not be a close enough call to allow another Bush/Gore finale'.
It cannot be challenged in this case.