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Wed Aug 3, 2016, 08:58 PM

New poll shows Trump with commanding lead over Clinton in Tennessee

In some areas of the Country, Trump's support is actually growing as he has sharpened his attacks on Muslims, Hillary Clinton, establishment Republicans, and reality in general.

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2016/08/02/campaign-watch-new-poll-shows-trump-with.html

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Republican nominee Donald Trump would easily best his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Tennessee, according to a new poll of registered voters.

* * *

In a survey conducted from July 25-27 (during the Democratic National Convention), 49 percent of respondents favored Trump compared to 33 percent in favor of Clinton. Eighteen percent said they were undecided.

The poll showed strong party support for both candidates, but Trump also outpaced Clinton in this area: 88 percent of Tennessee Republicans supported their party's nominee, compared to 80 percent support among Tennessee Democrats for the former secretary of state.

Mark Keida, icitizen's vice president of polling and research, said the poll's biggest takeaway is that Trump has strengthened his support among Republican voters in Tennessee, with 32 percent of supporters saying they "strongly" favor Trump compared to 23 percent of Democratic voters favoring Clinton with the same intensity.

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Reply New poll shows Trump with commanding lead over Clinton in Tennessee (Original post)
TomCADem Aug 2016 OP
Ilsa Aug 2016 #1
glennward Aug 2016 #4
Ilsa Aug 2016 #47
Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #54
yeoman6987 Aug 2016 #9
eastsidemanglerNY Aug 2016 #12
oberliner Aug 2016 #13
pnwmom Aug 2016 #15
JI7 Aug 2016 #36
sufrommich Aug 2016 #41
Ilsa Aug 2016 #45
Squinch Aug 2016 #57
Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #51
Ilsa Aug 2016 #60
Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #61
Ilsa Aug 2016 #65
MyNameGoesHere Aug 2016 #67
geek tragedy Aug 2016 #2
KMOD Aug 2016 #3
TeddyR Aug 2016 #5
MFM008 Aug 2016 #21
TeddyR Aug 2016 #22
Cali_Democrat Aug 2016 #28
molova Aug 2016 #32
TeddyR Aug 2016 #34
molova Aug 2016 #44
Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #52
Squinch Aug 2016 #58
yardwork Aug 2016 #42
TeddyR Aug 2016 #63
molova Aug 2016 #49
molova Aug 2016 #26
TeddyR Aug 2016 #35
molova Aug 2016 #43
Demsrule86 Aug 2016 #53
Squinch Aug 2016 #59
TeddyR Aug 2016 #62
Squinch Aug 2016 #64
AirmensMom Aug 2016 #6
AgadorSparticus Aug 2016 #25
cheapdate Aug 2016 #29
DemonGoddess Aug 2016 #38
Lars39 Aug 2016 #40
okieinpain Aug 2016 #50
VMA131Marine Aug 2016 #7
CajunBlazer Aug 2016 #17
CajunBlazer Aug 2016 #19
VMA131Marine Aug 2016 #23
dubyadiprecession Aug 2016 #8
MFM008 Aug 2016 #10
Orcrist Aug 2016 #11
Libby2 Aug 2016 #14
cheapdate Aug 2016 #30
Libby2 Aug 2016 #66
JaneyVee Aug 2016 #16
unitedwethrive Aug 2016 #33
MelSC Aug 2016 #18
CajunBlazer Aug 2016 #20
LenaBaby61 Aug 2016 #24
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Aug 2016 #31
Garrett78 Aug 2016 #27
JI7 Aug 2016 #37
B Calm Aug 2016 #39
book_worm Aug 2016 #46
spanone Aug 2016 #48
liberal N proud Aug 2016 #55
whatthehey Aug 2016 #56
Justice Aug 2016 #68

Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:01 PM

1. This worries me.

I think some people just get used to the insanity and go back to favoring the racist ass.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:03 PM

4. I believe we can win it without TN. nt

 

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Response to glennward (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:42 AM

47. I'm worried about the overall possibility that

a lot of voters in the middle in many states will get accustomed to Trump's craziness and start blowing it off and vote for him. I'm afraid they'll buy into the excuses that he'll be "handled" by family as president. I worry that for voters, his authoritarianism and big male presence will win out over his irrational behavior.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #47)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:56 AM

54. Worried? nt

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:23 PM

9. Has Tennessee ever gone democratic?

 

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Response to yeoman6987 (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:47 PM

12. RE: Has Tennessee ever gone democratic?

The 1996 Clinton/Gore reelection was the last time Tennessee voted Democratic. Gore/Lieberman didn't carry TN in 2000 (especially considering that it's Al's home state) and has consistently voted Republican ever since.

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Response to yeoman6987 (Reply #9)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:48 PM

13. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 and 1992

Pretty handily both times.

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Response to oberliner (Reply #13)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 10:38 PM

15. Both Al Gore and his father were popular Senators from Tennessee. So that was no surprise. n/t

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #15)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 03:34 AM

36. his father lost for being too liberal and Gore was seen as more conservative, and since then

Tennessee has gone much more conservative which is why Gore lost .

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 05:46 AM

41. Tennessee worries you? Did you think we'd win that state?

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Response to sufrommich (Reply #41)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:40 AM

45. No, just the overall possibility that

a lot of voters in the middle in many states will get accustomed to Trump's craziness and start blowing it off and vote for him. I'm afraid they'll buy into the excuses that he'll be "handled" by family as president. I worry that for voters, his authoritarianism and big male presence will win out over his irrational behavior.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #45)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 07:37 AM

57. I hear what you are saying, but I am confident in Donald's ability to keep disgusting people anew.

He is up to the task of keeping the disgust fresh.

But you are right in that the worst thing we can do is be complacent.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:45 AM

51. Your concern is noted

However, when was the last time any Dem took Tennessee? That would be 1996. When the Dems swept the GOP out of office and Gingrich resigned as a result (impeachment outrage). The Dems have taken Tennessee 3 times in 36 years-1976(Watergate),1992 (Ross Perot),and 1996(Clinton impeachment). Why you would think a state with this voting history would go for Hillary is puzzling. All the good news and you are so concerned about this one poll in a red, red state?

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #51)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 07:43 AM

60. No, not this one poll. I'm concerned about the next

96 days (or whatever is left). I do worry about low information voters changing their minds, new smears and "leaks", and possibly Trump pulling together his speeches and attacks. We have a long way to go, and voters can be fickle. I hope and pray and will work for maintaining this lead, but we also know the gop loves dirty tricks and ratfucking.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #60)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 08:17 AM

61. It is early days

Polls will go up and polls will go down. We could lose the lead and get it back, we could ride the lead until November. The polls were mostly wrong in 12. But it is demoralizing to concentrate on bad news in my opinion...have you seen the good polls? A poll captures a moment in time...by the time we even see it...there has been a change. We can work very hard to elect Sec. Clinton. I find it hard to believe Trump could win, but I know hate sells...thus I am all in.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #61)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 08:41 AM

65. I'm optimistic, but also realistic.

Been through so many, since 1976 for my first presidential GE. I just wish the election was next week!

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 09:54 AM

67. You're right and damn Indiana favors tRump too!

Fuck it's all over we lost.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:01 PM

2. Tennessee Republicans embracing a bigoted asshole?

 

Never would have guessed.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:02 PM

3. Tennessee is pretty red.

 

Romney got 60% to President Obama's 40%.

So 49%-33% isn't too bad this early in the game, considering.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:10 PM

5. Civitas/SUSA poll today has Trump +4 in North Carolina

 

So not just Tennessee.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 11:04 PM

21. Just 2 matter

Florida
Virginia.

The rest can eat

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #21)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 11:06 PM

22. Perhaps

 

But if Hillary can't carry Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado then way more than 2 matter.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #22)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:25 AM

28. No way Hillary loses Nevada and Colorado. nt

 

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #28)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:42 AM

32. Teddy seems concerned

But is he?

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Response to molova (Reply #32)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 03:31 AM

34. If you aren't you should be

 

But are you

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #34)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:36 AM

44. I'm not. Not at all

I think you are concerned, just not because you think Hillary is in danger of losing.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #34)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:47 AM

52. Why?

early days...such angst is demoralizing and not helpful.

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Response to molova (Reply #32)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 07:38 AM

58. He often seems that way...

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #22)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:29 AM

42. Concern trolls are no longer welcome on DU.

If you see a concern troll, please alert on their posts. Thanks.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #42)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 08:27 AM

63. I'm not sure how to identify a "concern troll"

 

Please enlighten me so I'll know which posts to alert on and let me know what TOS is violated.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #22)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:43 AM

49. Sorry Teddy, Hillary now up 15% in New Hampshire

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll

And your alleged concern in Colorado has no basis whatsoever due to Hillary's lead there in the latest CO polls.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:21 AM

26. No cell phones

Criticized by experts.

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Response to molova (Reply #26)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 03:32 AM

35. I've noticed a curious phenomenon here

 

Every time a poll shows Hillary behind it is "criticized by experts," and if a poll shows her ahead nobody says a thing about its accuracy

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #35)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:32 AM

43. Are you denying this poll was criticized by experts?

I know you saw the links to experts criticizing the NC poll.
You are curiously annoyed by criticism of a poll finding Hillary behind. Why?

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #35)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:52 AM

53. Why would we tear apart a positive poll?

We want Hillary to win and would not engage in an activity certain to demoralize the base. Also, I don't post about it but I look at all polls internals. I am a math person so if the information pertaining the poll is there I can evaluate it somewhat. Right now she is ahead in states that matter. Tennessee is not one that matters.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #35)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 07:39 AM

59. Why don't you take on that task? You go ahead and be the positive poll debunker.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #59)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 08:26 AM

62. I don't feel a need to debunk one poll

 

Or justify the results of another. I take them for what they are - a snapshot of electorate opinion on a certain day. The concern is when there is a trend, like the trend of Trump catching Hill leading up to and immediately after the Republican convention. The trend certainly seems much more favorable now.

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Response to TeddyR (Reply #62)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 08:33 AM

64. Still. You are concerned about the fact that no one is sufficiently negative

about positive polls. You are concerned that when a negative poll shows up, we look for reasons why it might not be valid.

You are concerned that no one set their hair on fire over the miniscule RNC bump "trend".

You totally ought to do something about that. Because of your concerns.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:10 PM

6. I live in TN.

There are Trump signs everywhere. This place is unbelievably racist and ignorant. I don't mean to paint with a broad brush, but really ... Many of the people in this area are a perfect example of why we need to invest more in education and tax the churches for preaching politics from the pulpit. They "like that Trump speaks his mind" but couldn't say what it is that Trump actually plans to do if elected. And the women vote Republican because their moms tell them to. Then they say, "I really don't pay any attention, but I don't like Hillary."

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Response to AirmensMom (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:20 AM

25. How absolutely frustrating and annoying.

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Response to AirmensMom (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:26 AM

29. Hello from Murfreesboro!

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Response to AirmensMom (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 03:39 AM

38. arrrgh

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Response to AirmensMom (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 05:31 AM

40. Seeing the same.

Utterly depressing right now here in TN.

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Response to AirmensMom (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:45 AM

50. +1 n/t

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:19 PM

7. The North Carolina Poll looks like an outlier

SUSA is the only repeated poll that consistently shows Trump leading. They must have a weird voter model:

[url=https://flic.kr/p/KnKJFf][img][/img][/url]

more at: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/north-carolina/#now

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Response to VMA131Marine (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 10:48 PM

17. Actually, No, that is no longer correct

Nate Silver's predictions for North Carolina have flipped completely since July 31st. He now shows Clinton in the lead 56.2% to 43.8% for Trump in the polls he has adjusted for bias. .

Silver is now giving Hillary a 51.8% chance of winning NC in November with Trump having a 48.2% chance of winning.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #17)


Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #17)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 11:06 PM

23. I'm aware of that

that snapshot I posted is directly from the FiveThirtyEight Now-Cast for North Carolina. The new poll is included in the projection, but the project is still that Hillary would win if the election were held today.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:20 PM

8. In Tennessee, they still think the sun goes to bed at night..

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)


Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 09:46 PM

11. Screw Tennessee

 

Al Gore lost in Tennessee back in 2000 and it was his home state. I don't think that it's a place Democrats like us should spend much time worrying about. We aren't going to win it but thankfully we don't need it.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 10:28 PM

14. I'm not surprised

says the woman that lives in the land of Scott DeJarlais and Sheila Butt.

It's so discouraging and frustrating.

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Response to Libby2 (Reply #14)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:28 AM

30. And Diane Black and Marsha Blackburn.

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Response to cheapdate (Reply #30)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 09:50 AM

66. Yes, sadly, them too. n/t

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 10:41 PM

16. Wait until they debate.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #16)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 02:39 AM

33. Exactly!

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 10:50 PM

18. Makes sense I live in this shit state

Nt

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Wed Aug 3, 2016, 11:00 PM

20. Big Frinking deal

Did any one give Hillary any chance of winning Tennessee 11 electoral votes? Does anyone care? And guess what, Trump also has an excellent chance of winning Alabama's 9 electoral votes. Who cares? Those states haven't voted for a Democrat since Clinton/Gore and Gore was a Tennessee native.

Meanwhile Silver is giving Hillary a 98.% chance of picking u[p California's 55 electoral votes and 98.6% chance of winning New York's 29 electoral votes

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:15 AM

24. It is the state of...

Marsha Blackburn.



Need I say more? That woman is a truly NASTY, VILE and DUMB piece of work.

IF we get out and work hard and don't become complainant, vote and GOTV and don't lean too heavily on polling favoring Hillary NOW or LATER on this fall, we should be "okay" without Tennessee's 11 electoral votes.

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Response to LenaBaby61 (Reply #24)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:30 AM

31. God, I hate that woman....

Such a smug, smarmy worm who lies with zero hesitation.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 12:23 AM

27. The Dem candidate has lost TN by an average of ~17 percentage points...

...over the last 3 presidential elections. And Romney won TN by more than 20 points. White, male, veteran John Kerry lost TN by 14 points.

Even Gore lost TN.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 03:37 AM

37. this is comparable to a poll showing the Democratic Pres Candidate is leading in Massachusetts

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 03:44 AM

39. It's the bible belt. I guess Trump in their eyes will save the unborn.

 

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:41 AM

46. Trump is even running behind Romney in TN--in 2012 Romney won by 20 points

Hey, Democrats aren't going to win them all. There are some states, Tennessee among them, that will vote GOP no matter what.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 06:42 AM

48. well, the stupid here is pretty thick

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 07:18 AM

55. Trump is a Duck Dynasty candidate

That plays well in Tennessee

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 07:29 AM

56. Well sure. He'll win KY and WV too

And of course plenty more besides that particular region - most of the usual big red L.

But you are just as much President with a fairly safe 290+ and likely 330-350 as you would be with 500+ EVs. Losing deep red states is neither a surprise nor a worry.

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Response to TomCADem (Original post)

Thu Aug 4, 2016, 09:55 AM

68. Poll taken before end of DNC Convention. Clinton would never win TN; Trump should be crushing

it but he is not. Wonder what poll would look like from TN today?

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