Why does Mitt lead in Illinois and Rick in Wisconsin

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Amazing the difference in two neighboring states. Guess Chicago makes
a huge difference
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Republican Primary Projections
Updated March 16, 2012 at 2:08 PM ET

Illinois
Mar. 20 VOTE PROJECTION

Mitt Romney 41.7%
Rick Santorum 33.4
Newt Gingrich 15.1


Wisconsin
Apr. 3 VOTE PROJECTION

Rick Santorum 45.9%
Mitt Romney 28.8
Newt Gingrich 11.8

[Dawson Leery]

1. Wisconsin's sizable ex-burbs are a haven of "Christian" mega-madrassas

[KharmaTrain]

2. Millard Always Seems To Do Well...

...in places he'll lose if he's the nominee in November. Here in Illinois his "strength" is in the Chicago and St. Louis areas while Rectorum gets his strength downstate, but never enough to counteract the large population north of Interstate 80. The interesting thing will be turnout...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. that's a good point...it's almost like he is the "democrat" in this primary. nt

[Proud Public Servant]

3. Mitt wins urban areas

It's been true throughout the run so far, except in Newt's Georgia. Cook County and the collar counties are Mitt country, and quite populous; FrothyMix will take downstate, but it won't be enough. Wisconsin is less urban, and so more Froth-friendly.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. right. this is from today's Chicago Trib

Almost three-quarters of the state's Republican vote is traditionally cast in the Chicago area. Downstate Republicans are typically more conservative than their suburban counterparts, a difference Santorum sought to exploit in Effingham, a city more than 200 miles south of Chicago at the intersection of Interstates 57 and 7

[HereSince1628]

4. Two things I think are in play...

Last edited Fri Mar 16, 2012, 04:52 PM - Edit history (1)

1) The largest religious denomination in Wisconsin is Roman Catholic. Santorum is Catholic.

2) If 2010-2012 has shown anything, it is that this state's republicans prefer their leaders to have an authoritarian streak. Mitt is way to moderate for them.

[WI_DEM]

5. Santorum also won neighboring MN & Iowa--I would say the burbs in Chicago

are where Mitt's strength are while Ricky's are downstate in more rural areas. But again, Santorum often does better in the actual election than in the polls.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. that's a good point....I bet Sanitarium pulls out a win in Illinois too....he's not far behind. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Same reason, probably, why Wisconsin has generally been a more swing state than Illinois...

Obama won it by a sizable margin in '08, but before that, Kerry only won it by .4% and Gore won it by .22% in 2000. It's got some pretty conservative areas.

[hayrow1]

7. The Catholic population in Wisconsin is a signifiantly larger, percentage wise, than Illinois

[charlyvi]

12. But Santorum is not winning the Catholic vote.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_03/santorum_and_the_catholic_vote035878.php#

Ed Kilgore reports that, in every state so far, Romney has outperformed Santorum among Catholics. Go figure.

[musicblind]

10. I think Santorum is going to pull out a win in Illinois.

I'm not a polling expert, but he keeps underperforming in polls (even exit polls) and then making it by a hair on election night.

[Mr.Turnip]

11. Wisconsin is a more conservative less urban state.

Also Newt is pulling in more of the vote in Illinois which really hurts Santorum who is only slightly behind Romney with Newt pulling in 15% still.

Newt hates Romney so much that he's going to hand him the nomination HA!

I think IL will end up like OH with Santorum winning all but like 5 counties and coming in 1 or 2% Romney with Newt pulling in low double digits (thus giving Romney the win)

or maybe Santorum will outdo the polls like he tends to do since a large chunk of Romney's voters simply don't care enough about him to actually turn out for him.