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Nate Silver Calls Bullshit on Reports of Convention Chaos
This is from a live stream of commentary that 538 is doing, so hopefully this doesn't fall under the 4 paragraph max rule.
A Reality-Check On The Mood In The Convention
Following up on Jody’s note below: I saw a lot of commentary earlier today about the negative mood at the Wells Fargo Center. In particular, there were a lot of reports along these lines which seemed to imply that the delegates had turned on Clinton:
But when I arrived on the convention floor at around 5 p.m. — after a lot of these tweets were sent out, I should point out, so it’s possible that the mood had changed — that wasn’t really the vibe I picked up.
Instead, I saw an atmosphere that might best be described as “charged,” in the sense of being a bit eclectic, a bit raucous and a little unpredictable. There’s a lot of enthusiasm for Sanders in the hall, perhaps more than there is for Clinton.
But contrary to those earlier reports, there wasn’t a lot of booing when Clinton’s name was mentioned. Certainly, there were some boos coming from some delegations, some of the time — California and Michigan, in particular, and were relatively vocal. But this was in isolated pockets. The booers were usually drowned out by cheers for Clinton, sometimes enthusiastic cheers, especially if the speaker was keeping people engaged. The California delegation is located right next to where a lot of the major networks have their sets, I should point out, which is inconvenient for Clinton.
There are also more specific demonstrations of one kind or another: lots of anti-TPP signs, a few Palestinian flags, and forth. Democratic activists are an eclectic bunch, with perhaps a wider diversity of causes and interests than Republican ones, and less reverence for authority, and that was reflected on the floor.
But it’s not 1968, or anything like that, at least not yet. I think those impressions are misleading, based on what I saw and heard myself. There’s certainly the potential for things to get rowdy and disruptive, and I’d bet on there being at least some hiccups over the course of the four days of the program. I’d also bet on there being higher emotional highs than we saw at the RNC, and generally a more engaged audience. It’s a high-risk convention for Democrats, but also a high-reward convention; there’s the possibility that Democrats come out of this feeling as fractured as ever and also the chance they feel pretty great by Thursday night. The reception for Sanders, Michelle Obama and Elizabeth Warren tonight may set the tone for the rest of the week.
Following up on Jody’s note below: I saw a lot of commentary earlier today about the negative mood at the Wells Fargo Center. In particular, there were a lot of reports along these lines which seemed to imply that the delegates had turned on Clinton:
But when I arrived on the convention floor at around 5 p.m. — after a lot of these tweets were sent out, I should point out, so it’s possible that the mood had changed — that wasn’t really the vibe I picked up.
Instead, I saw an atmosphere that might best be described as “charged,” in the sense of being a bit eclectic, a bit raucous and a little unpredictable. There’s a lot of enthusiasm for Sanders in the hall, perhaps more than there is for Clinton.
But contrary to those earlier reports, there wasn’t a lot of booing when Clinton’s name was mentioned. Certainly, there were some boos coming from some delegations, some of the time — California and Michigan, in particular, and were relatively vocal. But this was in isolated pockets. The booers were usually drowned out by cheers for Clinton, sometimes enthusiastic cheers, especially if the speaker was keeping people engaged. The California delegation is located right next to where a lot of the major networks have their sets, I should point out, which is inconvenient for Clinton.
There are also more specific demonstrations of one kind or another: lots of anti-TPP signs, a few Palestinian flags, and forth. Democratic activists are an eclectic bunch, with perhaps a wider diversity of causes and interests than Republican ones, and less reverence for authority, and that was reflected on the floor.
But it’s not 1968, or anything like that, at least not yet. I think those impressions are misleading, based on what I saw and heard myself. There’s certainly the potential for things to get rowdy and disruptive, and I’d bet on there being at least some hiccups over the course of the four days of the program. I’d also bet on there being higher emotional highs than we saw at the RNC, and generally a more engaged audience. It’s a high-risk convention for Democrats, but also a high-reward convention; there’s the possibility that Democrats come out of this feeling as fractured as ever and also the chance they feel pretty great by Thursday night. The reception for Sanders, Michelle Obama and Elizabeth Warren tonight may set the tone for the rest of the week.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/democratic-convention-live-coverage-of-day-one/?#livepress-update-23921631
15 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
lol
"These delegates, from California, are really sort of the epicenter of the #NeverHillary crowd tonight. But there just aren’t very many of them, and you have to get pretty close to hear the boos."
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