I'm beginning to wonder if Trump will end up with a negative convention bounce

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

Between the plagiarized speech, the Christie witch trial bit and the Cruz booing, every night has had its own train wreck.
Hopefully, this mess scares Americans away from the wannabe fuhrer.

[MoonRiver]

1. That could be called a convention thud!

And I'm starting to believe it will happen.

[C_U_L8R]

2. There are a lot of horrified people out there

who are absolutely disgusted by the GOP hateshow.
There are also some who's inner clansman is delighted.
If previous opinion polls are any measure, the right wingers
should be a small and shrinking minority. But history
shows us again and again that waves of fascism and
bigotry can sweep up a nation in a sort of madness.
That's Trumps playbook and we need to defeat him...
No we need to destroy him if we hope to win.

Back to your question, I hope the are enough good
people paying attention to drive Trumps polls down.

[PatSeg]

3. I was wondering the same thing

I think it would depend on how it goes tonight.

[CrowCityDem]

4. Romney only got a 1.4 pt bounce. I never thought Trump would get much of one.

[DetlefK]

5. You have to weigh it against the DNC-convention.

The convention is for showing off and attracting more voters. Except that the RNC-convention is about hyping up the people that would have voted GOP anyways. (Even if you vote as hard as you can, it's still just one vote.) No Independent and no undecided voter will vote GOP because of that dumpster-fire.

If the DNC-convention is even marginally better (which should be very, very easy), if they can play to themes like jobs&economy they can draw working-class voters, if they can play to themes like rights&freedoms they can draw left and minority-voters, if they can play to national-security they can draw even moderate republican voters.

The RNC-convention will end without new voters for Trump.
The DNC-convention will end with new voters for Clinton.
And in comparison it will be a net-win for Clinton.

[KingCharlemagne]

7. Sane Republicans (I know, oxymoron) may not pull the lever for

HRC, but they might instead stay home or vote for Johnson and the Libertarians.

[Wounded Bear]

13. I agree...

Trump has been doing nothing but pandering to his base so far. I see no outreach for moderates/centrists at all.

I've heard/read of some plans for Bernie-backers to be disruptive, but I don't envision this kind of shit storm at the DNC. Some cycles it is hard to keep the campaign focused on issues. If they succeed at that, Dems will win hands down. If the media lets the Hillary bashing get out of hand, it could get dicey.

That's my only concern, if the media promotes the emotional bullshit for ratings and stops reporting on issues, they could screw us and the country.

[Eric J in MN]

6. Chris Christie's ugly speech made me more pro-HRC

...(since Trump would probably make Christie USAG) but I don't know the speech's overall impact. Maybe it will help Trump overall by motivating undecided Republicans to get behind Trump in hatred of HRC.

[jcgoldie]

11. The people in that hall have definitely galvanized around hatred of HRC

We keep hearing how fractured they are and we've heard zero positive message to bring them together. Yet they seemed pretty universally angered by Ted Cruz. Remember 2 months ago when we were hearing how Cruz had secretly secured a majority of delegates in preparation for a floor fight? Most of them seem to have turned on him pretty damned fast after 3 nights of fanning their hatred for Clinton.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

8. The media would need something to replace their 'horserace' with.

[Adrahil]

10. I think being in awe of the Trump dumpster fire might do it.

Just have to get them to believe it will draw the viewers.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

15. I think it would need to be some sort of drama that continues developing, like an evolving scandal.

They invested good money in those 'Breaking News' graphics and dammit they're going to use them.

[Adrahil]

9. Was thinking that.

Steve Kornacki did a piece a couple days ago where he is talking about historic convention bump trends, and he was saying that in a "normal" year, Trump might expect to actually take a slight lead in the national polls due to a bump, but that this isn't a normal year, or anything LIKE a normal convention. He speculated that Trump might not get a bump at all. He did not speculate a negative bump (dip?) but after this shitshow, I think it's a distinct possibility.

[yellowcanine]

12. Reminds me a bit of the 1992 RNC convention when Pat Buchanan made his fascist speech.

Poppy Bush basically never recovered after that - and that was only one speech. This convention has had a shit storm every day so far and there is no reason to think that today will be different. Trump will not be able to resist settling some scores in his speech. It is what he does.

[Ace Rothstein]

14. I think after the conventions that we'll be right back where we were in June.