Nate's update tonight, sort of a MAJOR DEAL what else changed.......

[Logical]

Nate moved Ohio from 'Likely Obama' to 'SAFE OBAMA'. This means he is no longer treating it s a competitive state!! It is an Obama state.

So the only 'Competitive States' left are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia.

What is a bigger deal is if you add up only the 'Safe Obama' states it equals 271 Electoral Votes! This is HUGE!

You will notice all the 'Safe Obama' states have a greater than 90% chance of Obama winning!

If you add up the 'Safe Obama' states and the 'Likely Obama' states it equals 303 Electoral Votes!

[ProudProgressiveNow]

1. Thank you!

[yellowcanine]

2. Hugh, I say!

[Cha]

3. Thank you, Logical

[MSMITH33156]

4. LOL

I was looking for Ohio on the right bar, then realized it wasn't a competitive state anymore.

[Logical]

18. Me too, surprised me! n-t

[Manifestor_of_Light]

5. Safe EVs at 271 ---can you say "Coasting to victory"?????

Only takes 270 to WIN.

[Logical]

6. yep!!!!!!

[LukeFL]

14. GOD BLESS THE USA.

I am crying Here folks.

I LOVE ALL OF YOU. I love PRESIDENT OBAMA.

[courseofhistory]

7. Movin' on Up! n/t

[Doctor Jack]

8. Damn!

Good find

[Bjorn Against]

9. If Obama does not win Ohio it will be because of Jon Husted

I don't trust Ohio is safe when a guy who does not want to count the votes is in charge of counting the votes, people need to make sure they vote because the more votes there are for Obama the harder it is for them to steal.

[cleduc]

10. Any forecast that Nate gave a 90% or more chance

has never failed to come to pass.

[Logical]

11. Good point! Now all we need to do is GOTV!!!

[amborin]

13. +10000

[tevolit]

17. Some should FAIL

The 10% side should win 1 in ten if the forecast is accurate.

5% should come to pass 1 in 20.

So, how many predictions of between 5 and 10%, approximately, has Nate made?

[leftynyc]

21. Awww, you're cute

Try a different board - you wont upset any people here. We'll just find you amusing - like a pet.

[DireStrike]

22. But the poster is 100% correct.

If a prediction of 90% doesn't mean a 10% failure rate, then it doesn't mean anything.

Nate would probably be dismayed if his numbers worked like that, and he'd change the formula. I want to look at it now, when I get home.

That 10% represents things like the polls being systematically biased for Obama (hah!) And gop election fraud (which nate frustratingly won't touch with a ten foot pole.)

[tevolit]

24. Exceptions

I remembered why it could be that there would be 100's in a row that fall in the 90 before a 10.

If many of Nates predictions are correlated, as they are for these states, then when there does turn out to be a bias many of the 10's could come in all at once.

So, it makes sense that there could be long stretches of no "failures".

But, out of curiosity, approximately how many 90 to 95% chance items have there been, other than these presidential situations?

[DireStrike]

28. I can't find this data easily. I will try again later and if all else fails, write to Mr. Silver for

it.

[fiorello]

23. No worries: Obama is just as like to score unexpected wins

... Also, win probability is much greater than 90% for many of the Obama states.

So if Obama has a small chance to lose a safe state - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota - he also has a small chance of picking up a sahe-for-the-bad-guys state - Indiana, Georgia, Arizona.

Plus a swing state like North Carolina.

That's why Nate's overall probability adds to 95%.

[amborin]

12. hurrah! k and r

[faithfulcitizen]

15. that's a BFD!

[budkin]

16. Fuck yes

We got this!

[TroyD]

19. I don't understand how Nate can declare OHIO "Safe" for Obama

How do we know it's Safe until he wins there?

Until we can be sure that there isn't any funny business going on with Husted & the computer software, isn't there the possibility of a loss?

Btw, I'm surprised Nate has now put Florida into light blue. I thought Romney was ahead in most of the Florida polls.

Anyway, bottom line is that I'd much rather be in Obama's position than Romney's!

[abumbyanyothername]

29. Troy -- the handwringing is wearing a little thin at this point.

I never thought you were a concern troll, despite the charges leveled.

But now . . . . .

[Major Hogwash]

20. But, what about West Virginia?

I want all of them to be blue!!

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

25. If it's any consolation, I voted in W.Va. Saturday

Obama supporters do exist here, contrary to what the coal barons and the racists would have you believe.

[Logical]

26. I think we will lose WV

[Myrina]

27. Interesting that this geek is the new DU "Justin Bieber"

Girlies all swooning an' shit. If he was consistently predicting for Robme, would there be such a cult of adoration here? Doubt it.

He's a numbers geek, just like so many others. That his numbers point in our direction makes him no more "Godlike" than any other number geek, yet DU is worshiping at his feet like he's the freakin' Oracle at Delphi.

Jeeze, people, THINK with your own brains for a minute or two!!!

[Bake]

30. No, it's not Nate personally. Nothing godlike there.

He's a numbers geek. And we like numbers. Especially the number 271.

As The Count would say, "AH! AH! AH!"



Bake

[Bernardo de La Paz]

31. Doesn't add up. 303 + 286 = 589 > 538 total electoral votes. (>80% projection) What do I miss?

[FSogol]

32. Say it with me: Landslide, landslide, landslide, landslide!

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