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Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:19 AM

 

Already 1 million ballots have been declared invalid in California, 2.5 million still uncounted

According to the California Secretary of State Alex Padilla himself, as of Thursday afternoon, more than 6 million ballots have already been counted, and it is estimated that the number will climb to 8.5 million From the LA Times article:

More than 2.5 million ballots were left uncounted on election day across California, a process that could take several days or longer and leave close races in limbo.

Secretary of State Alex Padilla posted a report late Thursday on unprocessed ballots. Most of that total -- about 1.8 million -- were mailed to voters but returned only on Tuesday.

Six million ballots have already been counted from the statewide primary. The uncounted tally would push total voter turnout to about 8.5 million, or around 47% of all registered voters.

Los Angeles County had more unprocessed ballots than anywhere, about 616,000. San Diego County reported 285,000 uncounted ballots.

A portion of the unprocessed total are provisional ballots -- designated for voters whose registration status can't be immediately verified on election day. If a provisional ballot is later found to have been cast mistakenly, it may not be counted.


But at the same time at 7:31 PM on Thursday, there were 1,703,000 Republican valid votes and 3.550,000 Democratic valid votes which makes a total of 5.2 million recorded valid votes.

But if more than 6M ballots had been already processed at that time and only 5.2M valid votes recorded, that means that more or less 1 million ballots must have been declared invalid. Don't forget that sentence in the article:

"If a provisional ballot is later found to have been cast mistakenly, it may not be counted."


Hey wake up all! 1 million votes (probably for Bernie) have already been thrown into the trashcan!



And this continues as we speak! As I mentioned in a comment in this post, I have noticed that the number of uncounted ballots is continuing to decrease steadily but the total of the counted ballots only increases very little. Just by looking at the numbers from time to time, I am estimating that the number of counted ballots increases at a third of the rate of the decrease of uncounted ballots.

This is continuing with the 2.5 million still uncounted ballots!


To verify how much votes are being stolen, let us measure it in a very simple way: let's take the official counted ballot number as being published and time-stamped "reporting as of June 9, 2016, 4:49 p.m":
- Bernie = 1,528,853
- Clinton = 1,977,908
- sum of other candidates = 32,650

Let us also keep the official number of the unprocessed ballot report as being published and time-stamped "Updated: 06/09/2016 5:16 p.m."
Unprocessed ballots = 2,586,331

The measures are not too far apart in time. Please note that the 2.5M uncounted ballots number mentioned by Secretary Padilla matches perfectly the number in the official report that is time-stamped just before Secretary Padilla's speech. We can then be pretty sure that the other numbers he mentioned are also correct. I will go and get the numbers on a regular basis and post them here. Thus, we will be able to compare these measures each day for the next days and we will see how many votes were stolen from Bernie.


https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4nfdp7/already_1_million_ballots_have_been_declared/

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Reply Already 1 million ballots have been declared invalid in California, 2.5 million still uncounted (Original post)
J_J_ Jun 2016 OP
tonyt53 Jun 2016 #1
J_J_ Jun 2016 #3
Adrahil Jun 2016 #5
tonyt53 Jun 2016 #6
PJMcK Jun 2016 #51
HooptieWagon Jun 2016 #54
NurseJackie Jun 2016 #11
scscholar Jun 2016 #33
NurseJackie Jun 2016 #34
scscholar Jun 2016 #36
NurseJackie Jun 2016 #37
Retrograde Jun 2016 #40
onenote Jun 2016 #49
leftynyc Jun 2016 #18
Skink Jun 2016 #20
leftynyc Jun 2016 #21
Scuba Jun 2016 #2
randome Jun 2016 #4
TexasTowelie Jun 2016 #7
Surya Gayatri Jun 2016 #13
Fresh_Start Jun 2016 #32
TexasTowelie Jun 2016 #45
Fresh_Start Jun 2016 #48
TexasTowelie Jun 2016 #50
Retrograde Jun 2016 #55
Fresh_Start Jun 2016 #56
livetohike Jun 2016 #8
J_J_ Jun 2016 #16
leftynyc Jun 2016 #19
ContinentalOp Jun 2016 #27
onenote Jun 2016 #44
FSogol Jun 2016 #9
bahrbearian Jun 2016 #10
TwilightZone Jun 2016 #12
hughee99 Jun 2016 #14
J_J_ Jun 2016 #17
hughee99 Jun 2016 #23
onecaliberal Jun 2016 #53
onenote Jun 2016 #38
Tarc Jun 2016 #15
Starry Messenger Jun 2016 #22
workinclasszero Jun 2016 #24
Sheepshank Jun 2016 #25
ContinentalOp Jun 2016 #26
onenote Jun 2016 #39
Fresh_Start Jun 2016 #28
ContinentalOp Jun 2016 #31
Agnosticsherbet Jun 2016 #29
ContinentalOp Jun 2016 #30
Retrograde Jun 2016 #42
onenote Jun 2016 #35
Retrograde Jun 2016 #41
onenote Jun 2016 #43
Lord Magus Jun 2016 #46
MyNameGoesHere Jun 2016 #47
FloridaBlues Jun 2016 #52

Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:21 AM

1. Be careful what you wish for, Bernie will likely lose by more.

 

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Response to tonyt53 (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:24 AM

3. since they are throwing out provisional ballots voting for Bernie

 

I am sure you are correct.

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:27 AM

5. How do you know that?

 

Anal extraction? You are making shit up without any evidence. You are like a Climate Truther, claiming crap because it's "obvious."

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:28 AM

6. Proof please. The voters were given plenty of notice and opportunity to have the right ballot

 

It appears that many were acting as they have in the past elections, just ignoring those instructions or not voting at all. An ill-informed voter is a poor voter.

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Response to tonyt53 (Reply #6)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 04:20 PM

51. Great point

"An ill-informed voter is a poor voter." The Founding Fathers would agree with you. So do I, tonyt53.

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Response to tonyt53 (Reply #6)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 04:48 PM

54. Typical Brockoli...not wanting votes counted.

 

Used to be a just a Republican theme, until Hillary hired ex-republicans for scriptwriters.

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:42 AM

11. There's no way to know this. If, after review, a provisional ballot is not eligible to be counted...

... it's destroyed without being opened.

You guys are really something. Get it out of your system now ... the 16th is not that far away.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #11)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:01 PM

33. Unopened? Ha!

 

Just like here in Washington state where our ballets are supposed to be thrown away without opening? I've confirmed from several people that the ballots are opened and looked at to see if they "voted the right way" before the others are thrown away.

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Response to scscholar (Reply #33)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:03 PM

34. Link?

If this happened it should be reported right away.

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #34)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:04 PM

36. Last election Seattle Times said they admitted to tossing 7% of the ballots...

 

but we all know the percentage is much higher. Voting by mail is just fraught with potential fraud.

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Response to scscholar (Reply #36)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:07 PM

37. That didn't respond to my question ... but whatever.

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Response to scscholar (Reply #36)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:34 PM

40. So why did it work so well in Oregon?

Oregon is solely vote by mail, and yet we didn't here of any problems with the mail ballots in their recent primary. I wonder why...

In my county in California, I can track my mail ballot on the county registrar's web site. I can see that it was mailed to me on May 9, they received it back on the 19th, and it was accepted as valid. More information than if I had voted in person.

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Response to Retrograde (Reply #40)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 03:42 PM

49. I think one of the differences is that California isn't solely vote by mail

That means that on election day (and leading up to it) you have to devote considerable resources and man/woman hours to preparing for, managing, and counting in-person votes.

Also, and I don't know how it works in Oregon, and I'm not defending the legal requirements imposed in California, but according the California Secretary of State's election FAQs, http://vote.sos.ca.gov/frequently-asked-questions/#faq-reporting

"Each of the 58 county elections offices processes ballots differently, and the distances poll workers must travel from polling places to county offices vary greatly. State law requires county elections officials to send their first batch of results to the Secretary of State's office no more than two hours after they begin tallying the votes after polls close on election day. County elections officials continue to report results periodically on election night until all precinct vote totals have been reported. County elections officials will continue to count ballots for up to 30 days (28 days for presidential delegates and 30 days for all other contests) after election day."

"Vote-by-mail ballots that are received by county elections offices before election day are typically counted on election day. Many more vote-by-mail ballots are dropped off at polling places or arrive at county elections offices on election day. A vote-by-mail ballot is to be counted if received in the elections office no later than 3 days after the election, and it is postmarked on or before election day. Depending on the volume of these types of ballots, it takes up to 30 days (28 days for presidential delegates and 30 days for all other contests) for county elections officials to verify voter records and determine if ballots have been cast by eligible voters. The frequency of updated results will vary based on the size of each county and the process each local elections office uses to tally and report votes."

"The first election results are typically ballots received before election day. Voters may cast ballots up to 29 days before election day. County elections officials may begin opening vote-by-mail ballot envelopes up to ten business days before election day, but those results cannot be accessed or shared with the public until all polls close on election day."

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 10:59 AM

18. What makes you think they're

 

for Bernie? Wishful thinking? Magical fairy whisper in your ear? What's your proof?

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Response to leftynyc (Reply #18)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 11:13 AM

20. You guys seem to think HRC owned the absintee vote.

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Response to Skink (Reply #20)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 11:15 AM

21. I don't see Hillary supporters

 

claiming ALL the votes will go to her the way Bernie supporters are making that idiotic assumption. Take it up with them.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:22 AM

2. Get real, hippie. Unicorns, rainbows and fair elections just ain't gonna happen!

 

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:24 AM

4. What someone else pointed out previously...

 

...is that of all those uncounted ballots, some were for the GOP candidates, some were for the Democratic candidates.

Some of them were for no candidate at all, just local issues.

Some were for write-in candidates.

By the time you get down to that subset of ballots that address Sanders and Clinton, some of them will be for Sanders and some will be for Clinton.

The CA results will not change in any meaningful way. It's simple statistical extrapolation, something that even a math novice like me can understand.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Don't ever underestimate the long-term effects of a good night's sleep.[/center][/font][hr]

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:28 AM

7. The article says that most of the provisional and mail-in ballots

were from either young voters or from Hispanic voters. Bernie may do well with young voters, but he did not do well with Hispanic voters so the statement on Reddit that they all voted for Bernie is dubious.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #7)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:52 AM

13. No kidding..."the statement on Reddit that they ALL voted for Bernie is dubious."

 

Understatement wins the thread!

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #7)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:47 PM

32. there is nothing on the provisional ballot which identifies the race or age of the voter

so how could anyone make that statement?

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Response to Fresh_Start (Reply #32)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 02:06 PM

45. Pardon me,

I read a different article in LBN ( http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141483654 ) early this morning that stated the following (it would have concerned the mail-in ballots):

With California's evolution to a state where most voters cast their ballots by mail, political watchers have concluded that election day has turned into election week .

The independent Target Book, a publication that handicaps congressional and legislative races, called it "probable" that as many as 3 million ballots could remain uncounted by time Tuesday night ended. And traditionally, said the analysts, those ballots tend to have come from Democrats, young and Latino voters.

Read more: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-primary-wednesday-s-big-question-how-many-1465375928-htmlstory.html

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #45)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 03:40 PM

48. the voters registration card has that information

but the ballot does not

The ballot has no voter information:
the envelop containing the provisional ballot has the consumer name: but not their race or age

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Response to Fresh_Start (Reply #48)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 04:18 PM

50. I don't know the specifics for California,

but wouldn't they have some record as to who they sent mail-in ballots to so they could make a comparison of race and party affiliation--if not for the current election, then for previous elections which is why they can make the generalized statement that mail-in ballots are sent to as indicated in the excerpt? That would seem to be a necessity in order to prevent people from voting more than once.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #50)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 05:02 PM

55. Some of that information is public record

Each precinct post lists of who is registered to vote in that precinct, their address, party affiliation, and whether they got a mail ballot - I went to look at mine even though I sent my ballot back in mid-May (it didn't show whether it was returned, but the registrar's website did). In addition, public voter information is available at the county registrar's office, at least to political party workiers (that's how they get their contact lists) and reporters (when you see accounts of Soandso not voting often, that's where the data comes from).

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #50)

Sat Jun 11, 2016, 01:22 PM

56. the match off the mail in and provisional ballots to the voters registration

I'm a by mail voter NPP

I was mailed a NPP ballot
I asked for a democratic ballot

My county site has both of the ballots they mailed to me with the mailing date
They have not yet counted my returned ballot.
I imagine they will assure that only one of my ballots is counted.

But all of that is due by comparing the ballot response to the voting record for my registration.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:32 AM

8. Do Bernie voters not know how to/or bother to register to vote?

Or do rules not apply to them ? He lost. Get over it. You will wake up tomorrow and find that he still lost.

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Response to livetohike (Reply #8)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 10:50 AM

16. You believe that one million people who had their votes thrown out are idiots?

 


You are blaming the voters, one million people....

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #16)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 11:01 AM

19. If they didn't know the rules

 

BEFORE election day, then yes, I'm perfectly okay in saying they were idiots. It's not like the election snuck up on them.

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #16)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:42 PM

27. There is no evidence in your post that a million people had their votes thrown out.

A million people did not vote for a presidential primary on their ballot, possibly because they were NPP voters who had no primary on their ballot at all! You can't use that as evidence that a million ballots were thrown out.

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #16)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 02:00 PM

44. One million people didn't have their votes thrown out. See post #35.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:35 AM

9. If someone at Reddit supposes it, it must be true!

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 09:35 AM

10. It was done to Protect the Democratic party from outside influence , other Americans,

Can you say Big Tent?

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)


Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 10:10 AM

14. This seems to be a recurring issue. Not this specific thing, but voting irregularities in general.

It's surprising how many DUers are willing to dismiss this as the voter's fault for not carefully following instructions given the outrage when something similar happens in a general election and it costs a Dem votes.

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Response to hughee99 (Reply #14)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 10:55 AM

17. they would rather blame one million voters

 


than face the fact that someone is messing with our elections.

I read so many accounts on reddit, of people who had to file provisional ballots because they were told that they had already voted by mail.

Many people reported large percentages of voters at their local polls being forced to vote provisional.

But the Hillary police would have us believe they are all idiots.

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #17)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:14 PM

23. At least right now they would rather blame the voters.

You bet your ass that in the general election, if the same thing happens to the same voters, those people will instead be talking about disenfranchisement.

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Response to hughee99 (Reply #23)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 04:45 PM

53. Karma is ....

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Response to J_J_ (Reply #17)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:10 PM

38. See post # 35

Your assumption fails to account for the hundreds of thousands of ballots that were processed that were not presidential primary ballots.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 10:47 AM

15. Still can't admit defeat, eh?

The outstanding ballots are mostly from mail-ins or urban areas, which skew towards Hillary, that's why they were able to call the race days ago.

It's time to build a bridge and get over it.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 11:16 AM

22. More crack journalism from Reddit.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:27 PM

24. reddit: investigative journalism at its finest!

 

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:37 PM

25. "...1 million votes (probably for Bernie) have already been thrown into the trashcan!" BULLSHIT

 

So much bullshit, so little time.

I don't care who the ballot was cast for (and we have NO IDEA if they were ALL for Bernie)...if those ballots are invalid, they should be shit canned.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:39 PM

26. This is nonsense.

"No Party Preference" ballots which are sent to voters without a stated party preference, do not have a presidential primary race on them. NPP voters are about 25% of voters and they had to specifically request a Democratic ballot if they wanted to vote in the Democratic primary. So a million ballots that didn't vote for a Republican or Democrat in the presidential primary does not mean there were a million ballots discarded. It simply means that a million people didn't vote in the presidential primary because it wasn't on their ballot at all. And 1 million out of 6 million is roughly in line with the 25% of voters who have "no party preference."

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Response to ContinentalOp (Reply #26)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:11 PM

39. Yep: See post #35.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:42 PM

28. Chance that all the discarded votes were pro-bernie is NIL

Yes, its possible that Bernie voters were more likely to fail to complete their ballot correctly...for example vote by mail responses do not count if the vote by mail response envelope is not signed by the voter. But that is due to their lack of experience with voting rather than new rules created to cause problems for Bernie voters.


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Response to Fresh_Start (Reply #28)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:47 PM

31. The OP doesn't even have any evidence of "discarded votes."

The 1 million ballots that didn't vote for a R or D primary candidate could simply be NPP ballots which had no presidential primary printed on them at all.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:44 PM

29. If you voted on a provisional ballot, you can check its status. See link to the list for you.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 12:46 PM

30. By the way, you're assuming that provisional ballots are being discarded.

But the vast majority of ballots remaining to be counted are vote by mail. As of 5 pm last night there were 705,489 provisional ballots uncounted and 1,801,816 mail in ballots.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

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Response to ContinentalOp (Reply #30)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:58 PM

42. Provisional ballots in Santa Clara county

can be tracked here Note that this information is only available to voters who kept the receipt for the provisional ballot they were given at the polls.

It would be interesting after the results are certified to see a summary of the reasons why discarded ballots were declared invalid.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:03 PM

35. You're wrong. And I can show you why.

Last edited Fri Jun 10, 2016, 03:03 PM - Edit history (3)

Your assumption that there are a million or so votes that have been invalidated is based on the following:

Padilla says 6 million votes have been processed. The exact number is 6,044,814 (see bottom of page, ballots cast column at http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/status/

The reported returns in the presidential primaries (including the four third party primaries) show 1,610,657 (aggregate R) +1,528,853 (Bernie) + 1,977,908 (Clinton) + 32,000 (approx.) (other Dem. candidates) + 65,764 "Third Party" =5,215,182
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

6,044,814 minus 5,215,182 =829,632

So where did these 829,632 ballots that were cast go? No where. They just weren't cast for anyone in any of the presidential primaries.

As support, I direct your attention to the California Target Book Report
http://www.californiatargetbook.com/ctb/default/assets/File/CA_Target_Book_-_06-06_-_Media_Advisory_-_Primary_Voter_Turnout.pdf

That report, which folks have been citing in support of the claim that there are up to three million uncounted votes (turns out to be closer to 2.6 million but not a bad guesstimate), states that as of Monday night 2.7 million mail-in ballots had been received and that 49 percent were Democratic primary ballots and 34 percent were Republican primary ballots. That leaves 17 percent, or nearly 460,000 ballots received by Monday night that were not Democratic or Republican presidential primary ballots. Now, some number of them were for the third party primaries, but since those primaries, after the addition of in-person ballots, only totaled around 66,000 its probably a safe estimate that no more than 50 percent of that total was received by Monday. Subtract those from the 460,000 ballots not cast in the Democratic or Republican primaries, and your left with 427,000 votes that apparently were cast before Monday but not in any of the presidential primaries. Since we know that the number of votes processed was around 6 million and that 2.7 million of them were mail in ballots received by Monday night, that means the number of in-person ballots cast on Tuesday was over 3 million. And just as 400,000 plus of the early mail in votes were not presidential primary ballots, its is likely that 400,000 plus of the 3 million in-person ballots also were not presidential primary ballots.

So, when you add the 427,500 non presidential primary ballots received by Monday with the likely estimate of another 400,000 plus non-presidential primary in-person ballots processed on election night, you end up pretty much at the number of supposedly "invalidated ballots." Only they weren't invalidated, they just weren't cast in the presidential primaries and thus didn't show up in your estimate of the votes cast.

ON EDIT: The numbers on the California website continue to be updated. Since the time I wrote my original post, the number of processed ballots has increased to 6,128,180. Clinton's lead over Sanders has increased from 449,055 to 456,699.



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Response to onenote (Reply #35)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:51 PM

41. Plus, there were 4 other presidential primaries that day

The American Independent Party candidates had about 30,000 votes, the others not as many. Plus, there were additional candidates on both the Republican and Democratic ballots - Kasich and Cruz together account for more than 300,000 votes. And of course the NPP ballots.

500,000 to 1,000,000 sound like huge numbers, but this is very big state in terms of population - about 40 million total as of last best estimate. Since we're now at the point of examining ballots individually (isn't that what DUers advocate - hand examination of paper ballots?) it's going to take its time.

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Response to Retrograde (Reply #41)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 01:58 PM

43. Yep. They're specifically taken into account in my explanation

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 02:12 PM

46. Somebody saying so on reddit is not an actual source.

And votes are not being thrown in the trashcan. This thread is, though. Trashed.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 02:27 PM

47. Are you saying that the people counting the votes and verifying the ballots

Were hired by Clinton and the DNC? Damnnnnnn! Clinton is even smarter and evil that I could of hoped for. Go Clinton!

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 10, 2016, 04:28 PM

52. Link?? This is straight from Reddit please

There's other reports out that counter your Reddit post.

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