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Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:50 PM

 

LA Times Poll: Bernie 44, Hillary 43 (Yeah, it's the same poll linked in the other thread)

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-latimes-presidential-primary-poll-20160602-snap-story.html

The Vermont senator has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton. That represented a nine-point swing from a USC/Los Angeles Times poll in March, in which Clinton led handily.


Here's the *actual* poll results. Unlike the other thread that singles out what they call "reliable voters", this one includes everybody.

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Reply LA Times Poll: Bernie 44, Hillary 43 (Yeah, it's the same poll linked in the other thread) (Original post)
HerbChestnut Jun 2016 OP
itsrobert Jun 2016 #1
HerbChestnut Jun 2016 #3
itsrobert Jun 2016 #7
HerbChestnut Jun 2016 #8
mythology Jun 2016 #10
HerbChestnut Jun 2016 #12
beachbumbob Jun 2016 #2
tonyt53 Jun 2016 #4
HerbChestnut Jun 2016 #5
Ferd Berfel Jun 2016 #6
LonePirate Jun 2016 #9
msongs Jun 2016 #11
HerbChestnut Jun 2016 #13
azurnoir Jun 2016 #14
auntpurl Jun 2016 #15
azurnoir Jun 2016 #16
Recursion Jun 2016 #17
Betty Karlson Jun 2016 #18
Name removed Jun 2016 #20
Betty Karlson Jun 2016 #21
Name removed Jun 2016 #19

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:51 PM

1. Nice

Nice spin.

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Response to itsrobert (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:52 PM

3. It's not spin. It's the actual results.

 

Did you even read the article? Sheesh...

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #3)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:54 PM

7. Are you new to politics? Nt

Nt

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Response to itsrobert (Reply #7)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:54 PM

8. Are you new to statistics?

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #8)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:02 PM

10. Including unreliable voters isn't good statistical modeling

 

That whole unreliable thing makes it hard to use predicatively.

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Response to mythology (Reply #10)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:04 PM

12. Check out my other OP related to this poll. The results might surprise you.

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:51 PM

2. Eligible voters the least accurate...lol

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:52 PM

4. Try again

 

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Response to tonyt53 (Reply #4)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:53 PM

5. Did you read the article? nt

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:53 PM

6. What spin?


The Vermont senator has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton. That represented a nine-point swing from a USC/Los Angeles Times poll in March, in which Clinton led handily.


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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:58 PM

9. I think someone has little to no understanding of political polling if they tout RVs over LVs.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:04 PM

11. in a poll of bernie sanders' wife, Jane, bernie won 100% of everything nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #11)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:05 PM

13. Sticking your fingers in your ears, eh?

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:10 PM

14. Here's a link to the actual poll results also of ineterest questions 21 and 22

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:13 PM

15. This is another example

of normal things that everyone has understood for years about elections suddenly being both CORRUPT and ATTACKING BERNIE. Along with deadlines for registrations, calling the presumptive nominee before the convention based on SD and PD counts, and sample ballots. And loads of other examples.

Eligible voters is a MUCH less reliable metric than likely voters. This is how it is done!

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Fri Jun 3, 2016, 01:26 AM

16. kick

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:08 AM

17. Turnout models have been drastically wrong in both directions this season

And that's ultimately what this question comes down to.

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:55 AM

18. Good News. Given Sanders' usual performance, we may expect him to carry the state 60 - 40 at least.

 

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Response to Betty Karlson (Reply #18)


Response to Name removed (Reply #20)

Fri Jun 3, 2016, 07:35 AM

21. All polls in open primary states have underestimated Sanders by 10 % at least

 

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Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

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