Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:50 PM

LA Times Poll: Bernie 44, Hillary 43 (Yeah, it's the same poll linked in the other thread)

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-latimes-presidential-primary-poll-20160602-snap-story.html

The Vermont senator has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton. That represented a nine-point swing from a USC/Los Angeles Times poll in March, in which Clinton led handily.

Here's the *actual* poll results. Unlike the other thread that singles out what they call "reliable voters", this one includes everybody.

21 replies, 2332 views

Thread info Bookmark this thread Trash this thread

Reply to this thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum

Replies to this discussion thread

21 replies	Author	Time	Post
LA Times Poll: Bernie 44, Hillary 43 (Yeah, it's the same poll linked in the other thread) (Original post)	HerbChestnut	Jun 2016	OP
Nice	itsrobert	Jun 2016	#1
It's not spin. It's the actual results.	HerbChestnut	Jun 2016	#3
Are you new to politics? Nt	itsrobert	Jun 2016	#7
Are you new to statistics?	HerbChestnut	Jun 2016	#8
Including unreliable voters isn't good statistical modeling	mythology	Jun 2016	#10
Check out my other OP related to this poll. The results might surprise you.	HerbChestnut	Jun 2016	#12
Eligible voters the least accurate...lol	beachbumbob	Jun 2016	#2
Try again	tonyt53	Jun 2016	#4
Did you read the article? nt	HerbChestnut	Jun 2016	#5
What spin?	Ferd Berfel	Jun 2016	#6
I think someone has little to no understanding of political polling if they tout RVs over LVs.	LonePirate	Jun 2016	#9
in a poll of bernie sanders' wife, Jane, bernie won 100% of everything nt	msongs	Jun 2016	#11
Sticking your fingers in your ears, eh?	HerbChestnut	Jun 2016	#13
Here's a link to the actual poll results also of ineterest questions 21 and 22	azurnoir	Jun 2016	#14
This is another example	auntpurl	Jun 2016	#15
kick	azurnoir	Jun 2016	#16
Turnout models have been drastically wrong in both directions this season	Recursion	Jun 2016	#17
Good News. Given Sanders' usual performance, we may expect him to carry the state 60 - 40 at least.	Betty Karlson	Jun 2016	#18
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Jun 2016	#20
All polls in open primary states have underestimated Sanders by 10 % at least	Betty Karlson	Jun 2016	#21
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Jun 2016	#19

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:51 PM

itsrobert (14,157 posts)

1. Nice

Nice spin.

Reply to this post

Response to itsrobert (Reply #1)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:52 PM

HerbChestnut (3,649 posts)

3. It's not spin. It's the actual results.

Did you even read the article? Sheesh...

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #3)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:54 PM

itsrobert (14,157 posts)

7. Are you new to politics? Nt

Reply to this post

Response to itsrobert (Reply #7)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:54 PM

HerbChestnut (3,649 posts)

8. Are you new to statistics?

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Reply #8)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:02 PM

mythology (9,527 posts)

10. Including unreliable voters isn't good statistical modeling

That whole unreliable thing makes it hard to use predicatively.

Reply to this post

Response to mythology (Reply #10)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:04 PM

HerbChestnut (3,649 posts)

12. Check out my other OP related to this poll. The results might surprise you.

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:51 PM

beachbumbob (9,263 posts)

2. Eligible voters the least accurate...lol

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:52 PM

tonyt53 (5,737 posts)

4. Try again

Reply to this post

Response to tonyt53 (Reply #4)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:53 PM

HerbChestnut (3,649 posts)

5. Did you read the article? nt

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:53 PM

Ferd Berfel (3,687 posts)

6. What spin?

The Vermont senator has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton. That represented a nine-point swing from a USC/Los Angeles Times poll in March, in which Clinton led handily.

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 05:58 PM

LonePirate (12,356 posts)

9. I think someone has little to no understanding of political polling if they tout RVs over LVs.

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:04 PM

msongs (63,778 posts)

11. in a poll of bernie sanders' wife, Jane, bernie won 100% of everything nt

Reply to this post

Response to msongs (Reply #11)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:05 PM

HerbChestnut (3,649 posts)

13. Sticking your fingers in your ears, eh?

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:10 PM

azurnoir (45,850 posts)

14. Here's a link to the actual poll results also of ineterest questions 21 and 22

https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/xcuxiz76cj9ff0a5v4a1ruwo9gl0u566

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Thu Jun 2, 2016, 06:13 PM

auntpurl (4,311 posts)

15. This is another example

of normal things that everyone has understood for years about elections suddenly being both CORRUPT and ATTACKING BERNIE. Along with deadlines for registrations, calling the presumptive nominee before the convention based on SD and PD counts, and sample ballots. And loads of other examples.

Eligible voters is a MUCH less reliable metric than likely voters. This is how it is done!

Reply to this post

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

Fri Jun 3, 2016, 01:26 AM

azurnoir (45,850 posts)