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Pew Poll: Obama 50 (+3), Romney 47 (Original Post) MadBadger Nov 2012 OP
In 2000, 2004, and 2008... Pew's final poll was VERY close to the end result scheming daemons Nov 2012 #1
They Were The Most Accurate Poll In 2008! DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #2
Big Swing kansasobama Nov 2012 #3
or was he Lightsource777 Nov 2012 #10
BOOM BOOM BOOM Tutonic Nov 2012 #4
im liking the trend today mgcgulfcoast Nov 2012 #5
PPP shows the same damnedifIknow Nov 2012 #6
Well, Well, Well..How the mighty has fallen!! michello Nov 2012 #7
Feel good people, GOTV! Lightsource777 Nov 2012 #8
Unlikely voters USUALLY vote too Cicada Nov 2012 #9
It looks like undecideds are breaking evenly according to this poll. hrmjustin Nov 2012 #11
+7 on RV krawhitham Nov 2012 #12
Romney collapse in registered voters Lightsource777 Nov 2012 #13
Other good tidbits from this poll blazeKing Nov 2012 #14
Very large sample size too which is much better than others smorkingapple Nov 2012 #15
This is the most important national poll of the year! Boom! VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #16
Just another good sign... remember how freaked we were 3 weeks ago about this one? budkin Nov 2012 #17
 

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)
1. In 2000, 2004, and 2008... Pew's final poll was VERY close to the end result
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:12 PM
Nov 2012

This is a VERY positive sign.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,705 posts)
2. They Were The Most Accurate Poll In 2008!
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:16 PM
Nov 2012

They had a 51-43 poll that favored Obama . Then they had a 49-45 poll that favored Romney. Then they had a 47-47 poll that showed a tied race. *

Their last poll,immediately prior to this one, had all kinds of goodies in it for Romney but all I saw was a trend that favored Obama. Well, the trend continued.



*Did numbers from memory.


Cicada

(4,533 posts)
9. Unlikely voters USUALLY vote too
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:24 PM
Nov 2012

Pew may be the best poll. They spend a ton, $60,000 to $100,000 per poll. Kohut ran Gallup before he moved to Pew. Interestingly they once took actual registered voters from official registration lists, polled them, then checked to see if they actually had voted. They found that MOST of those polled who said they were NOT going to vote did in fact vote. And of course some who said they were going to vote did not vote. So polls where results limited to likely voters are screwed up. The best prediction would be to weight likely voters AND unlikely voters. The internal polls of campaigns do this but public polls limited only to likely voters do ot. So PEW finds O leading by a bigger margin with registered voters than with likely voters. The best guess should be between the two.

Lightsource777

(78 posts)
13. Romney collapse in registered voters
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:30 PM
Nov 2012

Check out that link and then look at the registered voter numbers for Romney in the last days of polling.

49 Obama to 42 Romney

The 42 number matches Romney's lowest support since the time after the Democratic convention.

All the gains he made after his 1st debate "performance art" have vanished. If the poll is to be believed.

 

blazeKing

(329 posts)
14. Other good tidbits from this poll
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:32 PM
Nov 2012

"Nearly four-in-ten (39%) likely voters support Obama strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. A third (33%) of likely voters support Romney strongly, compared with 11% who back him moderately. In past elections, dating to 1960, the candidate with the higher percentage of strong support has usually gone on to win the popular vote."

So much for that enthusiasm gap eh?


"Obama’s handling of the storm’s aftermath may have contributed to his improved showing. Fully 69% of all likely voters approve of the way Obama is handling the storm’s impact. Even a plurality of Romney supporters (46%) approve of Obama’s handling of the situation; more important, so too do 63% of swing voters."

smorkingapple

(827 posts)
15. Very large sample size too which is much better than others
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:34 PM
Nov 2012

Some of these national polls of 500 voters can easily show one thing but over 3800 sample size is hard to be off from the national electorate.

budkin

(6,691 posts)
17. Just another good sign... remember how freaked we were 3 weeks ago about this one?
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:40 PM
Nov 2012

Romney was up big... so much for that! Work hard and we got this!

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