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Sun May 29, 2016, 11:10 PM

Math - Hillary will have a heck of a time winning the required PD#

And so, July is what everyone should be looking towards. What is the best scenario to beat Trump? Polls now are too early, but there is a whole other month and worlds of possibilities.

No one should get too comfortable.

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Reply Math - Hillary will have a heck of a time winning the required PD# (Original post)
floppyboo May 2016 OP
bravenak May 2016 #1
Demsrule86 May 2016 #2
eastwestdem May 2016 #3
Demsrule86 May 2016 #8
RobertEarl May 2016 #4
Renew Deal May 2016 #6
onenote May 2016 #17
BlueStateLib May 2016 #23
RobertEarl May 2016 #31
mythology May 2016 #40
bravenak May 2016 #24
Renew Deal May 2016 #5
gollygee May 2016 #7
floppyboo May 2016 #9
onenote May 2016 #10
floppyboo May 2016 #12
geek tragedy May 2016 #19
onenote May 2016 #21
RobertEarl May 2016 #35
onenote May 2016 #41
Demsrule86 May 2016 #28
XRubicon May 2016 #11
floppyboo May 2016 #14
procon May 2016 #13
floppyboo May 2016 #15
Demsrule86 May 2016 #30
procon May 2016 #36
geek tragedy May 2016 #16
floppyboo May 2016 #20
geek tragedy May 2016 #26
Demsrule86 May 2016 #32
floppyboo May 2016 #34
procon May 2016 #37
floppyboo May 2016 #38
Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #18
Sunlei May 2016 #22
floppyboo May 2016 #27
brooklynite May 2016 #25
floppyboo May 2016 #29
Demsrule86 May 2016 #33
barrow-wight May 2016 #39

Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:15 PM

1. Be way way way way way way harder for Bernie, eh? Since he is sooooooo far behind?

 

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:15 PM

2. I pity you guys I really do

There is no specific number she needs to win...just a majority and supers counts...oh noes....she needs 73 now ...probably around 30 by the time Jersey and California vote...she will be the presumptive nominee before California comes in ...after Jersey. Bernie gets out sometime between then and DC...read about Obama in 2008 ...then you might understand.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #2)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:20 PM

3. Ah, let them continue to work on their addition skills. It keeps them busy and out of trouble.

 

God forbid they should be out spreading more of those Sanders promises-with-no-workable-plans.

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Response to eastwestdem (Reply #3)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:32 PM

8. You do have a point

Things are nuts here.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:24 PM

4. She may have a simple majority

 

But the rules state one must have a super majority of PD's to win the nomination.

The end of the voting comes at the convention and not a day before. Looks like Bernie may not win until the convention votes end the primary.

We can wait. Not a problem.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #4)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:29 PM

6. Why is Bernies wife telling people that Bernie will be back in the senate on June 8?

And why is Bernie telling Hillary how to pick a VP if he expects to be the nominee?

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #4)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:42 PM

17. There is no such "super majority" rule.

Last edited Mon May 30, 2016, 09:24 AM - Edit history (1)

The only rule is that to get the nomination a candidate must have the support of 2383 delegates out of the combined total of 4765 pledged and superdelegates.

Thus, as a theoretical matter, a candidate could get the nomination with as few as 41 percent of the pledged delegates if every super delegate supported that candidate.

In reality, of course, it doesn't work that way. In reality, if a candidate wins a simple majority of the pledged debates (2026) it is a virtual certainty that candidate will also have the support of at least 357 super delegates (less than half the total number of super delegates). And that candidate will have neither a super majority of pledged nor a super majority of the supers, but they will be the nominee.

Don't know where you came up with notion that there is a "rule" requiring a supermajority of anything.

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Response to BlueStateLib (Reply #23)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:53 PM

31. Obama did not win until the convention

 

The SDs don't count until then. And not a day before.

They can change their minds at the last minute and that minute is just before the convention takes the vote.

So we have 50 some odd days to help them change their minds.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #31)

Mon May 30, 2016, 12:34 AM

40. And yet he was widely acknowledged as the nominee after the last primaries in 2008

 

There is no valid scenario in which the super delegates will switch as a group to the candidate who is badly behind in the pledged delegate count. Your argument is pointless semantics.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #4)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:47 PM

24. I think you just made that up. There is no fillibuster at the convention!! WTF?

 

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:28 PM

5. Hillary won super delegates this week something like 12-1

Better luck next week.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:30 PM

7. There is no way she won't get the nomination if she gets most of the pledged delegates

The superdelegates will follow. The only way they wouldn't follow is if she got fewer - their purpose is to stack the deck for more establishment candidates, and she's the establishment candidate. They could help her, but they won't hurt her.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:33 PM

9. The OP addresses PD only. Should I hide all you SD hypers for meta disruption?

Is that a thing? Hide for meta hijack?

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:34 PM

10. What is the "required number PD#"?

The answer of course is that there is no required number of PDs. The only "required" number is 2383 delegates out of the combined total of 4765 pledged and superdelegates.

In theory, a candidate could get as few as 1669 (41 percent) of the pledged delegates and still win the nomination if every one of the superdelegates voted for that candidate. Indeed, this is essentially what Sanders is hoping for -- that even if he doesn't get a majority of the pledged delegates, enough superdelegates support him to get to 2383. That's a pretty sizable hurdle given the number of supers that have already committed to Clinton and the historical truth that supers don't generally change horses after they've committed.

As has been pointed out here more times than anyone could possibly count, the historical practice is that if a candidate gets to a majority of the pledged delegates and they have commitments from enough superdelegates to put them over the 1/2 of the combined total threshold, they're the winner. The vote at the convention is simply a formality to ratify what everyone knows will happen.

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Response to onenote (Reply #10)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:37 PM

12. Thanks. So, in other words. we all wait for the convention?

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #12)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:43 PM

19. No, the winner will be KNOWN on June 7.

 

There will be a presumptive, unofficial nominee on June 7, with that winner rubber stamped to make it official at the convention.

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #12)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:45 PM

21. In other words, once a candidate has a majority of the pledged delegates

We wait for the convention to go through the formality of ratifying what everyone knows is going to be the result.
The convention is a coronation, not a contest. At least not in a situation where there are only two candidates and thus one is certain to enter the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates.

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Response to onenote (Reply #21)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:57 PM

35. Nice spin

 

But you are just spinning. I think most here recognize your spin.

Doesn't matter; your spin.

Bernie won't win until the convention actually, ya know, actually votes. Then, and only then, will the primary be done.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #35)

Mon May 30, 2016, 12:53 AM

41. Spin is saying Bernie will win. And poor attempt at deflection.

Not spinning is explaining that whichever candidate has the majority of the pledged delegates will end up being the nominee because there is no way they don't pick up the number of super delegates needed.

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #12)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:51 PM

28. No

June 7th before California comes in...majority of pledged delegates from Jersey...she will have that...then the supers move...Bernie gets out by June 7th or the latest June 14 after DC vote.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:34 PM

11. I'll vote for Bernie or Hillary.

That's the best bet for the next 20 years of the supreme court.

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Response to XRubicon (Reply #11)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:38 PM

14. ^please!^

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:38 PM

13. Oh noes... not more Bernie math.

Who ever is feeding you lot this misinformation is lying. If it's coming from Sanders maybe it's for your money, or your votes, or a headcount, but whatever the reason, you're being exploited for someone else's gain with this crazy arithmetic scam.

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Response to procon (Reply #13)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:40 PM

15. I got it from Steve Kornaki (sp?) pretty clear no winning # for Hillary

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #15)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:53 PM

30. Steve was talking about

pledged delegates...she doesn't need to have a certain number of pledged delegates...just a majority and then the supers comitt...as they did for Obama ...and it is over.

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #15)

Mon May 30, 2016, 12:11 AM

36. Yeah,I saw it, he was explaining how Bernie math works.

You people thought that meant he was endorsing Sanders crazy count-only-the-pledged-delegates because that way you get to pretend Sanders wins because he doesn't want to count the SDs. Its the nuttiest thing I've ever heard of.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:41 PM

16. #berniemath strikes again.

 

When a candidate has a majority of pledged delegates, super delegates, and total delegates, in technical terms that means she fucking won and is the presumptive nominee.

No one will claim otherwise. Sanders will be a bigger joke than Trump if he denies that Clinton has won at that point.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #16)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:44 PM

20. I completely agree with you! But we have to wait for the SD vote

as in 'unpledged' and votes not valid till the convention. Read my OP again, and put something nice in a pipe. Everyone has got to chill a bit!

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #20)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:48 PM

26. No delegates vote until the convention.

 

Doesn't change the fact that we will have our winner on June 7, and the only question after that is how the ceremony in July will go.

On June 7 Hilllary will be the winner and Bernie will have lost.

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #20)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:53 PM

32. No you don't

And Bernie won't mark my words. They commit.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #32)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:56 PM

34. Real Kindness and Love makes no room for fear!

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #20)

Mon May 30, 2016, 12:19 AM

37. Its a fantasy to think that hundreds of SD are going to switch their votes at the conventions.

If they are committed now, they will still be committed at the convention.

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Response to procon (Reply #37)

Mon May 30, 2016, 12:24 AM

38. yes indeed! A Fantasy, or an inexplicable turn of events based in fact.

Stop being so mean! No one here wants Trump to win. Just get real and everyone will do the right thing. And cats don't generally smother newborns, and you can really eat a peck of earth before you die

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:42 PM

18. It's over

 

Bye Bernie

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:46 PM

22. Trump will have a worse time making it through his republican primary then any of our D contenders.

Trump will be squashed like the republican cockroach he is.

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Response to Sunlei (Reply #22)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:49 PM

27. That's not being very helpful. While I was shocked and dismayed when Hillary went

running to Bush, the facts are, establishment disaffected Republicans with wallets to sway are a better bet at this point than independents. Pretty sad, but true.

I don't like this at all! But its your vote. Your vision.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:47 PM

25. Math - Bernie will have a heck of a time winning the required SD#

We know that neither candidate will get enough pledged delegates to win the nomination, so Superdelegates come into play. Clinton will have more than enough, and Sanders won't have a convincing argument to get them to change. And his hostility to everyone in the Party leadership won't help matters.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #25)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:52 PM

29. No one disagrees with you! This is getting boring. Just wait till July - that's all!

No one is challenging these rules. So, 'heel thyself'!

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #29)

Sun May 29, 2016, 11:55 PM

33. Absolutely not

We have catered to Bernie long enough...we are not starting the general with way less than six months...Bernie can take his 'sad ' and go home.

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Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Mon May 30, 2016, 12:25 AM

39. June 7th will make this website a lot more comfortable though.

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