Math - Hillary will have a heck of a time winning the required PD#

[floppyboo]

And so, July is what everyone should be looking towards. What is the best scenario to beat Trump? Polls now are too early, but there is a whole other month and worlds of possibilities.

No one should get too comfortable.

[bravenak]

1. Be way way way way way way harder for Bernie, eh? Since he is sooooooo far behind?

[Demsrule86]

2. I pity you guys I really do

There is no specific number she needs to win...just a majority and supers counts...oh noes....she needs 73 now ...probably around 30 by the time Jersey and California vote...she will be the presumptive nominee before California comes in ...after Jersey. Bernie gets out sometime between then and DC...read about Obama in 2008 ...then you might understand.

[eastwestdem]

3. Ah, let them continue to work on their addition skills. It keeps them busy and out of trouble.

God forbid they should be out spreading more of those Sanders promises-with-no-workable-plans.

[Demsrule86]

8. You do have a point

Things are nuts here.

[RobertEarl]

4. She may have a simple majority

But the rules state one must have a super majority of PD's to win the nomination.

The end of the voting comes at the convention and not a day before. Looks like Bernie may not win until the convention votes end the primary.

We can wait. Not a problem.

[Renew Deal]

6. Why is Bernies wife telling people that Bernie will be back in the senate on June 8?

And why is Bernie telling Hillary how to pick a VP if he expects to be the nominee?

[onenote]

17. There is no such "super majority" rule.

Last edited Mon May 30, 2016, 09:24 AM - Edit history (1)

The only rule is that to get the nomination a candidate must have the support of 2383 delegates out of the combined total of 4765 pledged and superdelegates.

Thus, as a theoretical matter, a candidate could get the nomination with as few as 41 percent of the pledged delegates if every super delegate supported that candidate.

In reality, of course, it doesn't work that way. In reality, if a candidate wins a simple majority of the pledged debates (2026) it is a virtual certainty that candidate will also have the support of at least 357 super delegates (less than half the total number of super delegates). And that candidate will have neither a super majority of pledged nor a super majority of the supers, but they will be the nominee.

Don't know where you came up with notion that there is a "rule" requiring a supermajority of anything.

[BlueStateLib]

23. Obama won with 51.4% of the pledged delegates

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[RobertEarl]

31. Obama did not win until the convention

The SDs don't count until then. And not a day before.

They can change their minds at the last minute and that minute is just before the convention takes the vote.

So we have 50 some odd days to help them change their minds.

[mythology]

40. And yet he was widely acknowledged as the nominee after the last primaries in 2008

There is no valid scenario in which the super delegates will switch as a group to the candidate who is badly behind in the pledged delegate count. Your argument is pointless semantics.

[bravenak]

24. I think you just made that up. There is no fillibuster at the convention!! WTF?

[Renew Deal]

5. Hillary won super delegates this week something like 12-1

Better luck next week.

[gollygee]

7. There is no way she won't get the nomination if she gets most of the pledged delegates

The superdelegates will follow. The only way they wouldn't follow is if she got fewer - their purpose is to stack the deck for more establishment candidates, and she's the establishment candidate. They could help her, but they won't hurt her.

[floppyboo]

9. The OP addresses PD only. Should I hide all you SD hypers for meta disruption?

Is that a thing? Hide for meta hijack?

[onenote]

10. What is the "required number PD#"?

The answer of course is that there is no required number of PDs. The only "required" number is 2383 delegates out of the combined total of 4765 pledged and superdelegates.

In theory, a candidate could get as few as 1669 (41 percent) of the pledged delegates and still win the nomination if every one of the superdelegates voted for that candidate. Indeed, this is essentially what Sanders is hoping for -- that even if he doesn't get a majority of the pledged delegates, enough superdelegates support him to get to 2383. That's a pretty sizable hurdle given the number of supers that have already committed to Clinton and the historical truth that supers don't generally change horses after they've committed.

As has been pointed out here more times than anyone could possibly count, the historical practice is that if a candidate gets to a majority of the pledged delegates and they have commitments from enough superdelegates to put them over the 1/2 of the combined total threshold, they're the winner. The vote at the convention is simply a formality to ratify what everyone knows will happen.

[floppyboo]

12. Thanks. So, in other words. we all wait for the convention?

[geek tragedy]

19. No, the winner will be KNOWN on June 7.

There will be a presumptive, unofficial nominee on June 7, with that winner rubber stamped to make it official at the convention.

[onenote]

21. In other words, once a candidate has a majority of the pledged delegates

We wait for the convention to go through the formality of ratifying what everyone knows is going to be the result.
The convention is a coronation, not a contest. At least not in a situation where there are only two candidates and thus one is certain to enter the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates.

[RobertEarl]

35. Nice spin

But you are just spinning. I think most here recognize your spin.

Doesn't matter; your spin.

Bernie won't win until the convention actually, ya know, actually votes. Then, and only then, will the primary be done.

[onenote]

41. Spin is saying Bernie will win. And poor attempt at deflection.

Not spinning is explaining that whichever candidate has the majority of the pledged delegates will end up being the nominee because there is no way they don't pick up the number of super delegates needed.

[Demsrule86]

28. No

June 7th before California comes in...majority of pledged delegates from Jersey...she will have that...then the supers move...Bernie gets out by June 7th or the latest June 14 after DC vote.

[XRubicon]

11. I'll vote for Bernie or Hillary.

That's the best bet for the next 20 years of the supreme court.

[floppyboo]

14. ^please!^

[procon]

13. Oh noes... not more Bernie math.

Who ever is feeding you lot this misinformation is lying. If it's coming from Sanders maybe it's for your money, or your votes, or a headcount, but whatever the reason, you're being exploited for someone else's gain with this crazy arithmetic scam.

[floppyboo]

15. I got it from Steve Kornaki (sp?) pretty clear no winning # for Hillary

[Demsrule86]

30. Steve was talking about

pledged delegates...she doesn't need to have a certain number of pledged delegates...just a majority and then the supers comitt...as they did for Obama ...and it is over.

[procon]

36. Yeah,I saw it, he was explaining how Bernie math works.

You people thought that meant he was endorsing Sanders crazy count-only-the-pledged-delegates because that way you get to pretend Sanders wins because he doesn't want to count the SDs. Its the nuttiest thing I've ever heard of.

[geek tragedy]

16. #berniemath strikes again.

When a candidate has a majority of pledged delegates, super delegates, and total delegates, in technical terms that means she fucking won and is the presumptive nominee.

No one will claim otherwise. Sanders will be a bigger joke than Trump if he denies that Clinton has won at that point.

[floppyboo]

20. I completely agree with you! But we have to wait for the SD vote

as in 'unpledged' and votes not valid till the convention. Read my OP again, and put something nice in a pipe. Everyone has got to chill a bit!

[geek tragedy]

26. No delegates vote until the convention.

Doesn't change the fact that we will have our winner on June 7, and the only question after that is how the ceremony in July will go.

On June 7 Hilllary will be the winner and Bernie will have lost.

[Demsrule86]

32. No you don't

And Bernie won't mark my words. They commit.

[floppyboo]

34. Real Kindness and Love makes no room for fear!

[procon]

37. Its a fantasy to think that hundreds of SD are going to switch their votes at the conventions.

If they are committed now, they will still be committed at the convention.

[floppyboo]

38. yes indeed! A Fantasy, or an inexplicable turn of events based in fact.

Stop being so mean! No one here wants Trump to win. Just get real and everyone will do the right thing. And cats don't generally smother newborns, and you can really eat a peck of earth before you die

[Tavarious Jackson]

18. It's over

Bye Bernie

[Sunlei]

22. Trump will have a worse time making it through his republican primary then any of our D contenders.

Trump will be squashed like the republican cockroach he is.

[floppyboo]

27. That's not being very helpful. While I was shocked and dismayed when Hillary went

running to Bush, the facts are, establishment disaffected Republicans with wallets to sway are a better bet at this point than independents. Pretty sad, but true.

I don't like this at all! But its your vote. Your vision.

[brooklynite]

25. Math - Bernie will have a heck of a time winning the required SD#

We know that neither candidate will get enough pledged delegates to win the nomination, so Superdelegates come into play. Clinton will have more than enough, and Sanders won't have a convincing argument to get them to change. And his hostility to everyone in the Party leadership won't help matters.

[floppyboo]

29. No one disagrees with you! This is getting boring. Just wait till July - that's all!

No one is challenging these rules. So, 'heel thyself'!

[Demsrule86]

33. Absolutely not

We have catered to Bernie long enough...we are not starting the general with way less than six months...Bernie can take his 'sad ' and go home.

[barrow-wight]

39. June 7th will make this website a lot more comfortable though.