Pooling the Ohio Polls, v.2, and what if they steal Ohio

[frazee]

V.1: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251204179

Okay, I've weighted the Ohio polls this time, and added the latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, which shows a +6 advantage for Obama. There are now 11 polls to play with. (I'm using the polls on Real Clear Politics [RCP] that are listed above the chart, which is what they use to calculate their [unweighted] poll averages.)

The RCP unweighted average for the Ohio polls is Obama +2.9. My weighted average is Obama +3.1. With the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll added to the pool, the t-test probability of Ohio victory now stands at 99.9%. Predicted vote percentages are: Obama - 49.4 +/- 1.0; Romney - 46.2 +/- 1.0.

Good news.

But what if the Ohio polls are wrong, or, what if "they" steal Ohio? Then Obama is likely to win the electoral college only if he takes EITHER Colorado, Virginia, or Florida (assuming other states go as expected). Nate Silver's probabilities for Obama winning these states are 68%, 67%, and 45%, respectively. If we accept these probabilities, then the compound probability of Obama winning at least one of these states is 94%.

Another way to look at it is this (and without resorting to mixed methodologies, and assuming "they" don't steal Ohio) is this: Obama needs to win just one of the four states mentioned above. Using Silver's probabilities only, the compound probability of this happening is 99%

Of course, that doesn't mean it's time to be complacent.

Anyway...this is what I do on slow Saturday mornings.

Good grief, it's afternoon already.

[pnwmom]

1. Thanks! It helps when we get discouraged to read this kind of analysis! n/t

[Ninga]

2. I just came in from canvassing and am freezing here in NE Ohio. Please volunteer to

Think about volunteering to help,get out the vote.

If you already have, or are going to in the next 3 days....thank you!

[renate]

4. thank you!

Have a nice cup of cocoa or coffee along with our thanks. You rock!

[frazee]

6. Thank you.

[Maximumnegro]

3. Enough w/ tis 'stealing' nonsense

if Ohio was tied I would understand but the GOP can't steal a 3pt or higher lead. They can TRY but that's a LOT of votes to magically swing. You can bet your ass they simply would not get away with it.

[frazee]

5. I agree that the split in Ohio is becoming too large for them to get away with it.

But if only to alleviate concerns of the unthinkable happening, it looks like Obama is likely to win even without Ohio.

[exboyfil]

7. I don't think just CO

would be enough. You would also have to assume Obama takes NH which is not a certainty. A more likely path would be VA. If it comes down to those provisional ballots, then you can be certain we are looking at Supreme Court II.

Good Lord can't we run an election in this country. We look like a 3rd world republic.

[frazee]

8. Correct. I am assuming...

that Obama takes New Hampshire. Silver has this probability at 80%.