HRC Would need 612 More Pledged Delegates to Clinch Nomination; It Will Be Contested Convention

[amborin]

HRC only has 1771 PLEDGED delegates & needs 612 more 2 outright clinch nomination, not 86 as CNN claims

She will not be able to do so, and this is why it will be a contested convention.

And, this is one of MANY reasons why it is arrogant and unacceptable of her to declare herself the presumptive nominee.

[hrmjustin]

1. She has most and when June 7th comes she will win enough votes to win.

[Matt_in_STL]

5. Cool. Can you point me to where the super delegates have cast their votes?

I want to see which way each of them voted and if they stuck to their original endorsements. I hadn't realized they voted or I would have tried to track this down sooner.

[hrmjustin]

6. The supers have for the most part said who they are voting for.

You have google.

[HumanityExperiment]

7. rules...

point out in the party rules where your point about SDs vote is valid BEFORE the convention, I'll wait

[hrmjustin]

9. Denial is a river in Egypt.

[HumanityExperiment]

10. ...

SDs.. the curse of HRC, it happened in '08 and is happening in '16

just can't quite get away from SDs and the reasoning behind why they even exist... let alone were allowed to 'pledge' BEFORE a single primary vote was cast... what's the excuse HRC and her supporters spin for that?

'Denial' indeed

[hrmjustin]

18. Because they like her.If Sanders had won more delegates and votes they would have to go

with him. The people would not have tolerated the first place winner not winning.

Hillary is in first place so to deny her the nomination will not be tolerated.

[HumanityExperiment]

23. Bwhahahahahahahahaha....

...'Because they like her'... THIS... TAKES... THE PRIZE... for best comedic post concerning SDs pledging before a single primary vote was even cast I've seen this week

The 'people' hadn't even 'spoken' before the SD pledged...

then there's this:

[hrmjustin]

53. Do you think that the second place finishers should be nominated?

[HumanityExperiment]

74. ...

CORRECTED...

Do I think the starting line should be set the same for every candidate BEFORE the starting gun is fired?

OR

Why did HRC require a starting spot so far ahead of Bernie when Bernie was polling in single digits at the start and the narrative HRC and her supporters were claiming he was a 'fringe candidate'?

[hrmjustin]

84. Sanders lost because he did not get more votes than Hillary.

I know you like him but elections have winner nd losers.

Without the supers existing Hillary win. With them in play she wins.

Point is she wins.

[HumanityExperiment]

94. ...

pivot...pivot...pivot...

Then how does this fit into your narrative attempt?...

[hrmjustin]

96. You looking for excuses and soundbites to explain Sanders loss.

Sanders lost because he didn't appeal to a majority of voters.

Sorry it is so hard to deal with reality for you.

[HumanityExperiment]

102. ...

'You looking for excuses', no, I'm looking for an actual response to my point about SDs pledging before a single primary votes by actual voting public even occurred

I get WHY you'd avoid answering that question and point, you're not the first nor the last HRC supporter to run away from that question

'Sorry it is so hard to deal with reality for you'... INDEED

[hrmjustin]

108. Because of their faith in Hillary.

May I remind you in 2008 Hillary had more super delegates early but when Obama went ahead that started to change.

Sanders never went ahead so thdy sill never vote for him.

[HumanityExperiment]

116. 'faith'...

So you admit it's not about policy or issues... got it

HRC supporters love their pivoting... the HRC pivot polka... new dance craze

this still stands:

[hrmjustin]

117. Don't put words into my mouth.

[HumanityExperiment]

122. ...

didn't need to... your reply did that for you

[hrmjustin]

123. No but do go on if you feel the need to.

[Skink]

67. She bought them

She has a receipt

[Bleacher Creature]

37. I envy your patience.

Unfortunately, they only hear what they want to hear. . .

[hrmjustin]

60. Thanks.

[HumanityExperiment]

72. truth...

truth to power often resonates at a frequency not heard by all, sometimes you need assistance.... would you like some assistance with the truth?

[LanternWaste]

149. Bumper sticker philosophies filled with trendy-but-meaningless phrases like 'truth to power'

Bumper sticker philosophies filled with trendy-but-meaningless phrases like 'truth to power' resonant with undisciplined minds.

Would you like some assistance with rational thought?

(six of one, half a dozen of the other-- and each as petulant as the other... insert distinction lacking difference below to maintain pretense of cleverness)

[HumanityExperiment]

153. ...meep...

Life is 'bumpersticker' moments, it's why they resonant, disciplined or otherwise...

Songs...
Poems...
Campaign soundbites...
TV catch phrases...

'Would you like some assistance with rational thought?'
Nope, but when you locate someone ask them to assist you...

Obviously I've struck an intellectual nerve otherwise you'd not have gone out of your way to reply trying to denigrate me in such a manner

[imagine2015]

83. That's incorrect. They are not requred to go with whoever obtained the most pledged delegates.

Super delegates are "free agents" and may vote for whomever they want no matter who they may have indicated a preference for weeks or months before the convention.

And that's a hard convention fact.

If they think Trump will crush Clinton in the general election they could very well vote for someone who can whip Trump's ass in the election. That someone is of course Bernie Sanders.

[hrmjustin]

86. I never said they are required to vote for Hillary.

Hillary has won more delegates and votes. She has won.

To steal the election from her will sink the party.

[yolla331]

101. She is not the official nominee

Don't count your chickens before they hatch, as a very common quote would be.

She cannot reach the required numbers WITHOUT the superdelegates, and after California, she will no longer be in the lead in delegates.

[hrmjustin]

106. Actually she will be because she will win California.

But hey welcome to DU.

[Fla Dem]

148. LOL. Bernie's behind by 374 pledged delegates. He would have to win 68% of the Ca delegates

to pull even. HRC is favored to win in Ca as well as NJ. Sanders doesn't have a chance.

HILLARY CLINTON POISED TO DEFEAT BERNIE SANDERS IN CALIFORNIA'S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, SURVEYUSA POLL SHOWS
http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/

MAY 24, 2016 AT 7:14 AM
Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In New Jersey

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/

[senz]

105. Her likeability and trustworthiness scores match Trump's.

She does fine in stacked contests. Otherwise, she sinks down down down down down down.

[hrmjustin]

109. If that gets you through the day enjoy.

[senz]

118. Those polls represents millions and millions of voters.

Your personal condescension toward Bernie supporters is typical of Hill fans and just another reason why she will fail.

[hrmjustin]

119. I just hate myself.

[senz]

126. Rude, flippant remarks. Pure Hillary.

You have about as much respect for other people as your candidate does.

Another reason why she will lose.

[hrmjustin]

127. I feel so ashamed.

[senz]

131. Sarcasm! How typical.

[hrmjustin]

132. Need a hug.

[senz]

137. Try more honey, less vinegar.

Here's an undeserved hug.

[1StrongBlackMan]

27. Shhh ... It'll just get you muddy.

[davidlynch]

133. *CRICKETS* n/t

[samsingh]

61. but you have to know how to use google and actually read the results

its so much easier to deny, deny, deny.

[Betty Karlson]

41. If Bernie wins big on June 7th, he will have most pledged delegates.

Which would beg the question why the superdelegates are trying to go with the candidate who - demonstrably - has a much weaker chance against Trump.

Actually, that question needs to be asked anyway. Her candidacy is a trainwreck feeling entitled to happen - with lots of third-way wagons pushing her toward the inevitable derailing of the Democratic Party.

[Garrett78]

45. Sanders would need to win 67.5% of the remaining pledged delegates.

475 of the 781 remaining delegates are in CA, and another 126 are in New Jersey. Clinton will be the nominee. And Clinton will be an overwhelming favorite to win in November, meaningless hypothetical match-up polling aside.

[Betty Karlson]

55. "meaningless"? The cognitive dissonance is ever reaching new heights. eom

[Garrett78]

65. Yes, meaningless, historically.

If they could be trusted, Dukakis would have become POTUS.

[Peace Patriot]

142. Guess what? That's how much Sanders actually won Oregon by--67+%!

The late returns were NEVER REPORTED. So, yeah, he can do that in California, too, which has registered something close to a million new voters, most of them Democrats, most of them young. This primary is going down to the wire, and our candidate is Seabiscuit and yours is War Admiral. The one scorned, ridiculed and dismissed by the racing establishment, the other over-rated by that establishment. Funny little Seabiscuit, with the heart of a truly great champion, eyed his opponent and took wing. Helped people, too, millions of demoralized people in the dark days of the Great Depression. The "little guy" can win!

[amborin]

145. wonderful post!

[Garrett78]

154. Guess what, OR is not CA or NJ or DC or Puerto Rico.

And I don't have a horse in this race. I simply care about what's real. What's real is that Clinton will be the nominee.

[hrmjustin]

59. No he won't.

If he wins it will only be by a few percentage points and he is behind in every poll.

It is time for you to accept reality.

[Betty Karlson]

62. Is that the same reality that shows Clinton could lose to Trump and Sanders would

bury him in a landslide? Wake up: the 20th century is over. Nominating a relic from that bygone era is a direct threat to the future of the Democratic Party.

[hrmjustin]

66. No it is math. That logic.

Hillary has won. To nominate the second place finisher is overturning democracy.

[Betty Karlson]

70. To nominate Clinton is to squander the future of the Democratic Party.

The GOP is trying to cling to power with a coalition of wealthy donors and aging conservatives and some regional demographics. It only works for them if the Democratic Party actively drives millennials away. That's why we lost in 2010 and 2014. (2014 was DINO-Debbie's greatest hit so far: "who else are ya gonna vote for?&quot

Why are we trying to copy the GOP, and create our own crumbling base of wealthy donors, aging moderates, and some regional demographics? How long do you think the 20th century is going to last?

[hrmjustin]

73. S,o you believe the second place finisher should be declared the winner?

Not very logical or democratic.

[Betty Karlson]

75. I think he would have been the first place winner if Debbie and her ilk didn't tilt everything

in favour of Clinton. They are hell-bent on nominating the weakest and most (generally, not inside the sheltered environment of the party) detested Democratic candidate ever. Why?

[hrmjustin]

85. I think that is an excuse you are holding unto to explain your candidates loss.

He lost because he didn't appeal to a majority of primary voters.

Blaming DWS is pathetic.

[Betty Karlson]

87. No: DNC bias is pathetic. Calling them out on it is justified. eom

[hrmjustin]

89. Excuses.

[Betty Karlson]

90. No amount of Goldman Sachs donation will excuse the DNC. eom

[hrmjustin]

91. Keep on with the excuses but they are sad.

Here is a hug. .

[bahrbearian]

95. Well' she will always be able to point out she is the "President of the Democratic Party" Nov 9th.

[Betty Karlson]

113. ^pretty much, this. ^

The other side's cognitive dissonance puts ostriches to shame.

[bahrbearian]

125. The Only Real American's are Registered Democrats, everyone else are is just ignorant about ...

how primaries work , why didn't they register in Sept. like they were quietly told. Besides they are not real Democrats.

[riversedge]

111. yeah yeah. you learned from your 'leader' well-everything is RIGGED!

[Betty Karlson]

114. And your leader's DNC cronies and media acolytes are the ones rigging it!

[sufrommich]

2. It's not going to be a contested convention.

If 2008 wasn't when the totals were much closer,2016 isn't going to be.No matter how much Bernie supporters fantasize about it.

[amborin]

13. Obama was not under FBI investigation, and did not have HRC's terrible polling numbers

[KingFlorez]

15. You aren't a superdelegate, so you have no say

The super delegates don't think like you.

[amborin]

31. true, i and millions of voters used to think it was a democracy, not a dicatorship of supers

[KingFlorez]

34. Millions of more voters selected Clinton and the superdelegates will follow their will

This is a democracy, not a dictatorship of Bernie Sanders.

[Renew Deal]

57. The person with the most votes won

You're the one that wants to overturn the will of the voters. Don't you see the hypocrisy of your post?

[Ned_Devine]

26. Exactamundo

[Orsino]

21. That's not what a contested convention is.

If it comes to a vote, it's contested.

Simple--but neither does it mean an increased chance tor Sanders to be the nominee.

[Exilednight]

43. it wasn't contested because Hillary conceded. Sanders would have to

Concede before the convention to prevent a contested convention.

[cali]

3. No, she really doesn't. That's just not how it works.

[mythology]

4. Whatever lie let's you sleep at night

There will be exactly one vote at the convention and Clinton will win. Some Sanders supporters won't like it, but most will accept that the primaries and caucuses had votes and Clinton was the substantial winner.

[Yurovsky]

8. Her corporate sponsors bought & paid for those Superdelegates...

I don't think they'll be allowed to represent actual voter sentiment. They've been given their orders from the home office.

Just more proof that there are no returns or refunds once you've sold your soul.

[Godhumor]

11. Supers are voting for the person with more votes, delegates and states

Pretty sure they are representing actual voter sentiment.

[jamese777]

22. "Actual voter sentiment..."

is reflected in the popular vote totals to date:
Hillary Clinton: 13,192,713 (55.5%)
Bernie Sanders: 10,158,889 (42.7%)
Donald Trump: 11,266,041

Clinton over Sanders: 3,033,824
Clinton over Trump: 1,926,672
Trump over Sanders: 1,057,152

Hillary Clinton: 26 contests won
Bernie Sanders: 21 contests won

[KPN]

25. Yeah, yeah. Vote counts are bogus -- apples and oranges.

[1StrongBlackMan]

30. LOL ...

Yeah, yeah. Vote counts are bogus -- apples and oranges.

You forgot - Facts and Fictions.

[KPN]

33. Votes in GOP primary aren't ewquivalent to voted in Dem primary for a lot of reasons.

I'm sure you understand that. On the Dem side, caucuses are not equivalent to primary votes.

Facts, not fiction.

[1StrongBlackMan]

47. More of this counter-factual nonsense? ...

While the above poster used an improper graphic ...

"Actual voter sentiment..."

is reflected in the popular vote totals to date:

Hillary Clinton: 12,989,134 (56.6%) 22947033
Bernie Sanders: 9,957,889 (43.4%)
Donald Trump: 11,266,041

Clinton over Sanders: 3,031,245

Hillary Clinton: 26 contests won
Bernie Sanders: 21 contests won

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Removing the Caucus "votes" doesn't change the picture of "Actual Voter Sentiment".

Please stop. Whomever one supports doesn't change the facts.

[KPN]

50. No -- you please stop.

Ignoring flaws in your argument doesn't make it right. I'll grant you that were all the States primaries instead of caucuses, Hillary would likely still have the lead. But the whole vote thing is bogus until the actual primaries are over. If she has it then, at that point, I'll concede your point.

[1StrongBlackMan]

80. LOL ... Okay ...

[jamese777]

52. Realclear politics

Is a conservative leaning site. I used a more neutral site, Wikipedia which took its updated data from "The Green Papers."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

[1StrongBlackMan]

78. Okay ...

Let use your (semi) open-source Wikipedia numbers ...

"Actual voter sentiment..."

is reflected in the popular vote totals to date:

Hillary Clinton: 12,864,254 (56.6%)
Bernie Sanders: 9,859,003 (43.4%)

Clinton over Sanders: 3,005,251

Hillary Clinton: 26 contests won
Bernie Sanders: 21 contests won

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

The Actual Voter Sentiment picture, still doesn't change.

Next load of counter-factual nonsense.

[jamese777]

104. The Green Papers

In case anyone's interested:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/

[1StrongBlackMan]

128. I used you numbers ... nothing changed

"Actual voter sentiment..."

is reflected in the popular vote totals to date:

Hillary Clinton: 12,864,254 (56.6%)
Bernie Sanders: 9,859,003 (43.4%)

Clinton over Sanders: 3,005,251

Hillary Clinton: 26 contests won
Bernie Sanders: 21 contests won

HRC STILL has 56.6% of the primary votes cast; STILL has 3+ million more primary votes; STILL has won more contests.

It seems that actual voter sentiment is pretty clear, no?

[jwirr]

71. Primaries have NEVER been determined by popular vote

because there are different kinds of primaries. Not to mention primaries only ever get a small percentage of the actual registered voters to vote.

The GE is determined by popular vote.

[Sheepshank]

82. are you sure about that? nt

[Matt_R]

147. Wait... Wait...

I did not see Trump on the Democratic ballot. Was he on yours?

I am still wondering why people people bring Trump into a Clinton/Sanders Democratic Primary contest.

[Maven]

32. No, her many years invested in Democratic Party politics "bought" her those supers

You can't deride her for being part of the establishment and then bellyache when the establishment prefers one of its own. Not to mention she has millions more votes, as others have pointed out.

Perhaps we should do away with superdelegates altogether. I would certainly be in favor of that as I think the whole concept is undemocratic. But that is not going to happen right at this moment.

[Garrett78]

39. And doing away with superdelegates at this moment wouldn't make any difference anyway.

Instead of 2383 being the magic number, 2026 would be the magic number. A number Clinton will easily top.

[rusty fender]

99. So if the Super Delegates are so corrupt,

then why would Bernie want their support? Isn't it yours and Bernie's contention that his candidacy is all about getting the the corrupt money takers out of politics?

[CrowCityDem]

12. Contested means no one wins on the first ballot. That will not be the case here.

[Garrett78]

36. From what I understand, that's not true.

It will technically be contested if Sanders hasn't conceded prior to the vote, so long as Clinton hasn't reached 2383 via pledged delegates. If no one wins on the first vote, which - as you point out - won't happen, then it's considered "brokered."

So, contested is pretty meaningless. A brokered convention, however, would be significant. But that won't happen. And I'm not convinced the convention will be contested either, as I think Sanders will probably concede prior to the vote.

[Orsino]

156. Nope. You're referring to a brokered convention.

As soon as two or more candidates arrive, necessitating that first vote, you've got a contested convention.

People are making much of the apparent fact that the convention will be contested, but no one need panic.

[KingFlorez]

14. Clinton will be declared the nominee after the first ballot. There will be no contested convention.

With only two candidates, there is no room for a floor fight. Clinton has more than enough delegates (pledged and super) to be nominated by acclimation.

After June 7th, even more superdelegates will switch to Clinton and President Obama will likely step forward to formally endorse her. So it really isn't even going to end up resulting in a fight at the convention.

[Thinkingabout]

16. Who are you trying to fool? Could you look at the math again.

One half of the pledged delegates is 2023, if Hillary has 1771 she only needs eye more pledged delegates. Sanders needs 541 more pledged delegates. If you are saying Hillary needs the required delegate count in pledged delegates then the same requirement is needed for Sanders, guess what there is not enough delegates left, it has been for Sanders for a while.

[jamese777]

17. In California, for example...

more than half of the Superdelegates are members of California's congressional delegation which is composed of 39 Democratic members of the House and the two Democratic Senators, Feinstein and Boxer. Of the 41 members of Congress, 37 of them have endorsed Hillary Clinton while 4 have endorsed no one, including Nancy Pelosi who intends to stay neutral due to being Minority Leader.
No endorsements yet for Bernie Sanders.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-hillary-clinton-california-endorsements-20160512-snap-htmlstory.html

[jwirr]

76. They did not endorse President Obama until the last minute

either. However, I agree that if they do not endorse him then it is them I am going to be blaming for electing Trump. They are not stupid - her inevitability has never been a given. And it is less sure now than ever.

[Garrett78]

20. If Sanders doesn't concede, it will be contested. But it won't be brokered.

Clinton will easily top 2383 on the first vote, so who really cares if it's contested. I still think Sanders will do the right thing and concede, just as Clinton did in '08.

[KPN]

24. Yup.

The only reason it will be messy is the DNC and Hillary are making it messy leading up to the convention with their months long call for Bernie to drop out.

[Garrett78]

28. I don't think Clinton or the DNC have once called for Sanders to drop out.

But perhaps you can provide a quote and prove me wrong.

[Cosmocat]

35. She hasn't

Someone posted that she had said she didn't need Bernie voters in the general.

I asked for a link or quote, and someone posted a video of her not saying anything remotely close to that, and after I noted that, they said she clearly implied it.

What people want to hear from her trumps what she actually says ...

[KPN]

40. Oh come on. Are you kidding me?

Only a thousand Hillary surrogates including Senators, Congressmen/women, Governors, DNC Committee members, and Hillary campaign staff have said point blank -- Bernie is hurting Hillary and the Democratic Party's prospects of beating Trump. Hillary herself has said in no so many words that "party unity" is critical to success in the fall and that she WILL BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to read between lines!

[Garrett78]

46. Show me a quote.

Show me a quote of Clinton or the DNC (presumably DWS, the spokesperson for the DNC) have called for Sanders to drop out.

[KPN]

48. How about we go back to, I dunno, two plus months ago. Direct from the head!

[link:http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/03/19/sand-m19.html|

[Garrett78]

51. It looks like you forgot to include the quote.

[KPN]

56. You don't know how to click on a link, or worst case -- cut and paste to the address bar?

[Garrett78]

63. I don't see a link in your last post.

[1StrongBlackMan]

42. In fact ... They have said ...

It's his call for how long he continues.

[beachbumbob]

29. I love these delusions...If you ignore facts..

..but really..less than 90 delegates...pledge or super and she is the nominee best get used to reality 101

[WhiteTara]

38. The SDs vote on the first ballot.

There will be no contested convention. Sorry

[Tarc]

44. You really don't know what the word "contested" means

The superdelegates vote alongside their state's pledged delegates. There will be no point in time the convention process when the nomination is in doubt; Hillary will enter the convention with the pledged delegate lead, and as they have always doen, the supers will vote for the pledged delegate leader.

[Renew Deal]

49. The primary ends around 10PM on June 7th

And if Sanders wants to hang around, watch what happens when Obama comes down on him.

[Agschmid]

54. There will be a vote, and that's about it for the contested part.

There will be a nominee after the first vote.

[DrDan]

58. She has them

[samsingh]

64. if bernie had those numbers, i know your argument would be different

afterall, the candidate who has 3 million votes more, more pledged delegates, and more super delegates should be the nominee.

[jamese777]

68. List Of Superdelegates

Wikipedia has a list of superdelegates, their positions and who, if anyone they have endorsed.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016

[jwirr]

81. And they have the right to change their minds at the last

minute as they did in 2008. At this point they have nothing to say about who is ahead or winning.

[jamese777]

124. In 2008 27 Superdelegates Switched

to Obama. That was 3.7% of the 724 1/2 Superdelegates.

The Stages of Grief and Loss:
1) Denial: He can still pull it out.
2) Anger: That witch is cheating.
3) Bargaining: We'll flip the Superdelegates.
4) Depression: I'm staying home on election day.
5) Acceptance: Won't come until after the convention.

[MisterP]

69. those superdelegates will be signing their own warrant: Clinton values loyalty in defense of

her, and only DWS will have passed muster as it gets closer and closer

[Corporate666]

77. Sorry, you don't understand how the convention works

A candidate does not need 2382 pledged delegates to win. They need 2383 total votes to win. Super delegate votes count just as much as pledged delegates.

Hillary needs 2382 pledged + super delegate votes.

She is 86 short of that number.



Now, you obviously know this, and making this post is an attempt to shore up your belief system. It's a common human characteristic to convince one's self through repetition and through seeking to get validation from others. It's the reason some religious kooks can't just privately practice their religion and want it legitimized by putting it on money or on gov't buildings, etc. It's the same reason climate change deniers will ignore reams of evidence and cling to a conspiracy theory.

And it is the reason some people on this forum delude themselves into thinking it will be a contested convention.

A lot of HRC supporters are positively *salivating* at the impending butt-hurt, pouting and toy-throwing that is coming in the next couple of weeks.

[apnu]

79. How do you arrive at this number?

There are 4051 pledged delegates and 715 super delegates. For a total of 4,766 delegates. She needs 2,383 to cinch.

Hillary currently has 1771 pledged delegates, and 508 supers by wikipedia's count. Thus she has 2,279 total delegates.

2,383 - 2,279 is 104. She need 104 more delegates from supers and/or pledged to win.

Bernie, on the other hand, has 1499 pledged delegates and 42 super delegates for a total of 1,541 delegates. Bernie's deficit is 842 delegates.

Now maybe you're thinking she'll "cinch" the nomination if she gets to 2,383 on pledged delegates alone, that is not the way the Democratic party calculates this and that would be irrational math to require over 50% of all delegates but to get there on pledged delegates alone. To reach over 50% in pledged delegates Hillary need 2026 pledged delegates. Because 4051/2 = 2025.5, so I rounded up to 2026.

Hillary's 1771 is a pledged delegate count, if she crosses 2026 pledged delegates she will have majority of pledged delegates and thus the acceptance of the people of the Democratic party. 2026 - 1771 = 255. Hillary needs 255 pledged delegates to win the pledged delegate subtotal. Given polling in CA and NJ, she is likely go earn the 255 she needs to win a majority of pledged delegates.

So that's my math using wikipedia's numbers.

If yours differs please show it.

[Beacool]

88. Sigh..........

I wish I had a dollar for every time that someone has to repeat the same information. I could go on vacation by now.

The super delegates have never gone against the will of the people. In 2008, even though Obama had a razor thin pledged delegate advantage (102 delegates) and he and Hillary were very close in the popular vote, the super delegates switched to the candidate with the most pledged delegates.

This year won't be any different, particularly since Hillary's pledged delegate and popular vote advantage is quite large.

Sanders won't be the nominee. It isn't that hard of a concept to grasp.

[panader0]

92. Sigh, "The super delegates have never gone against the will of the people."

In Minnesota, Bernie won by 61.6% to 38.4% for HRC. Al Franken is a super from Minnesota.
So did he follow the will of his constituents and give his vote to Bernie, the clear winner? No.
He went against the will of the people. He's just one example of this. There are many more.

[Garrett78]

97. This isn't a race for President of Minnesota.

Nationwide, Clinton will have won more pledged delegates. But even if the superdelegates were allocated proportionally or done away with completely, Clinton would still be the nominee.

[panader0]

98. Frame it however you like. It's definately against the will of the people who elected Franken.

[Garrett78]

112. Again, proportional allocation of superdelegates wouldn't change the result.

And, again, neither Sanders nor Clinton are running for President of Minnesota.

[Beacool]

107. Even if the super delegates in all the states that Sanders won switched to him,

they wouldn't be enough to win him the nomination.

[panader0]

110. While that may be true, it is also true that the supers do not always follow the will of the people.

[Garrett78]

115. You know what Beacool meant.

Never has the candidate with fewer pledged delegates been given the nomination thanks to superdelegates.

I say do away with superdelegates completely. It wouldn't change the result, though.

[underthematrix]

93. This makes no sense. The rules state the DEM nominee must have 2383 DELEGATES

It doesn't say they have to all be PLEDGED delegates. It requires that the nominee reach or exceed 2383 DELEGATES. HRC needs about 89 more DELEGATES which she will have by June 7th.

[AzDar]

100. K & R

[MariaThinks]

103. if you want to do that - take out the superdelegates from the equation

they are either in OR out.

[Lil Missy]

120. The superdelegates DO count. So sorry, but you don't get to change the rules in this election.

[JoePhilly]

121. Jump up and down and stomp your feet some more ...

... maybe that will help.

[B Calm]

129. The primary continues!

[senz]

130. Do the math: Hillary has NOT won. The primary continues.

So don't be lyin' to us, Hill Folk. Just cut it out.

And thank you for keeping the truth out there, amborin!

[PeaceNikki]

134. Superdelegates still count even though you don't like them

[Joob]

135. Wrong. You're Mixing the MSM lie. This is the math. She needs 254.5 pledged, he needs 526.5 pledged

2,384 is counting all delegates (including super) A MSM spin, so to speak.



(I'll go with this one seems most updated)

526.5 for Bernie to get to half

254.5 for Hillary to get half.

781 Pledged Delegates Left.

Bernie needs 67.41357234314981 % Pledged delegates

Hillary needs 32.58642765685019 % Pledged delegates

Steep climb!! Yes. He needs big ass wins. But Bernie supporters have consistantly said he needs to win 67%
Haven't seen otherwise.

EDIT: On that note they say 921 Delegates left so that means 135 Super Delegates left
(adjusted math to match most current results from numbers used in image)


You are including super delegates

[Gomez163]

136. It will be over on the first ballot. Then you can cry in your latte.

[senz]

138. People are waking up to the 1% lies.

If a corrupt Wall Street candidate gets nominated, there may be a few surprises along the way...

[Gomez163]

140. Blah blah blah.

[senz]

141. This kind of rudeness will help sink her.

[Gomez163]

143. Dont you hope

[johnp3907]

139. Nope.

[Demsrule86]

144. She needs less than 90

There is no contested convention ...that is why we have supers...Bernie is toast...and I thank God. Soon no more primary...Bernie concedes somewhere around June 7th...maybe that night.

[DCBob]

146. Contested only if Bernie insists on it.

Hillary could have contested in 2008 but she didnt and released her delegates to Obama. Lets hope Bernie is sensible enough to do the same.

[Garrett78]

155. And, as I asked in a thread I started, what's the benefit of contesting the convention?

Who does it benefit and how?

For whatever reason, some seem to love the idea of contesting the convention. They must think it's meaningful and beneficial in some way. But how? Have those advocating for a contested convention actually thought critically about what it would accomplish?

[MineralMan]

150. The contest will end on the first ballot.

Not much of a contest, really.

[Lil Missy]

151. Only in Bernie Math. And boy, are you going to be disappointed soon.

[SFnomad]

152. Secretary Clinton will be the Presumptive Nominee on June 7th ... just like Obama was the

Presumptive Nominee on June 3rd, 2008, where they counted Superdelegates as well, to determine that he had clinched the nomination.