538 Odds for Hillary, CA: 98%, NJ: 96%

[firebrand80]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-jersey-democratic/

[Goblinmonger]

1. And if she loses CA, then Silver and apologist will inform us that 98% isn't 100&

and his projections being wrong AGAIN weren't his fault.

His 15 minutes were up a while ago.

[firebrand80]

2. Bernie needs a blowout in CA

Unless your goal is to piss off Nate

[Goblinmonger]

5. Not talking about Sanders chances overall in the election.

I'm talking about the prediction of CA. I don't like meta data analysis people all that much (I'm a teacher and education meta analysis people give me a sad).

[yellowcanine]

3. "His 15 minutes were up a while ago." Wishful thinking.

Nate has been forthright about the unreliability of primary election predictions compared to general election predictions. And he has always pointed out that his predictions are based on probabilities. After 2012 when he wiped the floor with the wishful thinking Karl Roves etc. he IS the premier election prognosticator and he will remain so at least through this election.

[Goblinmonger]

4. If he were being honest about the unreliability of primary election predictions

he wouldn't be giving a 98% Clinton wins projection.

[yellowcanine]

7. As I said, wishful thinking. Nate sticks to his models. He is not dishonest.

Your claims not withstanding.

[thesquanderer]

6. Good news for Bernie there, I didn't think his odds in NJ were as high as 4%! (n/t)

[Surya Gayatri]

8. Well, that's music to my ears!

[oasis]

9. After the American public witnessed the tirade in Nevada, these

kind of poll numbers are no surprise.

[firebrand80]

10. I wonder how that could affect things

On the GOP side, there were some clues in the polling that the possibly of a shit-show at the convention was helping Trump, people on the fence believed he would be the nominee, and just wanted to put it all to bed. It's possible that we could see something similar on our side, voters might believe that the continuing primary is helping Trump.

[DesertRat]

11. Looking good! k&r

[kstewart33]

12. Good to know. Thanks for posting! nt