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Sat May 21, 2016, 11:32 AM

What would happen in a 3-way race?

If Bernie were to run as an independent against Clinton and Trump, wouldn't he draw not only his own already-in-place supporters but from each of the parties as well?

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Reply What would happen in a 3-way race? (Original post)
Merryland May 2016 OP
Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #1
thomservo May 2016 #3
JaneyVee May 2016 #15
WhaTHellsgoingonhere May 2016 #35
Tavarious Jackson May 2016 #16
thomservo May 2016 #19
HooptieWagon May 2016 #30
Henhouse May 2016 #13
YouDig May 2016 #2
hrmjustin May 2016 #4
yuiyoshida May 2016 #5
BillZBubb May 2016 #10
yuiyoshida May 2016 #11
Corporate666 May 2016 #43
yuiyoshida May 2016 #47
BillZBubb May 2016 #6
thomservo May 2016 #9
SFnomad May 2016 #17
BillZBubb May 2016 #23
SFnomad May 2016 #24
Jim Lane May 2016 #41
jwirr May 2016 #7
rug May 2016 #8
NorthCarolina May 2016 #12
firebrand80 May 2016 #14
SFnomad May 2016 #18
HooptieWagon May 2016 #31
SFnomad May 2016 #33
aikoaiko May 2016 #20
procon May 2016 #21
rusty fender May 2016 #22
timmymoff May 2016 #25
SheilaT May 2016 #26
yourpaljoey May 2016 #27
jeepers May 2016 #28
stevenleser May 2016 #46
Trajan May 2016 #29
Hiraeth May 2016 #32
jillan May 2016 #34
Kip Humphrey May 2016 #36
Tierra_y_Libertad May 2016 #37
Nye Bevan May 2016 #38
tritsofme May 2016 #40
stevenleser May 2016 #44
tritsofme May 2016 #39
stevenleser May 2016 #45
Rosa Luxemburg May 2016 #42

Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 11:35 AM

1. Trump and Bernie would split their vote

 

They appeal to the same voting block. Hillary would win.

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Response to Tavarious Jackson (Reply #1)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:01 PM

3. Please explain.

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Response to thomservo (Reply #3)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:20 PM

15. They agree on many issues.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #15)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:55 PM

35. So Hillary and Trump agree on virtually everything, too. This is going to be tighter than I thought

 

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Response to thomservo (Reply #3)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:39 PM

16. They both seem to have tapped into the anger in Americans

 

New voters mostly with no core beliefs. I do NOT mean everyone who is voting for them feels that way but I do believe many do.

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Response to Tavarious Jackson (Reply #16)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:49 PM

19. So by that logic...

If Sanders doesn't run third party Clinton loses.

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Response to Tavarious Jackson (Reply #16)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:23 PM

30. Clinton should be urging Ssnders to run third party, if that's the case.

 

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Response to Tavarious Jackson (Reply #1)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:17 PM

13. True, Hillary does not win the white, male, gun loving block...n/t

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 11:36 AM

2. Trump would win.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:02 PM

4. Not going to happen.

 

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:05 PM

5. Bernie said he would not run as an independent

why speculate on something that's not going to happen? Maybe in some alternative Universe that will happen but not on this earth.

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Response to yuiyoshida (Reply #5)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:10 PM

10. Do you think Hillary's recent behavior might free him of that pledge?

The way Bernie's supporters were treated in Nevada and Hillary's refusal to honor her pledge for a California debate certainly give him a reasonable basis to change his mind.

I agree that he won't, but he has an opening to do so.

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Response to BillZBubb (Reply #10)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:14 PM

11. Someone suggested that the Green Party

Jill Stein will draft him as Vice President, as an alternative, but even though she is interested in
doing that, I think he will bow out, which would be a shame, because that would garner her a ton of votes but... I don't think that will happen either. I think he will bow out and find some other way to fight for our future.

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Response to yuiyoshida (Reply #5)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:27 PM

43. I agree

Why speculate on something that's not going to happen.

So why is Bernie still giving interviews about what he would do if elected? It's like a couple of guys at a frat party talking about what they would do it Jennifer Lawrence walked in and threw herself at them.

Just like Bernie winning the nomination.... things that are just not going to happen.

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Response to Corporate666 (Reply #43)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:53 PM

47. In case you hadn't noticed

Hillary has not been declared the winner as yet. Your horse may be out by 8 lengths but if it falls and breaks a leg, before the finish line, its over. I don't know what will happen at the convention and neither does anyone else. There are NO FUNCTIONING crystal balls.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:07 PM

6. trump would win in the house of representatives.

Bernie would end up with about the Ross Perot percentage of the vote. I'd guess about 23%, which is historic for a 3rd party candidate. It would take enough votes from Hillary to deny her an electoral college win. That would throw the election into the house of representative, who with a solid republican majority would select trump as the next president.

What remains of the Democratic party would always blame Sanders and the left for president trump. Instead of learning the lesson that they shouldn't have run such a flawed and unpopular candidate, they'll blame the easy scapegoat--the left.

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Response to BillZBubb (Reply #6)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:09 PM

9. Bingo!

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Response to BillZBubb (Reply #6)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:42 PM

17. When your ego gets in the way and you run anyway, knowing it will cause a President tRump

 

it's not scapegoating pointing out the facts.

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #17)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:45 PM

23. Hillary's ego will cause president trump. Not Bernie's. Nice try though.

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Response to BillZBubb (Reply #23)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:48 PM

24. In a one on one race ... Secretary Clinton will win ... without a doubt. BS will lose it

 

for the Democrats, because BS doesn't care about the Democrats, he's just using them.

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Response to BillZBubb (Reply #6)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:23 PM

41. Trump wouldn't even need the House.

 

I'm certain Bernie won't do this, so this is all idle speculation that would appeal only to political junkies who are deficient at this "real life" business.

People like me, in other words. So here goes.

Bernie might well get a Perot-esque share of the popular vote but he'd probably also get a Perot-esque share of the electoral vote, namely zero. A candidate placing third nationwide can't get electoral votes without a regional base of support, because electoral votes are awarded by state (or, a few, by Congressional district). Consider 1948, when Thurmond (Dixiecrat) got 2.41% of the vote while Wallace (Progressive) got 2.37%. Thurmond got 39 electoral votes to Wallace's zero.

In a Clinton-Trump-Sanders(-Johnson-Stein-etc.) race, Bernie might carry Vermont, but that's it.

The main effect of such a candidacy would be that, because most of his votes would come from people who would otherwise have voted for Clinton, he would, in state after state, reduce her margin over Trump. In many of those states, the reduction would be enough to turn a Clinton win into a Trump win. Give Trump all the Romney states plus a win everywhere that Obama won by less than 10%, and he has 348 electoral votes. You tell me that Hispanic ire at Trump means that Clinton holds Colorado, Nevada, and Florida, and even flips Arizona? Fine, Trump still has 293 electoral votes.

Bernie understands this perfectly well. He probably didn't have the foresight to predict a Trump nomination but he certainly had the hindsight to see what Nader did. That's why Bernie decided, long before state ballot-access deadlines were a problem, that he would do what Nader should have done, namely contest the Democratic nomination. He's not going to change that now.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)


Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:08 PM

8. Bernie would become the Ross Perot of 2016.

 

Assuming he could get on enough ballots.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:15 PM

12. Bernie would win. -nt-

 

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:19 PM

14. Dem vote splits, trump wins 49 states nt

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 12:47 PM

18. What would happen in a 3-way race? President tRump ... and you can thank BS for that n/t

 

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #18)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:25 PM

31. In Reply #1 poster claims Sanders splits a Trump votes.

 

Wow, you Hillarians just make shit up and fling it all over, don't you?

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #31)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:48 PM

33. BS isn't going to split a tRump vote ... that's delusional

 

BS will take FAR more Secretary Clinton voters that he would tRump. That's called reality, something BS cheerleaders have issues with.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:03 PM

20. I wonder if any legit outfit is polling this question. It would be fascinating.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:12 PM

21. Trump would win and Sanders would become the national pariah. nt

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:13 PM

22. Do you remember Ross Perot's run in 1992?

He won over 19 million votes, but ZERO Electoral College votes. If Bernie runs 3rd party, he cannot win. He will only act as a spoiler. Why do it? Sounds like his supporters now just want the emotional satisfaction of sticking it to Hillary.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:55 PM

25. Ironically, they only way we eneded up with a president clinton was a three way race.

 

And without the first president Clinton we would be saying Hillary who? That's the true irony of this. people whining about a non existent third party run in which if there wasn't a realistic third party run in 1992 we would've had another term of bush 41

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:59 PM

26. It is getting rather tiresome to see

 

posts speculating that Bernie goes Independent.

Listen up. He's not going to. He's not an idiot. Even though Trump could well beat Clinton in a two-way race, he's made it clear he has no intention of running on his own.

For one thing, the deadline to get on the ballot in November is getting very close in some states. And he'd have to put some sort of organization in place to get all the signatures needed to do that.

Not gonna happen.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 01:59 PM

27. He will win

Listen to his current speeches.
You can tell he is considering it.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:07 PM

28. Bernie may win

but just as important is that a third party run will destroy the DNC

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Response to jeepers (Reply #28)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:30 PM

46. Nah, it wouldn't "Destroy" anything. It would just enable Trump's victory. nt

 

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:08 PM

29. I disagree with my fellow DUers in this thread

 

Bernie can win a three way race ... And win big ...

Nuff said

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:29 PM

32. If his name is on my ballot ....

....

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 02:51 PM

34. After DWS lies this past week, I wish Bernie would give the DNC the middle finger and do it.

He would win. He'd take roughly half of the dems with him, plus the independents (Bernie beats Trump with Indies, Hillary loses wto Trump with Indies) AND he'd get a handful of moderate repugs too.

It's a win.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 03:44 PM

37. More Vote for Me! commercials.

 

Now, the man on the stand he wants my vote,He's a-runnin' for office on the ballot note.
He's out there preachin' in front of the steeple,
Tellin' me he loves all kinds-a people.
(He's eatin' bagels
He's eatin' pizza
He's eatin' chitlins
He's eatin' bullshit! '


Bob Dylan

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 03:47 PM

38. Bernie would not be able to get on the ballot in many states ("sore-loser laws")

so he would have no chance of winning. But he might be able to draw enough votes from Hillary to hand the presidency to Donald Trump (just like Nader did to Bush).

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Response to Nye Bevan (Reply #38)

Sat May 21, 2016, 03:59 PM

40. Sore loser laws enforced against a presidential candidate would likely fall to lawsuits

Same with some early deadlines. As with term limits, states are very limited in any extra eligibility requirements they set for federal candidates outside of the constitution...to play along with this hypothetical...

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Response to tritsofme (Reply #40)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:27 PM

44. No they wouldn't. It's a very straightforward Article 2 section 1 issue

 

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/provisions.html

THE CONSTITUTION
Article II

Section 1. The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows
Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 03:55 PM

39. Neither Clinton nor Sanders would carry a single Romney 2012 state. Though splitting the Democratic

vote between Clinton and Sanders would enable Trump to carry several traditionally blue states, possibly with less than 40% of the vote, allowing him to win the electoral college while likely losing the popular vote by a considerable margin.

Another possibility would be Trump winning the Romney 2012 states, but then Clinton and Bernie splitting the rest of Obama's 2012 states, with Sanders winning enough EVs to deny Clinton an electoral college majority, throwing the election to the new House, which will more than likely still favor Republicans.

Best case scenario would be Clinton still prevailing in enough states to win a clear electoral college majority, while perhaps only shedding a small outlier like Vermont to Sanders.

This is a bad plan, a very bad plan.

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Response to tritsofme (Reply #39)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:29 PM

45. Agree. Trump would probably win a narrow victory. nt

 

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Response to Merryland (Original post)

Sat May 21, 2016, 09:25 PM

42. he's not going to run as as an independent

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