Reality check on Pennsylvania:

[geek tragedy]

1) Obama has 54 field offices, Romney has 24

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/politics-national/obama-romney-have-bypassed-pennsylvania-in-advertising-war-until-now-659793/

2) Obama's lead there is at least 4 times as great as Romney's is in Florida (using RCP for worst case scenario):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

3) If Pennsylvania was truly within reach, Romney would have invested time and money much earlier.

4) In fact, Romney moved resources from Pennsylvania to Ohio in October

5) Democrats have a 1 million voter registration edge

6) McCain tried this shit in 2008, and lost by 10 points.

7) For the last 10 polls there, Romney's best result (46% according to Rasmussen, Pharos, Quinnipiac on separate dates) is two points worse than Obama's WORST results of 48 (Gravis, Let Freedom Ring/Baby Rasmussen).

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-pennsylvania-president-romney-vs-obama

[Jennicut]

1. All great points. PA was never in play.

Even the great Repub water carrier Scott Rasmussen admits it.

[geek tragedy]

3. The last one I added is maybe the most convincing.

Romney's best # is 46 in polls. The lowest number Obama has shown in any Pennsylvania poll is 48. None of those numbers happened in the same poll. The margin is remarkably consistent.

[amborin]

9. this

ruined my evening last evening: tell me R does not stand a chance ini PA:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/in-shift-romney-campaign-makes-push-in-pennsylvania.html?ref=politics

[geek tragedy]

10. It's desperation. They can't move the needle anywhere else, so they're tossing a hail mary.

This is a fourth down deep ball, because 1st down (Ohio), 2nd down (Wisconsin, Iowa) and 3d down (NH, NV) were all incomplete passes.

They have more money than they know what to do with.

[amborin]

11. ok, thanks!

i feel better now.

[JRLeft]

2. PA is fools gold. Just like Michigan and Minnesota.

[geek tragedy]

4. For some reason, it's always Pennsylvania they lunge at.

Michigan and Minnesota they usually abandon pretty quickly (though having their convention in MN in 2008 was pretty epic fail).

[naviman]

5. 20/21 EVs

Eliminates the need for Ohio.

[yellowcanine]

6. PA only goes R in a Presidential election when it is a R landslide.

Romney is either desperate or he is blowing smoke. They are basing this all on the coal vote in Greene County PA, with a little less than 23,000 registered voters. Obama actually lost the county in 2008 by 60 votes to McCain so it is not as if some massive shift in votes is occurring. Most of the people unhappy with Obama probably didn't vote for him in 2008. At most he will likely lose the county by a few thousand votes in a state he is likely to win with a margin of at least three hundred fifty thousand votes, assuming he wins by only 5%, half his 10% winning margin in 2008.

This is a great example of campaign spin, every talking head pushing this mentions "Obama collapsing in the Southwest PA Coal Region." What they don't tell you is that this is one county with less than 23,000 registered voters.

[BlueCaliDem]

7. Chris Matthews mentioned that PA is Republican fool's gold.

The always feel as if they'll win the state, but never do.

[MyOwnPeace]

8. From PA

You have to think of the state as the letter "T" - place that letter over the map of the state and where you see the "T" you see the repugs! Then check the population area - ain't no "T" there!

Yes, if you're living somewhat away from the urban centers, you're gonna' find a bunch of RR signs. "Be not afraid, for "I" am with you!"

While it can be discouraging to see so many of "them" - you have to keep faith in what is right. I'll be out in one of the "fringe" areas on Monday passing out PRESIDENT OBAMA literature - my effort to support the future of this great country.

[livetohike]

14. I'm in the "T" and it's a visually beautiful place to live in the Pennsylvania Wilds, but

the RR signs are so sickening and my Obama/Biden sign was stolen weeks ago. (Replaced that with signs nailed up on the trees though .

My husband and I work at the polls and we are outnumbered in registrations 3:1. Can't wait to get home and see the returns and Pres. Obama the winner.

[reflection]

12. Hope you're right. Think you are.

It's probably just horse-race mentality on the part of the media.

[november3rd]

13. Pitching' In

I'm going down to Philly from NYC on a bus with OFA on Monday and Tuesday to help GOTV!

[Cha]

15. THank you, november3rd!

[geek tragedy]

16. We have a sick kitty, otherwise I'd be there with you.

Thank you for representing!

[AlinPA]

17. We are being bombarded with Romney ads on TV in W. PA. IMO, no one is listening and their

"mute" buttons are being worn out.