The Poll that is Most Accurate: Who Do Americans Think will Win?

[VirginiaTarheel]

A version of that question has produced similarly telling results throughout much of modern polling history, according to a new academic study. Over the last 60 years, poll questions that asked people which candidate they expected to win have been a better guide to the outcome of the presidential race than questions asking people whom they planned to vote for, the study found. The study also offers another window on the current presidential contest and the endless debate over what the polls mean. In the last three weeks, polls — including by ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Politico/George Washington University and Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS — have consistently found that more Americans expect President Obama to win than expect Mr. Romney to win.

The margins have varied between 13 and 24 percentage points for Mr. Obama among samples of likely voters, registered voters and all adults. The gap is similar to one from a Gallup poll in mid-October 2004, when 56 percent of respondents expected Mr. Bush to win, compared with 36 percent for Mr. Kerry. The study also offers another window on the current presidential contest and the endless debate over what the polls mean. In the last three weeks, polls — including by ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Politico/George Washington University and Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS — have consistently found that more Americans expect President Obama to win than expect Mr. Romney to win.

The margins have varied between 13 and 24 percentage points for Mr. Obama among samples of likely voters, registered voters and all adults. The gap is similar to one from a Gallup poll in mid-October 2004, when 56 percent of respondents expected Mr. Bush to win, compared with 36 percent for Mr. Kerry.

In presidential races since 1952, the expectations question has pointed to the winner in 81 percent of states, based on data from the American National Election Studies. The question about voting intentions pointed to the winner in 69 percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/a-better-poll-question-to-predict-the-election.html?hp

[TroyD]

1. The numbers for Obama on this question have always been good

But they have been declining over the past month since the First Presidential Debate.

Now that Obama may have some momentum again, they may begin going back up.

What I'd like to know is why most Americans thought Bush was going to be elected in 2004. It's disturbing, but it explains one of the reasons why Kerry wasn't able to quite get the traction he needed. He just didn't seem to catch fire with the public. As weak as Bush was, it looks like he was able to project a confidence and aura of winnability.

[doc03]

2. The Republicans I know all think Obama will win and I am afraid

Romney will win.