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Random Walk-President Obama Has A 96.4% Chance Of Winning Wisconsin
infernoman wrote on Nov 01, 2012 14:42:52 #
In reply to NPtrade's comment on Nov 01, 2012 14:37:35 who wrote: Comments on WI chart (
). I sp...
Cool stuff, NPTrade. Here's my own estimate of WI.
Trimmed-mean, all polls sampled entirely in the past 21 days for each target day, all polls.
Current Obama margin: 3.58%. Standard deviation per day: 0.27%. Random walk model basically says if volatility matches the historical data, then there is no chance of a Romney victory here.
