Iowa 2012 Early Vote Total now Exceeds all of 2008 Early Votes

[VirginiaTarheel]

By last night, 557,432 Iowans had voted early. 43.3% Democratic, 32.2% Repub, 24.4% Other/None.


http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[bushisanidiot]

1. "Enthusiasm gap" my ass!

the mainstream media spun and spun and spun the "enthusiasm gap" myth.
it's clear that it never existed.

[Amphigouri]

2. I hate to say this, but

That's not good news. In [link:http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html|2008 democrats outpaced republicans 47% to 29% in early voting. That is a 7 point swing in the repugs favor. Obama only won the state by 7%. Iowa is going to be a nail-biter.

[Flipper999]

3. Agreed. This is too close to call it for Obama.

*sigh*

[Maximumnegro]

12. Oh puhlease tell the campaign that

because they have been confident in IA for weeks. So you must know something they don't.

[Amphigouri]

13. Projecting confidence is playing politics

And both parties do it. I was calling IA yesterday while living in Florida. They may be confident, but they clearly are using resources from other swing states to call IA. I think they believe IA is close, but winnable, as the polls indicate.

[geek tragedy]

5. Obama won by 9, and the key figure is the total vote gap. Romney will have to make that up

on election day. In 2004, Democrats cast about 52,000 more and we barely lost. In 2008 they cast 90,000+ more and we won in a blowout.

Right now we're about 61,000 ahead.



What we can't tell from that data:

1) How are the independents voting;
2) Are the Democrats and Republicans voting people who would have voted on election day anyways, or are they people who had to be prodded into voting?

[BlueDemKev]

9. Agreed. I have Iowa on my "bonus" state list

Path to 270 Electoral Votes

MUST-WIN states:

Ohio (18)
Wisconsin (10)
Nevada (6)
while holding PA (20), MI (16), and MN (10)

These states alone will get us to 271.


BONUS States: (we don't necessarily need to win these, but they can help offset any loss in the "must-win" states)

Virginia (13) (will become a "must-win" if we lose Ohio)
New Hampshire (4) (will become a "must-win" if we lose Ohio)
Iowa (6) (Will become a "must-win" if we lose both Ohio and Virginia or Nevada)
Colorado (9)(Will become a "must-win" if we lose both Ohio and Virginia)


My gut feeling is we'll win Wisconsin, Nevada (and hold PA, MI, and MN) which puts our EV total at 253. So that leaves us with three (3) scenarios:

1) If we win Ohio, it's over, because we'll have 271 EV's

2) If we lose Ohio, we'll have to win Virginia PLUS either New Hampshire, Iowa, OR Colorado.

3) If, God Forbid, we lose both Ohio and Virginia, then we must SWEEP New Hampshire, Iowa, AND Colorado (pretty tall order, but not impossible).

[Jennicut]

15. Obama won the state by 9.5%, not 7%.

[barbiegeek]

4. Yes-LOTS of Independents are voting for Romney

I am worried.

GOTV in Iowa has alot of work to do.

[geek tragedy]

6. Obama leads amongst independents, according to PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/IowaWisconsinPollingMemo103112.pdf

[barbiegeek]

7. I hope you are right!! BUT we only won by 7% are ENOUGH Independents breaking for Obama

[barbiegeek]

8. That is not enough. I'm scared

[geek tragedy]

10. Democrats outnumber Republicans, so if Obama wins independents victory is guaranteed. Chill. nt

[VirginiaTarheel]

11. It's tight, but the GOP has emphasized early voting in 2012 much more than 2008

From Daily Kos:

It was kind of a slow day for early voting. We cast about 560 more ballots than Republicans yesterday so that's welcome news. We now lead in ballots cast by 61,755. By the end of early voting in 2008 (about 545,000 ballots cast), we led Republicans by about 94,000 ballots cast. By the end of early voting in 2004 (about 460,000 ballots cast) we were ahead by 52,000 ballots cast. We're running behind 2008, but ahead of 2004. I like our position. Do you?

And now, I offer my prediction of Iowa:

Obama 51.2% The Stench 48.1%

It seems to me by looking at the early voting numbers that the Democratic base in Iowa is more fired up than in other places. It merits repeating: We have bested Republicans in early voting in every single report of the entire early voting period, and all these figures include mail-in ballots.

And according to the latest PPP poll, Indies are breaking for us 50% to 43%, so that is welcome news. And my great hope is that the American public saw a President and a Candidate over the past few days. You know what I mean.

[FBaggins]

14. So have we.

If anything, we've emphasized it more than they have.