A Notation for the record - Silver has North Carolina at 82% Romney

[grantcart]

The two expressions that always make me chuckle are "disgruntled worker" (what, pray tell, is a "gruntled worker"?) and "for the record" (as if there is some mythical record keeper that is actually keeping track of what is being said by who.

But in this case I want to make a bench mark for a conversation we can have after the election about polls and predictive models.

I believe that predictive models only have value in close elections, who needs to know the percent of Utah going Romney or Hawaii going Obama.

So with one week before the election let it be recorded by the gruntled record keeper that:

Nate Silver has the chances of Obama winning North Carolina at 12%.

We note that the President continues to lead in early voting with record turnout among the AA population there. We also note that of the last 8 polls in NC 4 (Survey, Ras, National Research and Gravis) had Romney ahead. Three polls (Elon and two Grove polls) have Obama ahead. PPP has it a tie.

And yet Silver continues to say that it is a statistical lock with Romney's chance of winning at 82%.

And finally we note that while it might be prudent to ask a person whether or not they are registered or not, and exclude that person, in other state polls, in NC with one stop register/polling that question is irrelevent.

Here are the polls that Silver is using

SurveyUSA Romney +5
Elon Obama +.1
Rasmussen Romney +6 (2 bars)
PPP tied
Grove Obama +3 (2 bars)
Gravis Obama + 8

Unless noted all of the polls have 4 bars (including Gravis) meaning that Silver gives it full weight.

Remember, Nate, Romney has a lock on North Carolina.

To be fair yesterday was the first day that the Obama campaign didn't dominate the early voting in NC. It might be a fluke, storm related, or a trend.

I just can't see how you see it a lock for Romney.

[Democrats4All]

1. its all about getting out the vote

never rely on polls and opinions to fill out that ballot its all about getting out the vote and the ground game

[blm]

2. We're setting records on GOTV here - every donation would help fill gas tanks.

http://www.mecklenburgdemocrat.org/

We need record-breaking turnout in Mecklenburg County to bring it home for Obama and crucial Dem governor, congressional, and judges races.

Mecklenburg County is where the most votes are to be had - EVERY donation means help with a tank of gas for our GOTV. The ride to the polls drive is setting records already for early voting.

[PsychProfessor]

4. I just donated $100

Y'all better bring out those voters!!!! I'll be watching and cheering.

[blm]

5. Thanks - we're throwing EVERYTHING we have into this and have since before convention

For sure, every dollar helps.

[Cha]

11. THANK YOU, BLM!

[blm]

13. Thank YOU Mizz Cha. ; )

.

[courseofhistory]

3. Also

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251194496

[WI_DEM]

6. Gravis is Romney +8 (but then again Gravis is meaningless anyway).

[BlueDemKev]

7. We probably won't win NC, but it's okay

We can still win comfortably without it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. You are really pessemistic, aren't you? In every thread, just a downer.

[grantcart]

10. may have misunderstood about feeling 'blue'.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

15. What's your take on this, Grantcart?

I know you crunch the numbers. It appears from the data above that Obama is doing as well this year as he was in 2008. Unless Nate is predicting a very large turnout on Election Day that negates that early voting advantage. But early voting is up this year, and I assume there's a finite number of voters in North Carolina, so how big could the Election Day surge be?

[grantcart]

19. Its going to be close, so any idea of a lock or even a leaning is incompetence.

The polling numbers are all suspect but PPP probably is the best and the reason for that is in NC there is no such thing as a 'non registered voter'. If you want to vote you can one stop register/vote.

So when the pollsters ask if they are a registered voter, likely voter, etc it may make sense elsewhere but not in NC.

In NC you have the "I am voting" guy and the "I am on the sofa" guy.

But here is the statistics in NC as of today

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?ID=33

Democratic: 2,854,886Republican: 2,043,739Libertarian: 18,856Unaffiliated: 1,699,984Total: 6,617,465

We have an 800,000 advantage in party registration.

All of the polls are based on low Democratic turnout, especially AA.

We are seeing record turnout, especially high among AA.



We are leading by about 100,000. Question is are the Republican early voters voting early or have they added voters. For the Democrats how many sporadic voters are we getting in and how many more can we get in on election day.

No one knows the answer to these questions but I cannot see any reason to put NC at 82% Romney if you look beyond the Republican pollsters like Gravis.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

20. That's pretty much where I'm at....

I think calling it "dead even" would be crawling out on a statistical limb about now. And giving Romney an 82% chance simply doesn't scan with the data I'm looking at. Unless Nate has something he's not sharing, but even then, I don't see it.

[RomneyLies]

17. The poster is very consistent

and that consistency is 100% in line with your observations.

[mnhtnbb]

8. I am going to take great enjoyment in sending Nate an e-mail on Nov 7 telling him

he FUCKED THAT ONE!!!!!



Because we are going to TURN NC BLUE

[Cha]

12. i LOVE YOUR OPTIMISM, MNHTNBB!!

[mnhtnbb]

16. We have the numbers and OFA is turning them out.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251171317

[Lex]

14. Bookmarking!

Thanks grantcart.

[progressivebydesign]

18. Why is he stil giving Gravis any weight at all??

Found it interesting in his interview with Charlie Rose that he is a "somewhere between liberal and libertarian" and is not voting. Silver said that "if he had to vote it would be between Gary Johnson and Mitt Romney" Could be why he refuses to dump Gravis, which he should.

[maxsolomon]

21. I'm seeing Romney at 59.3% in FL

FL would be a nice consolation for not taking NC!

[grantcart]

22. 59??????????????????????????????

Early voting has wiped out traditional Republican edge in absentee, a 200,00 vote swing.

I would give him Fl but by a couple of votes.

Although Sandy may have delivered FL for Obama

[maxsolomon]

23. I mean that Nate Silver has Romney at a 59.3% chance of winning

i should have been more specific.

[kwolf68]

24. NC will be a surprise

ALL of Obama's numbers are tracking well behind what he did in 2008. And he didn't win NC by much, so it makes sense that Obama won't win North Carolina. Unless by some chance Obama has a bunch of new voters (who didn't vote in 2008) making up for those who are not voting for him this time (or abstaining).

Look at the numbers. Obama will win states like PA, MI, WISCO, NV, maybe even OHIO but ALL by much lower margins than in 2008. Obama won Indiana last time, but won't win it this time.

So if Obama has lost 'share' in those states, why don't folks believe he'd be losing share in NC. Basically, the margin for error in Ohio, PA, WI is too large for the general wave of dissatisfaction to overcome in most of those states. But in a state like NC where Obama barely won it last time, it is logical to believe there is enough swing to give Romney that state.

I wouldn't worry at all about North Carolina and I think Nate's method is accurate and NC will probably go for Romney.

[PsychProfessor]

25. I tend to agree but

I think NC is a real wild card, certainly more of a toss up than, say, Nevada (which many are calling still a toss up rather than a clear Obama state). The level of motivation in the African American community, I think, is very high. We will see what happens. I don't think Obama will take NC, but I wouldn't bet against him there either. Cannot wait for Tuesday!