Cook Political: The Numbers Favor Hillary Clinton Over Trump

[brooklynite]

Cook Political Report

Now that the presidential nominations are set for each side, pollsters are busy surveying states and, with their strategists, poring over the data, trying to ascertain the contours of the fall election. From one election to the next, some small changes have to be worked into their calculus. Both parties have a core of states that are certain to go their way; they consider other states highly likely but not certain; still other states lean to one party or the other but are still in play; and finally some states are toss-ups. Needless to say, the toss-ups will attract the bulk of campaign spending.

Based on past election results as well as many conversations with pollsters in both parties with access to far more data than is publicly available, Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, starts off with a strong lead in 18 states plus the District of Columbia with a total of 217 electoral college votes, which represent 80 percent of the 270 needed to win. The Cook Political Report rates these states as either “Solid” or “Likely” Democratic. The presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump begins with strong leads in 21 states with a total of 190 electoral votes, 70 percent of the 270 mark. We rate these states as Solid or Likely Republican. Up for grabs are a dozen states with a total of 157 electoral votes. We put these states in the “competitive” columns of “Lean Democratic,” “Toss-Up,” or “Lean Republican”.

This is where is gets complicated for Trump. Six of those 12 states are leaning toward Clinton. They would bring her 87 electoral votes, 34 more than necessary to reach 270. Those states are Colorado (nine), Florida (29), Nevada (six), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). All six voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012.

In the comparable Lean Republican column are Arizona (11) and Georgia (16), both of which went for John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. That leaves four states in the Toss-Up column: Iowa (six), New Hampshire (four), North Carolina (15), and Ohio (18), along with Nebraska’s Second Congressional District (one), totaling 44 electoral votes. All four of the states voted for Obama in 2008 and all but North Carolina in 2012 as well. Keep in mind that Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that awards their electoral votes by congressional districts with the extra two votes going to the statewide winner.

[LonePirate]

1. That first sentence will attract some comments I predict.

[onehandle]

2. Hillary Clinton Is Statistically The Most Favored Presidential Candidate In Modern History

Donald Trump was the runaway winner in the Indiana primary, as expected. Polls, and the demographics of the state, had suggested as much. And as usual during this election, they’ve been proven right.

Less than three weeks ago, Mr Trump’s odds had fallen to 55 per cent. Now, he is as likely to be the Republican nominee as Hillary Clinton is to be the Democratic nominee, with both a 98 per cent favourite in the betting markets.

Now that he’s wrapped up the nomination, his chances of being America’s next president have shot up from 17 per cent to 29 per cent. But that still makes Hillary Clinton a 69 per cent favourite (Mr Sanders or ‘some other Republican’ both have a 1 per cent chance).

That means Ms Clinton begins this six-month race more favoured than any other candidate in modern history: more than Mr Obama ever was against John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012, or George Bush was against Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/trump-clinton-begins-as-the-most-lopsided-race-in-the-modern-era-a7012321.html

[MADem]

3. I think a lot of people just CAN'T vote for Trump. He's appalling. nt