Nate Silver's 538.com 10/31 AM: EV: 299 (O), 239 (R); Chance of winning: 77.4% (O), 22.6% (R)

[VespertineIconoclast]

CO: 60.7 (O)
IA: 74.4 (O)
OH: 77.6 (O)
VA: 61.8 (O)
NH: 75.4 (O)
FL: 59.3 (R)

I could be incorrect, but the President Obama leaning swing states seem to be even more POTUS leaning this AM and FL seems to be leaning away from Rmoney.

[mucifer]

1. Looks like we could get FL

[VespertineIconoclast]

3. I know.

I will be so proud of FL if they can just help put President Obama even further over the top with votes.

[Coyotl]

16. I love this update, 300+ here we come.

Not much time left to place your "official" prediction:

***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060

[Sky Masterson]

2. Sam Wang has it at

As of October 30, 8:01PM EDT:
Obama: 305
Romney: 233
Meta-margin: Obama +2.36%
RSS
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 93%, Bayesian Prediction 98
http://election.princeton.edu/

I think he is ahead on Intrade too.

All three were pretty close to accurate in the last election.

[VespertineIconoclast]

13. I have to admit I'm not very familiar with Sam Wang...

and his predictions. I was looking at his 2008 predictions and he was pretty close to accurate.

I want all of these positive trends for President Obama to continue into election day, so he can easily slide into re-election.

[Sky Masterson]

21. it's different now

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/27/landfall/

As of October 31, 10:05AM EDT:
Obama: 318
Romney: 220
Meta-margin: Obama +2.60%
RSS
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 95%, Bayesian Prediction 99%

[VirginiaTarheel]

4. This confirms VA and FL surge seen in other recent polls

[smorkingapple]

5. NC is gone guys. Don't get your heart broken on election day...

Even the turnout won't make a difference if Silver is right.

FL seems lost too but it's closer

[VirginiaTarheel]

6. Unlike you, I am not ignoring all the great recent FL polls showing Obama surging ahead there

[NCLefty]

7. If Obama wins my heart will be just fine.

[DemKittyNC]

8. N.C. is NOT Gone!

Nate doesn't include early voting in his formula. If he did N.C. would be as blue as the day time sky.

[blue-kite]

10. DKNC... I think you might be sad... I'm predicting a 0.3% win by Rommers.

But I'd be happy to be prooved very wrong.
Cheers

[DemKittyNC]

11. Not going to happen

It statistically can't happen unless they steal if big time here. We have over 800,000 More Democrats then repuglicans in this State this election year. If Obama pulled it off in 2008 here even though support for John McCain was just obscene back then and it is absolutely zilch for Rmoney this year then it will definitely go blue this time. I have no doubts.

[blue-kite]

14. I'll be very happy to be proven wrong!

[davidpdx]

17. I know people don't like debby downers

But it does seem NC and FL are going to be tough to win. If we can get a high turnout like last time it's possible.

I want to take OH and Virginia because those essentially deliver a knock out punch to Romney and Obama would get 314 assuming he carries Iowa, Colorado and Nevada as well (Yes, the combination of NC and FL would do the same if you wanted to argue the reverse and actually that combination would be slightly higher at 327).

That being said I hope we sweep the swing states. It probably won't happen though. I'd bet at least one will flip.

[NCLefty]

9. Here's Nate's tweet on the big shift in chance for Obama since yesterday:

Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight

Obama up to 77% in tonight's 538 forecast (from 73%). He got decent polls in OH; model super sensitive to those.

[VespertineIconoclast]

20. Thanks for the info.

I think that President Obama will continue to get more and more good polls out of Ohio and other swing states.

[Rustycup]

12. Nate needs to run the numbers with

the impact of Sandy and if those people can't get to the polls. The last thing 17 states are thinking about right now is next Tuesday.....

[mgcgulfcoast]

15. this is great news.

[Coyotl]

18. We are seeing the "Jeep Lie" effect in Ohio already, and it will trend further before Tuesday.

Imagine the effect in Montana when they realize Mitt rides "English"

[VespertineIconoclast]

19. Mitt's "Jeep Lie" reeks of desperation.

I believe most Ohioans are smart enough to know that.

[ffr]

22. Where's NV in the mix? FIXED.

CO: 60.7 (O)
IA: 74.4 (O)
OH: 77.6 (O)
VA: 61.8 (O)
NH: 75.4 (O)
FL: 59.3 (R) *
NV: 82.8 (O)

* I'm not so sure Nate's getting the numbers right in Florida either.