2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumJoe Scarborough calls Nate Silver an ideologue and joke. Silver responds on PBS (with video)
Nate Silver was on PBS's Charlie Rose show. I recored the part where he answers the attacks from Morning Joe.
The video is posted here.
Sorry its a little sloppy. I'm not an internet video expert by a long shot.
elleng
(135,051 posts)Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)He doesn't need to bother with what a dumbass thinks about his finely-tuned model.
Tombiag
(17 posts)Nate Silver's a right-winger!
Someone needs to send this to Dean Chambers
Kurovski
(34,657 posts)Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)And why would a right-winger start off his political "pundit" career on DailyKos?
mzmolly
(51,435 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)along with the fact that he's not voting anymore since joining the NYT?
He's changed completely. He always presented himself as a liberal and an Obama voter. Why is he so reluctant to say so now?
mzmolly
(51,435 posts)overall.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)It would be a Johnson vs Romney choice.
mzmolly
(51,435 posts)thanks. I also did some research after watching.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)he says if he were voting it'd be a choice between Johnson and Romney. Disturbing to hear him say that. I always had such respect for him.
mzmolly
(51,435 posts)not necessarily his political views.
Lord_Maculus
(53 posts)And immediately followed up by saying "So it'd be a choice between Johnson and Romney." So I think that was a slip up and he meant to say he'd be deciding between Johnson and Obama if he were voting. Unless he really believes that Mitt is back to being a liberal now... lol.
Kurovski
(34,657 posts)but Nate won't be voting.
i'm not judging, just stating.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Joe Scar has no idea how Nate's model works. He is essentially lazy intellectually.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)vis-a-vis the "Johnson vs Romney decision" might explain why he's sometimes appeared to be reaching (in his columns, not the crux of his model) more for positives in that direction than the more clinical assessment offered by Sam Wang. With that said, I don't think there's bias in his numbers. Perhaps some subconscious weighting issues, but nothing to be concerned about; I think his solid track record speaks for itself.
elleng
(135,051 posts)Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)Is how he frames the choice if he were to vote this year. It's pretty clear.
WCGreen
(45,558 posts)news because he was inside the machine, pal.
They are cock sure of themselves because they have had success at the polls which validates the high opinion of themselves. It's a heady feeling to win an election to know that you have been proven better than the other guy or gal.
Believe me, I know. I won a primary election, I crushed the guy. You can't believe what that feels like.
But then again, I am a realists and I purposely erased all of that nonsense out of my head and started from scratch.
Anyway, Scar is a typical politician who had everything going his way. I don't know why he quit but he did and he knows he left on top of his game. Now I hear he is thinking about running for the GOP nomination. Good luck to him. Hs ego will come rushing down to the ground especially when he no longer has his forum every morning.
When Obama wins next week, the long knifes on the left will be out. The Democrats have a lot of eager people who want to continue the Democrats in the Oval Office. And it will be easier because the GOP is losing their base as their big guns start to die off and or retire.
Things are going to be different in 2016 especially if things are still in a state of flux as far as the economy, environment and energy solutions go. These are the man issues that are coming at us fast and we need a left leaning centrist to grab hold of the opportunity of change that president Obama started and run with it into the 2020's.
CaliforniaPeggy
(151,489 posts)Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)Who needs F-list celebrities gabbing about polls and campaign ads when some stat wonk can predict the election months in advance?
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)politrixjunkie
(42 posts)It was obvious he was jealous when he said that.
augie-va
(7 posts)but who gives a damn! Thanks so much!
budkin
(6,849 posts)Romney is not between liberal and libertarian.
elleng
(135,051 posts)Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)We're supposed to turn to Todd and Brokaw for their hackneyed narratives and analysis, rather than listen to Nate, who puts holes in their horse race theories.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Nate just said so but that was just passed by like it didn't matter.
exboyfil
(17,914 posts)It is interesting to look at Jan. 82 (enough time for Reagan's policy to start taking effect) to Nov. 84. The unemployment rate was 8.6% on its way to a high of 10.8% in Dec. 82. At election time in Oct. 84 it was 7.4%
For Obama Jan. 2010 9.7% to Sep. 2012 of 7.8%.
It may be heresy on this board, but I do think moving the marginal tax rated from 70% to 50% was a good thing. Below 50% becomes more of a question. I think the optimum is somewhere between 40% and 50%.
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)underpants
(185,644 posts)marking for a later watch
polichick
(37,453 posts)smorkingapple
(827 posts)#1 wouldn't make a difference in NY
#2 now he could credibly call himself an independent which adds to his credibility for next cycle
#3 all right wing attacks go out the window
Hamlette
(15,489 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,672 posts)bamacrat
(3,867 posts)Nate was on Real Time last week, super awesome.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I believe that he really supports Obama.
Again, my opinion.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)...loser.
And idiot.
Do you really want to get into a pissing match over who has "brains"?
WARNING Joe! You would LOSE!
ejbr
(5,867 posts)just1voice
(1,362 posts)So are most MSMedia people, the entire medium has been thoroughly discredited for years and they are now owned by 6 corporations:
http://broadcastunionnews.blogspot.com/2012/06/six-6-corporation-own-90-of-all.html
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)"If you're talking to someone whose entire purpose is to spin results in as favorable a way as they possible can for their campaigns, then they assume that everyone else is tainted by the same disease that they have."
I also think it was a *brutal* takedown of Joe. Saying he's not using math & history is a nice way of saying he's full of crap :p