Bernie will win. One foot in front of the other, folks.

[grahamhgreen]

It will come down to Bernie needing to win X number of delegates in California.

And California will not let us down.

[brooklynite]

1. Platitudes built on no data...if that makes you happy, go for it.

[JDPriestly]

2. I'm here in California. Bernie is very strong here.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. Bernie is strong everywhere... and growing stronger...

The super delegates are starting to realize that only Bernie can put out the tRumpster fire... soon they will all flip to Bernie, watch.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[LoverOfLiberty]

35. This sounds awfully familiar

Oh yeah, Romney 2012.

I ignored the polls in 2004 and really believed that Kerry would win because I truly believed that he was the only right choice.

Sadly, it didn't change reality.

[grahamhgreen]

43. We are!

[auntpurl]

3. Honest question.

Why do you think Bernie will do so well in California?

In 2008, Hillary won California. Obama was perceived as the more liberal candidate in that primary (although I think they were pretty much even on that score).

So other than anecdotal "I've seen tons of yard signs and bumper stickers" evidence, what makes you think California will go big for Bernie?

[greyl]

4. California loves awesome.

Bernie is awesome.

[auntpurl]

5. ...right.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

22. He sure is!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[Live and Learn]

6. The anecdotal is pretty darn strong. I have seen exactly 2 Hillary bumper stickers

since this started and no yard signs. On the other hand, I have seen plenty of Bernie stickers, pins and yard signs.

Anecdotal, maybe but I have never seen less enthusiasm for a candidate in CA in any primary.

In fact, I invited Hillary supporter DUers to join me in campaigning and only got one taker who decided at the last minute that he would rather observe me from McDonalds than participate in talking to or registering voters.

[Adrahil]

7. Anecdotal evidence is nice and all...

But there is no chance.... None, that Bernie will win Californaia by 30 points, which is what he needs.

Even if he over performs his polls, as a he often does in open primaries, he will not win by 30.

[auntpurl]

8. I think Hillary supporters aren't brilliant with yard signs

And bumper stickers. That's been my impression so far this primary.

Where are you in California? I'm from the east coast so obviously you would know better, but aren't there more and less conservative areas of California?

Why do you think Hillary won in 2008 against Obama?

[Live and Learn]

10. So. CA here. All I can tell you is that I have never seen anything like the support for Bernie here.

I have campaigned for others before but the interest has never been this great. People stop me just for wearing a Bernie t-shirt and ask if they can get one or some buttons. In fact, the other day, we stopped at a pretty high end restaurant for drinks after a day of campaigning. After viewing our Bernie shirts, the bartenders (all 3 of them) refused to take our money and asked if they could get some buttons. It was amazing.

And they love to talk about the issues and the rigged system.

At a Green Party sponsored vegan fest last week, we had people lined up to either switch party preference so they could vote for Bernie or to register for the first time. Amazing. As I was attempting to leave a ninety year old lady stopped me and asked for a Bernie pin. When she found out she couldn't vote for Bernie unless she switched she filled out the form on the spot.

I did have one little girl ask me where the Hillary table was while we were tabling and handing out flyers at another event. I really felt bad for her as I told her I had never seen one.

[auntpurl]

13. It does sound like you are in quite a liberal area.

I suppose we'll have to wait and see. One of the stories of this primary is a lot of anecdotal evidence of strong support for Bernie but then lack of support at the voting booth. It happened in NY. But then again, it went the other way in Michigan, so who knows?

Either way, I do have to agree with the poster above who said it was unlikely Bernie will win by the landslide he'll need to achieve a majority of pledged delegates. Oregon will be a blowout for Bernie, I expect. Not so sure about CA.

Thanks for sharing your experiences.

[OilemFirchen]

46. "This one time, at a Green Party sponsored vegan fest..."

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

23. 2 Hillary bumper stickers?... surprised there are THAT many!

Go Berrrnnniiiieeeee!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[Live and Learn]

24. Me too. ROFL nt

[Lizzie Poppet]

32. Honest answer:

A few reasons:

* The polling has gotten close there...and there are good reasons to believe the polling methodologies ("likely voters" doesn't include newer registrations, of which there have been a ton) significantly under-count Bernie voters.

* Open primary, and Bernie utterly dominates independents.

* Moreover, the GOP nomination is a done deal, so some Reps may well choose to vote in the Dem race...I think they'd favor Bernie, although that's admittedly just speculation on my part.

* Black voters in California, while likely still voting in larger numbers for Hillary, are not generally as conservative as those in the South, so she'll win that demographic by a smaller margin. I also think the Latino vote is entirely up for grabs there...and they're a much larger group than blacks in that state. The largest group, in fact...

* The trendline showing Bernie gaining is steep and consistent.

Will there be enough time for all of this to result in the huge win Bernie needs? Frankly, I rather doubt it...but I'm holding out hope. For once, a presidential election really, really matters.

[grahamhgreen]

44. When Cali realizes that we can finally be relevant in a primary AND get everyone healthcare and

College, as well as the rest of the progressive agenda....


We just gonna do it for ya!

[Adrahil]

9. Have you even Looked at what it will take?

Here's a ridiculously optimistic projection:

http://DemRace.com/?share=xcyrBxgI

I show Sanders winning every race from here on out by at least 10 points, and many by 40 points. I show him winning california by 20 points (he's behind right now). I even show him winning contests like NJ and DC by 10 points that Clinton will almost assuredly win. Guess what? He still Loses. I think a lot of you folks just have no idea how far behind he really is now.

[Live and Learn]

11. You really don't get it. Even if you 'win', you lose. This is not a game and we will not quit.

We insist on a sustainable environment and economic and social justice. Bernie gets it, which is why we support him. Apparently you don't, but you will have to accept it in the near future.

[Adrahil]

12. So show what you think his path is.

The reality is that Clinton will be the nominee, and we must defeat Trump.

I keep seeing these "Bernie will win!" Posts and they are just delusional.

The bullshit in here is rising above eye level.

[Live and Learn]

14. I think this country is in big trouble if he doesn't win the nomination and tfhe majority of voters

don't like the GE choices which is what the polls show.

People are getting desperate and real revolution isn't the least bit pretty.

[Adrahil]

15. What you think the consequences of nominating her are is irrelevant...

To the actuality of it happening.

And if you think an actual, violent revolution is coming, you ar even more delusional.

You folks have managed to whip yourselves up intoma ridiculous frenzy about her.

You don't like her. I get it. But she won. Now we have Trump to deal with.

[Live and Learn]

16. Really? So I am irrelevant now? Disenfranchised even?

Once, I might have been surprised to hear that on DU. No longer, sorry to say.

Do you not see your part in all of this? You are one of the ones forcing change.

[Adrahil]

17. Stop making shit up.

I said your opinion about her was irrelevent to the actual likelihood of her getting the nomination. And it is. That's just reality. Opinions are not the same as facts. So stop making shit up.

And you are not disenfranchised. Vote for whoever you want. But the Democrqtic nominee will be Clinton.

[Live and Learn]

18. Democratic? You have really taken Third Way to a new level.

As to your calling my opinion irrelevant and claiming I make 'shit' up without any proof that I do, I can only say that you shouldn't be surprised when the 'chit' really hits the fan, since I already warned you.

[Adrahil]

37. You put words in my mouth. I didn't say what you claimed I did.

And your opinion is irrelevant when it contradicts the facts. Just like people's opinion of evolution or climate change doesn;t change the reality of those.

And yeah, I'll wait for the pitchforks and torches. Any day now, amiright?

[GulfCoast66]

47. You are more patient than I.

I actually supported Bernie but the die is cast and Hillary will be our candidate. However his hard core supporters either refuse to believe facts or throw a fit and declare they would rather have the country go up in flames than support anyone not named Bernie.

I think we are now seeing the result of a generation that has never been allowed to lose at anything supporting a losing candidate. The older ones supported President Obama and he won both times. But now their candidate had lost and rather than sucking it up and doing the smart thing they are out of control.

By no means am I referring to a majority of Bernie supports but enough to define his movement.

[Corporate666]

41. LOL

People think a small minority of voters will create "real revolution".

LOL!

No, it's a vocal minority of people who want free shit.

The rest of people work, have jobs, and want realistic progress. They realize Bernie is a pandering old fool that has never been successful in life before he latched onto the government teat and he doesn't understand anything about hard work, investment, saving, business, economics or anything else. He thinks money is something that grows on trees and he is promising to take it and give it to the people who just want something for nothing.

The vast majority of this country understand that his economic plans would lead to economic collapse. That's why he is losing.

His revolution will go about as well as OWS. It's over. He's done.

What will happen is that he will stubbornly refuse to admit he's beaten, and at the convention he will get up and he will support Hillary. He will fade back into the obscurity he came from, and the people who are championing his revolution will grow up, get jobs, start to understand how things really work, and will look back at how young and naive they were and be embarrassed when people remind them they were "virulent" Sanders supporters in the 2016 election.

[pdsimdars]

19. Hope you're a prophet . . . .

[Starry Messenger]

20. Nope.

[B Calm]

25. K&R Spot On!

[JonathanRackham]

26. Until the convention any delagate can change their mind.

At this point super delagates are promised but not locked and cast. Beware Hillary minions, all are political promises until 5 minutes after the convention.

[Demsrule86]

34. No way they overturn the popular vote or more importantly

delegate county...he is done.

[SidDithers]

27. No, he won't...nt

Sid

[Lucinda]

28. He really won't. n/t

[Zynx]

29. Even if he wins by 20% that doesn't get the job done.

He won't win by 20%. The demographics in California aren't all that favorable to Bernie.

[Orsino]

30. WE will win, with or without Sanders...

...if enough of us participate.

[kgnu_fan]

31. One by one... one by one...

[Demsrule86]

33. He has no shot

I look forward to it being over so I don't have to bother with him...totally dislike him now...I didn't used to.

[NurseJackie]

36. Is this just a comforting "positive affirmation," or ...

... when you assert that "Bernie will win," do you have any actual data that supports that?

I'm afraid things haven't been looking very good for him for quite some time. And even with Indiana's win, the percentages he needs to win by for the rest of the states has INCREASED. This means that it's become MORE DIFFICULT for him.

There just aren't enough delegates remaining to make a difference. Hillary is going to be our nominee.

[hrmjustin]

38. How are you going to erase a 300 pledge delegate lead?

[nolawarlock]

39. Bernie is not going to win ...

... no matter some might wish it were so.

[KingFlorez]

40. I think you really do not understand how well he needs to do there

To make up the gap, he'd have to do as well as he did in Vermont and keep Clinton below viability. There is no way that happens in such a large state.

[JTFrog]

42. #BERNIEMATH!!! #WINNING!!!

[hopemountain]

45. yes! in it to win it!

there is no alternative to the path of economic and social justice and getting america back on track for the working class.

[wyldwolf]

48. kick