Huge Amount of Oregon Registrations.

[bkkyosemite]

"A whopping 111,000 Oregonians gave themselves a say in the upcoming presidential primary by changing their voter registrations to Democrat or Republican.

That figure dwarfs registration change numbers during President Barack Obama’s 2008 primary campaign more than threefold.

The bulk of these voters — who previously weren’t registered with either party and wouldn’t have been able to cast a presidential ballot this month — made the switch in the weeks before the April 26 primary deadline, when excitement was building over the state’s potentially key role in deciding the nominees.
A whopping 111,000 Oregonians gave themselves a say in the upcoming presidential primary by changing their voter registrations to Democrat or Republican.

That figure dwarfs registration change numbers during President Barack Obama’s 2008 primary campaign more than threefold.

The bulk of these voters — who previously weren’t registered with either party and wouldn’t have been able to cast a presidential ballot this month — made the switch in the weeks before the April 26 primary deadline, when excitement was building over the state’s potentially key role in deciding the nominees."

[Gomez163]

1. Are we ever going to be done with these hyped stories??

BIG RALLIES BIG REGISTRATIONS. BIG CROWDS. BIG LINES AT THE POLLING PLACES.


THEN



Hillary still wins.

[JDPriestly]

2. Then Hillary wins among conservative, older Democrats.

That's not Oregon.

And we shall see in California.

[Gomez163]

4. I expect Bernie will win every primary until June 7

[Corporate666]

61. Unlikely

He's not looking good in Puerto Rico or Guam.

But there are 933 delegates left. Over 600 of them are just in CA and NJ.

So even if he wins every primary by capturing 2/3rds of the vote... that nets him less than half the delegates he needs to catch up with Clinton.

So where does he get the other 150+ he needs? He's going to lose NJ - he's down almost 30 points, and he's going to give up around 30 delegates there. So even if he wins *every* other state before the 7th with 2/3rds of the vote... he's still got to win CA with 72-73% of the vote.

How likely is that to happen?

It's highly unlikely he wins every state until June 7.

If he did, it's highly unlikely he wins most of them with 66%.

If he did, it's virtually impossible he wins ALL of them with 66%.

If he did, it's virtually impossible he can win CA with 72%.

If he did, it's virtually impossible he can contain losses in DC and NJ.



Yet every single one of these highly unlikely to virtually impossible things must happen for him to get a miniscule majority of pledged delegates.


And then he has to rely on ALLL of the super delegates switching from HRC to BS.


It's a series of events so improbable as to be, in practical terms, impossible.

[still_one]

77. He is going to do well in most of them. Not sure about Kentucky. Junes 7th will be a mixed bag,

and I essentially agree with your June 7th assessment, I think it is right on

Super Delegates will go with the person who has the most pledged delegates, and that looks like it will be Hillary

[KingFlorez]

11. Sanders wins among conservatives

Once again, look at county maps and you will see his best performances are almost always in the most conservative counties.

[JDPriestly]

15. Among the liberal, frustrated Democrats in those counties, the people who are sick of

the failure of the DNC established candidates to respond to the real issues of our time like the environment.

In the South, you have a very different mentality among Democratic voters than you do in the North. In the South, a large majority of Democratic voters (by no means all of them) are focused on social issues like race. In the North, they are often focused on other issues like public education and economics, especially trade and the export of jobs.

So to be a Democrat in a conservative county in the North means something very different from being a Democrat in a conservative county in Mississippi.

[KingFlorez]

20. I think not

Sanders lost the very liberal vote across the south, yet performed best in some extremely conservative areas, so that does not correctly align with your logic.

[bkkyosemite]

30. There are very liberal spots in Oregon. The top of the state and the bottom of the state.

In between is a much smaller population. The Trumpsters live there.

[Warren DeMontague]

64. The whole I-5 corridor is pretty blue, actually

The eastern part of the state is pretty red, and the eastern part of the state is also pretty empty.

[bkkyosemite]

88. That's true but some of the lil towns are red for trump my cousin lives in one

starts with an R ends with an e.

[Bluenorthwest]

43. Hillary won the States that are passing anti LGBT laws while Oregon is passing protections

Bernie will win Oregon. You want to call NC liberal then you define liberal as including nasty bigotry. 12 Hillary endorsing North Carolina Democrats voted for that hateful law. So what specifically are you on about?

[KingFlorez]

45. Sanders won a lot of conservative Appalachian counties

Sanders has won a lot of conservadem protest vote all over the place. Oklahoma is the best example.

[Warren DeMontague]

63. Dude, have you even ever BEEN to Oregon?

Honest answer.

[KingFlorez]

66. No, I have not

But if the other closed primaries are any indication, Clinton has won all of them. Sanders doesn't do well in closed primaries.

[Warren DeMontague]

67. Yeah, okay, well thanks for your expert analysis.

I dont ask priests for sex advice, either.

[KingFlorez]

68. Let's wait for the results. I won't argue on and on about it.

[bkkyosemite]

89. In my small Oregon town in S. Oregon the election office about 3 months ago started

to get 5,000 a week in new registrations...and he says it's only the two of us...and I said I know but Bernie is big news....he didn't say anything...red county but Obama won by 7 votes here.

[floppyboo]

69. Kansas does not help your point KingFlorez (closed caucus - Sanders +35.4)

[Aerows]

78. I'm very liberal and live in the South.

He didn't lose my vote.

[Aerows]

79. Get over it.

Sanders is forging ahead, is not dropping out, and you have absolutely no reason to be "concerned" if you are confident of a Clinton win.

You see, the primary isn't over yet. I know it is frustrating as hell that he won yet another state, because Clinton supporters are desperate for her to engage in GE mode because the clear Republican nominee is Donald Trump and he doesn't need to debate other Republicans anymore.

Accept that a significant portion of Democratic voters don't like her nearly as well as Republican voters like Trump.

One might ask why Democratic voters aren't overwhelmingly in favor of her if one took the opportunity to consider the question seriously.

[bkkyosemite]

3. NO! We are not!

[Nanjeanne]

7. Why do you care? Hillary has it in the bag as we have been repeatedly told.

[Warren DeMontague]

8. Shall we place bets on who wins the Oregon primary, chuckles?

[cali]

9. Bothers you that Bernie keeps winning. Good.

[Gomez163]

12. No. What bothers me is the gormless hype.

[cali]

21. Points for using gormless

And sorry, it's clear that Bernie continuing to win primaries, sits poorly with you. Love it.

[Gomez163]

23. Its like having to wait until the other guy finishes talking before you can say game over.

We all know on June 7, this thing is done for Bernie but he wants to ride it out until then. It will still end badly for him. I guess people want a big show.

[Shadowflash]

31. I know, right?

Silly people thinking that they can vote. Pfft!

They just need to anoint HRC now because we all know it's inevitable. Who cares what another few million voters think?

[Gomez163]

35. We should save money for the fall. Bernie is toast.

[KingFlorez]

13. Considering that Oregon is closed, we might see a surprising result

Clinton cannot be counted out in a closed primary.

[JDPriestly]

16. Have you ever been to Oregon?

I have. No way Hillary is going to win in that state. No way.

[KingFlorez]

22. When Democrats vote, Clinton wins

Don't count those chickens yet.

[headonshoulder]

26. Uh-huh.

Not in Oregon.

[Warren DeMontague]

59. ...

A classic.

[Warren DeMontague]

58. And how has she done in the states that have legalized recreational marijuana?

Wait, states have done what? Has anyone told debbie wasserman schultz? This is an OUTRAGE!

[Warren DeMontague]

65. Okay, so no, you've never actually been to Oregon.

You're missing out.

[a kennedy]

28. Thank you for saying this......have had my Feel the Bern bumper sticker on my car for ever.....

Hope He can at least give it a go to the convention.....Feel The Bern.

[LWolf]

71. I live here.

While I'm not predicting state-wide results, I know where my vote is going.

[MFM008]

72. She will in the GE

And that's what matters.

[Adrahil]

86. I agree, but.....

I'm not convinced it's going to be the 30 point blow-out he needs either.

[bkkyosemite]

32. So do you live in Oregon or are you a Hillary insider that's in the know because I live here.

[Warren DeMontague]

62. Sanders is going to clean up here.

I'm pretty sure of it.

[Gomez163]

51. Oregon is chock full of the Bern

[Gomez163]

53. How can I make sure I keep getting that bad idea t shirt girl. I love her

[Warren DeMontague]

56. Im guessing you dont live here.

[Warren DeMontague]

60. Im gonna bookmark this post, Your highness

See you on the 17th.

[ljm2002]

40. You're slipping...

...took you 2 minutes to respond negatively. But you did get in first, so there's that.

As to your "point": yes, it is news that so many people registered a party affiliation before their primary. It is, according to the article, unprecedented, even when compared with the historic 2008 election.

So sad that you just don't want to hear about it.

And it will be interesting to see who wins Oregon, eh? I'm sure you will be the first to issue an "I was wrong" post when / if Bernie wins big there, yes?

[scscholar]

57. But those numbers are suspicious

They're way outside the range of what is accepted as normal. There have been so much election fraud this year that it isn't hard to believe that this isn't either.

[Agschmid]

5. The thousands of independents who wanted to effect the Republicans election are now SOL.

It sucks.

[Warren DeMontague]

6. "Oregon? Never heard of it"

Dont they all live in shacks, or something? No one who matters lives out there.

[rhett o rick]

29. I think they are happy with that idea being out there. Portland is a very

progressive city. They have light rail and a trolley system. Oregon beaches are the best, but don't tell anyone I told you.

[Fairgo]

39. They were the first to put a bird on it

gluten free to boot!

[rhett o rick]

41. Sorry, but on what? nm

[Fairgo]

42. On everything!

It's Portlandia, home of the free thinkers.

[Warren DeMontague]

49. Yeah, I think I was vaguely aware of that

you know, living here and all.

[rhett o rick]

91. I was raised in SE, went to John Marshall HS and PSU.

[Warren DeMontague]

92. The guy upthread who is convinced Hillary's gonna win OR

"well, no, I've never actually been there"


Or the Manhattan HRC campaign flack who referred to "Senator Jeff Berkeley"

...you can't make this shit up.

[rhett o rick]

93. Some people have slid into total delusionville.

[bkkyosemite]

34. ...

[Warren DeMontague]

50. Like the guy who thought our Senator's name was "Jeff Berkeley"

you can't make this shit up.

[PowerToThePeople]

75. The west coast

should just give the bird to the rest of this fucked up land mass.

[Tarc]

10. Well that's a good showing, but, we're kinda transitioning out of primary mode

[Warren DeMontague]

14. And yet, You're still posting in GD-Primaries

Maybe you got lost?

[Tarc]

24. Just biding my time til the final curtain call

That does bring to mind a good tune, though.

[Warren DeMontague]

48. Which reminds me, is Frampton still coming alive? You guys seem like the right crowd to ask.

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/michael-stipe-bernie-sanders-appeal-and-honesty-are-perfect-for-now-20160225

Like all the cranky posts a couple months ago: "Michael Stipe? Who's that? Never heard of him"

[Tarc]

84. I'm more of a 90s grunge/punk kind of guy

Just with a soft spot for my Boston bands, so J. Giels, Aerosmith, and the Bosstones still remain on the ipod.

[Warren DeMontague]

85. Well thank God. The not knowing who Stipe is, was a bit appalling.

And it wasnt coming from the "spotify playlist full of edm tracks" direction, it was coming from the "cracked jewel cases full of neil diamond CDs" one.


Me, I'm a Deadhead who is all over the map, musically.

It's entirely possible that J. Giels was one of the first LPs I bought with my own money. Either that or Cheap Trick. The era would be about right. So ...nothing against the man or his band, personally.

I wonder who will land the coveted Gibby Haynes endorsement.

[bkkyosemite]

36. You might be but millions are not.

[XemaSab]

17. yuuuuuuuuuuge

n/t

[litlbilly]

18. You can count my wife and myself in that category:) Our first primary vote ever:)

[bkkyosemite]

19. Great I mailed mine in already and will check with my election's office to see that they got it.

[litlbilly]

25. didnt know you could do that. thanks for that info, ill do the same. Mailed them monday

[bkkyosemite]

37. I'm in a small town.

[litlbilly]

44. Im in Beaverton so not that small. Im sure they got them and sure theyll be counted

[bkkyosemite]

90. Your 89,000 I'm 74,000 Medford.

[litlbilly]

94. pretty close:)

[a kennedy]

33. Love you and your wife......thanks for being a part of this process.....

and......you ARE voting for Bernie right?? Don't matter.....just thanks for being a part of the process.

[bkkyosemite]

38. Of course Bernie...

[a kennedy]

54. *smooch*

[litlbilly]

47. already voted for Bernie:)

[a kennedy]

55. *smooch*

[neverforget]

70. We voted for Bernie as soon as we received our ballot.

Congrats on your first primary vote!!

[Lizzie Poppet]

82. Likewise!

Well, except for the wife part!

Not quite my first primary...but first in many, many years: re-registered specifically so I could vote for Bernie.

[MineralMan]

27. Looks like you pasted that twice.

It's good to read what you post before clicking the post button.

I got it all halfway through the post.

[Bluenorthwest]

46. It's fun that you feel compelled to say that sort of thing when you usually present yourself

as being Mr GOTV. This is an OP all about new voters signing up in droves and you talk about a posting error because you know it benefits Bernie.
That's so fun.

[coffeeAM]

52. Bernie is a blowout, 20 plus point win.

[floppyboo]

73. I'll raise you 12! Go Bernie! West Coast LOVES you, and our oceans, and forests, and fresh water and

and pedestrian cities, and cyclists, and weed, and rainbows and unicorns. You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...

[Blue_In_AK]

74. The West IS the best.

- Jim Morrison.

[hrmjustin]

76. I hope they enjoy voting.

[Demsrule86]

80. So exciting.

I wonder how many are Republicans.

[litlbilly]

81. wow, 80 replys and I can only see 15 of them. Wow the Hillerites must be posting here like crazy.

I sure do love that ignore button.

[Lizzie Poppet]

83. 24 for me.

And yeah...they must be flipping their shit. Again.

Good times...

[workinclasszero]

87. And Hillary will still be the democratic nominee