Campaign Mystery: Why Don't Bernie Sanders' Big Rallies Lead To Big Wins?
Since last summer, when Sanders' huge rallies got him noticed by the national media, there's been a lot of discussion of an "enthusiasm gap" between Sanders and Clinton.
But in a recent Gallup poll, it was Clinton, not Sanders, who had the lead in enthusiasm among supporters. Fifty-four percent of Clinton supporters said they were "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, compared to 44 percent of Sanders' supporters.
It may be Clinton supporters are just less vocal, less likely to spend hours on social media praising their candidate or to show up at a concert-style rally (Clinton's campaign has also shied away from planning large events).
If big crowds meant big wins at the polls, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and former Texas Rep. Ron Paul would both be president. But election after election, crowd size has been an unreliable predictor of winning.
"The people at the rally are not a random or representative sample of the electorate," says Lynn Vavreck, a professor of political science and communication studies at University of California, Los Angeles. "These are strategic and well-planned events. This isn't just happening."
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/26/475681237/campaign-mystery-why-dont-bernie-sanders-big-rallies-lead-to-big-wins
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Gabriel Debenedetti
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The sites of Sanders' three closing mega-rallies all went to Clinton (blue).
2:12 AM - 20 Apr 2016
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Mahalo, RandySF
