Votamatic Obama 336 EV Romney 202 EV

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Drew Linzer is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and a 2012-13 Visiting Assistant Professor at the Stanford University Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He received a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA in 2008. Between 1998 and 2005, Dr. Linzer worked for polling firms in Washington, DC, Santa Monica, CA, and Palo Alto, CA. His research has appeared in the American Political Science Review, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Political Analysis, Journal of Politics, World Politics, Social Science & Medicine, and the Journal of Statistical Software.

http://votamatic.org/about-me/

[littlemissmartypants]

1. Kick

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Dr. Linzer Teaches At Emory

That's good enough for me.

[courseofhistory]

3. Good! n/t

[regnaD kciN]

4. SC and Alabama as only leaning R???

Sorry, I don't buy it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Don't See That

http://votamatic.org/forecast-detail-2/


And his model is based on peer reviewed research:

http://userwww.service.emory.edu/~dlinzer/Linzer-prespoll-May12.pdf

[Maximumnegro]

6. Check out his tweet about landline only polls

and the weighting. Sheesh.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. All The Aggregators Are Coming To Roughly The Same Conclusions

Princeton Consortium
538
Votamatic
election analytics


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As to cell phones:

"...national polls that sampled both landline and cell phones measured national Congressional vote preference more accurately than those that sampled only landline phones..."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/how-did-the-polls-do_n_778216.html