Greg Sargent:State polling averages support Obama camp’s view of the race
This presidential race remains a national dead heat, and Mitt Romney could still very well become our next president. But right at this moment, it needs to be reiterated that the state polling averages support the Obama campaign’s view of the state of the race — that Obama is currently on track to victory — and don’t support the Romney campaign’s view of the state of the race.
Here’s David Axelrod, giving Sam Stein his take on Romney’s post debate surge, and arguing that any Romney momentum has since stalled, leaving Obama with a lead in the electoral college:
“Governor Romney profited from that first debate primarily by recouping those voters who he had lost in his dismal month of September when they had such an uninspired convention and when the 47 percent tape came out,” Axelrod continued. “But that is all that happened. We’ve had two debates since. I haven’t seen — in the things that I have looked at — I haven’t seen momentum since that time. I think the race has settled in, and it has settled in with us with a small but durable and discernible lead in these battleground states both in the aggregate and individually. The question is how does he change that dynamic now? There is no big intervening event.”
(snip)
For the sake of argument, let’s give the tied states to Romney. Here’s the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire — he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/state-polling-averages-support-obama-camps-view-of-the-race/2012/10/27/476932f6-204a-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_blog.html
