Initial exit poll data favors Hillary..

[DCBob]

31% very liberal
27% moderate
16% < 30
21% Black

48% want to continue Obama policies
36% want policies more liberal than Obama’s

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/19/1517590/-early-data-from-Dem-exit-polls

================

My estimate based on those numbers..

48% want continue Obama policies (voted Hillary)
36% want policies more liberal than Obama’s (voted Bernie)

Split the remaining 16% which results in 56-44.

Hilary wins big!

[CrowCityDem]

1. I can't extrapolate, but the numbers sure aren't pointing to an upset.

[DCBob]

5. Indeed.

[jfern]

2. Bernie does better upstate, and they couldn't vote in the morning, so have to wait until after work.

[geek tragedy]

3. numbers resemble Illinois, and Texas

Hard to glean anything from them, but pundits seem to think she did pretty well.

Important note: upstate not really included in first wave, so that will skew things

[DCBob]

7. Right.. good point.

[uponit7771]

4. 60% find Clinton trustworthy and honest.... from MSNBC 4:30 Central Time

[geek tragedy]

8. what percent for Sanders? nt

[NWCorona]

13. 83%

[jmg257]

17. 83% I think...

[geek tragedy]

19. that's an encouraging number for him nt

[jmg257]

27. Not too bad for sure. but I'm with the OP - not sure why, but not feeling it'll go too well for him.

Too many little things adding up, maybe(?)

hey - Lets Go Rangers!

[Adrahil]

32. Maybe, maybe not.

I think he trustworthy and honest (though he has tested that belief this week), but not way would I vote for him in the primaries.

[geek tragedy]

34. two numbers that are really bad for Sanders

1) more say would not vote for Sanders (18%) than Clinton (13%) in general. We know how Sanders supporters feel about Clinton, so that implies how many of each there are.

2) More see her as inspirational. That's a huge reversal.

[DCBob]

9. Nice.. I didnt see that one.

That would suggest most of those would vote for Hillary.

[geek tragedy]

14. 83% say Sanders is trustworthy--that's very similar to Wisconsin nt

[DCBob]

21. Yep.. good numbers for Bernie.

But I would think if any voter that thinks Hillary is trustworthy would likely vote for her... all things considered.

[NWCorona]

10. 64% think Wall Street hurt economy more than it helps

[geek tragedy]

12. 83% say Sanders is trustworthy. That's trouble for Clinton nt

[uponit7771]

15. True, she's had millions of tax payer dollars spent to pull her poling numbers down

[geek tragedy]

26. more see her as inspirational though--that helps nt

[uponit7771]

29. Yes, I agree... I've gone from luke warm to excited about her seeing she's been so practical

... and low level drama from her.

From Trump and Sanders we'd not know what to expect

[geek tragedy]

33. and to have two presidents back to back who are always

the smartest person in the room.

We've never had that.

[uponit7771]

35. +1

[Fawke Em]

50. She won't be president.

And I don't want smart if it's coupled with unscrupulous.

[geek tragedy]

53. you'll have to change your tune on her being president

in 49 days or so

[NWCorona]

6. Thanks for the link!

I think is going to be close. Especially with those numbers!

[DCBob]

11. Welcome!

[NWCorona]

63. Congratulations on the big win tonight!

It could have been worse but still pretty bad.

It is what it is.

[geek tragedy]

16. OTOH: 13% would not vote for Clinton, 18% would not vote for Sanders nt

[CoffeeCat]

18. Where are these exit polls from? Plus, many people wll vote after they get off work

I'd rather look at exit-poll data from later this evening.

Would like to know where the data is coming from. All over or in one area?

[DCBob]

24. I dont know.

Someone up thread said the early ones might skew to Hillary and later ones better for Bernie. We shall see.

[CoffeeCat]

36. Or young people who go for Bernie

could have more flexibility during the day, such as college students and those working atypical schedules. I could see some Bernie supporters being more available during the day.

One could make a case either way.

[Armstead]

20. How does "very liberal" favor Clinton?

Well okay, pro-choice...but who else is pro-choice?

And neo-liberal on economics is more Clinton's speed.

Yeah, she'll win....but that's analysis is stretching a bit.

[DCBob]

22. I was looking more at the "Obama policies" numbers.

[Armstead]

37. Heck I support that too...just not all of them

So I'd probably fall into the "more liberal than Obama" category...which isn't chump change.

And I think if it were broken down by issues, I suspect they would not like to see his positions on trade (TPP) extended, and would like to see healthcare expanded.

But just guessing.....I'm soon to turn off the TV and leave it off until later when things have been decided. I hate watching early sections of election night.

[DCBob]

41. So you would have answered yes to that question?

want continue Obama policies?

[Armstead]

43. I'd be in the "more liberal than".....but I'm a junkie about this stuff

I see Bernie as both an extension of Obama's policies and more liberal than.

But if I didn't have certain hot button issues, I'd say Obama is fine.

(And I sorta wish he could have a third term more like his attitude in the second term -- without that pesky trade thing)

[DCBob]

44. Yeah, I would have preferred an Obama third term.

But that was not an option.

[LisaM]

48. I think it's possible to continue Obama's policies

and want to make them more liberal.

[DCBob]

51. Yes, that is exactly how I feel.

And I support Hillary.

[LisaM]

60. So do I.

I thought in 2008 that she actually leaned a little to the left of him.

[DCBob]

61. Yes. I think so too.

I also think Hillary will govern more liberal than she campaigns.

[apcalc]

31. I would answer very liberal

And I'm for Clinton.

[Armstead]

40. On economic issues?

Well that's not fair of me...I guess this week Clinton is sounding more liberal on select issues.

[workinclasszero]

23. Nice!

Thanks for the analysis

[geek tragedy]

25. Clinton seen as more inspirational and more likely to defeat Donald Trump

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38487802

[Vinca]

46. Were they polling inebriated people?

[beedle]

28. MSNBC was warning

that early exist polls would be coming out of NYC and would likely favor Clinton early ... which, if they are, is only slightly, which is good for Bernie if this is the case.

[DCBob]

30. Yes, that is probably true.

We shall see.

[CoffeeCat]

38. Exit polling: 4 out of 10 want the Democratic party to move more to the left

According to Bill Press speaking on CNN right now.

[DCBob]

39. Right but that means 60% dont.

[CoffeeCat]

42. Yep. Just reporting what he said

I'm not sure how the question was structured and what the choice of answers were.

[geek tragedy]

45. 50% think international trade creates jobs nt

[DCBob]

47. Interesting.

For sure those are all Hillary voters.

[MoonRiver]

49. CNN poll watcher said they are seeing many more voters for Hillary!

[DCBob]

52. Yeah, I just heard that too.

[CoffeeCat]

54. CNN exit polling: 31 percent very liberal; 38 percent somewhat liberal (nt) (edited numbers)

[DCBob]

56. Many of us Hillary supporters think we are very liberal.

I know you and other Bernie supporters might not think so.

[CoffeeCat]

58. I just edited my numbers

It's 31 VERY liberal, 38 somewhat liberal.

The very liberal is telltale Bernie and has been throughout the campaign.

I think 31 is a solid number for Bernie, could be better though.

[Tiggeroshii]

59. and many Bernie supporters are not very liberal, ironically

[amborin]

55. LOL! i remember driving from Las Vegas in 2004, thinking Kerry was winning; NOT!

eta: was canvassing there

[DCBob]

57. Yeah. I know. For sure exit polling is not a good indication of final results.

[democrattotheend]

62. I'm a Bernie supporter, but I have to agree

I am not optimistic based on these numbers.