2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNBC/WSJ/Marist - CO: Obama 48, Romney 48 (LVs, 10/23-24, +/- 2.9%) NV: Obama 50, Romney 47 (LVs, 10/
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)LisaL
(44,962 posts)Hopefully Gary Johnson is doing well in there.
Why aren't they including him in polls?
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Remember Obama has a ground game that is focused on new voters and registered. Only 12 days left. Romney has no path to 270. He cannot defeat the math.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)CO does not surprise me. It will be close there. Repubs have the registration edge there but it will come down to turnout. 4 points with PPP and this being a tie looks like CO is definitely in play. CO and VA would be the states that would be nice as buffers.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Still I hope we win it.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)If we could get Obama up to 67-68% with Latinos in CO he would win the state for sure.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)<...>
A month ago, Obama led with independents 50 to 39 percent, an advantage which has shrunk to a virtual draw, 46 to 45 percent. Among women, the president led in September by a whopping 14 points, 54 to 40 percent, a lead that has been halved to 7 percent (52 to 45 percent).
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/25/14701395-polls-obama-romney-tied-in-co-incumbent-has-narrow-nev-edge
That's a huge drop among women.
fugop
(1,828 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Obama and Romney are tied at 48 percent among likely voters in Colorado, according to the new NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Marist polls conducted this week, entirely after the third and final presidential debate. Among the broader sample of registered voters, Obama holds a 48 to 47 percent lead over Romney.
ncav53
(168 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)Great NV numbers. I'll take CO's numbers too.
Cobalt Violet
(9,905 posts)Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)makes me want to blue-shift it about 3 points.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)NBC's LV model is flawed. If you didn't vote in 2010 you don't get counted as likely nor if you don't register at least 9/10 interested in the race.
I think a lot of folks are dropping off their screen.
Their polls are pretty good otherwise.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)NV seems very much a lock at this point. I know CO is not needed but it would be nice to have. Does CO have a big Latino community? I know NV does. CO has more registered Repubs then Dems.