Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,704 posts)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:20 PM Oct 2012

Republicans Need A Cold Shower, Barack Obama Is Still The Favorite

In recent days, the vibe emanating from Mitt Romney’s campaign has grown downright giddy. Despite a lack of any evident positive momentum over the last week — indeed, in the face of a slight decline from its post-Denver high — the Romney camp is suddenly bursting with talk that it will not only win but win handily. (“We’re going to win,” said one of the former Massachusetts governor’s closest advisers. “Seriously, 305 electoral votes.”)

This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

...


Karl Rove employed exactly this strategy in 2000. As we now know, the race was excruciatingly close, and Al Gore won the national vote by half a percentage point. But at the time, Bush projected a jaunty air of confidence. Rove publicly predicted Bush would win 320 electoral votes. Bush even spent the final days stumping in California, supposedly because he was so sure of victory he wanted an icing-on-the-cake win in a deep blue state. Campaign reporters generally fell for Bush’s spin, portraying him as riding the winds of momentum and likewise presenting Al Gore as desperate.

The current landscape is slightly different. The race is also very close, but Obama enjoys a clear electoral college lead. He is ahead by at least a couple points in enough states to make him president. Adding to his base of uncontested states, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin would give Obama 271 electoral votes. According to the current polling averages compiled at fivethirtyeight.com, Obama leads Nevada by 3.5 percent, Ohio by 2.9 percent, and Wisconsin by 4 percent. Should any of those fail, Virginia and Colorado are nearly dead even. (Obama leads by 0.7 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively.) If you don’t want to rely on Nate Silver — and you should rely on him! — the polling averages at realclearpolitics, the conservative-leaning site, don’t differ much, either.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Republicans Need A Cold Shower, Barack Obama Is Still The Favorite (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP
We need to remember that number 305 Politicalboi Oct 2012 #1
Maybe They Pulled The 305 Out Of Their Asses But It Is A Famous Area Code DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #2
305 is probably FL, NC, VA, OH, IA, WI, NV (301) plus the 2 each from NE and ME n/t Blaukraut Oct 2012 #3
I Remember Like It Was Yesterday DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #5
This message was self-deleted by its author LiberalElite Oct 2012 #4
If they're broadcasting it now LiberalElite Oct 2012 #6
Are they setting us up for the big steal? GetTheRightVote Oct 2012 #7
Boy I wish this was over, I am going to stop watching all doc03 Oct 2012 #8
No resting here until 11/06/12 ffr Oct 2012 #9
 

Politicalboi

(15,189 posts)
1. We need to remember that number 305
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:26 PM
Oct 2012

Because on the night of Nov 6th if that is Rmoney total, we will know it was rigged. And they will do it with that number, and not feel any guilt whatsoever. And dare anyone to prove fraud.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,704 posts)
5. I Remember Like It Was Yesterday
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:41 PM
Oct 2012

KKK Rove going on CNN and saying out of the last twenty published national polls, seventeen show George Bush ahead. I didn't know who was going to win with any great degree of certainty but I knew it was going to be close.

Florida was a mess. What people forget that beside the mess in Palm Beach County there were thousands of spoiled ballots in heavily African Americans in Duval County.

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #2)

LiberalElite

(14,691 posts)
6. If they're broadcasting it now
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:41 PM
Oct 2012

wouldn't that be a start in proving fraud? Or will they claim coincidence and expect us to swallow it?

GetTheRightVote

(5,287 posts)
7. Are they setting us up for the big steal?
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:49 PM
Oct 2012

This does not sound good to me when it point to O being way ahead at this time.

doc03

(35,148 posts)
8. Boy I wish this was over, I am going to stop watching all
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:54 PM
Oct 2012

political shows. This morning I turn on Morning Joe and it is all over for Obama, he is desperate.
I turn on Rachel and she is talking about each getting 269 and us ending up with Romney as President and Joe Biden a VP and even some scenario where Boner is President. I turn to Jenifer Grandholm and some dude is on there taking about Obama being down -14 with men and Romney only being down -8 with women. So according to him Obama is doing way worse with men and worse with women than in 2008. Even Current is now pushing the horse race crap, neck to neck crap. I think I will watch old movies for the next 13 days.

ffr

(22,644 posts)
9. No resting here until 11/06/12
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:55 PM
Oct 2012

until I've done everything I can to assure an Obama-Biden victory. Because if they win big, then there's a good chance their coattails will pull other Democrats in as well.

I'm almost to tears with how sick I am of Republican obstructionism.

Two weeks. Then we rest.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Republicans Need A Cold S...