It's ironic that giving super delegates 15% of the vote makes a contested convention more likely

[morningfog]

By giving approximately 714 party leaders and insiders a full delegate vote and including them when determining a delegate majority, the DNC makes it more likely that in a two-way race neither will reach a delegate majority through pledged delegates alone.

Only 85% of the delegate pool is available through the primary voting process. To win without reliance on super delegates a candidate would have to secure 50% plus 1 of the total delegates from that 85%. Said another way, a candidate would have to secure 58.8% of the pledged delegates to do it outright (using this year's numbers).

This gives the trailing candidate in a two-way race an incentive to stay in through the convention. As long as they prevent the the other from hitting the magic number (majority of all delegates), they cannot be mathematically eleminated until the super delegates vote.

Conventional thought is that enough supers will go to the pledged delegate winner. 2008 is cited as the present. But that was the first time this scenario arose under the modern primary/super delegate system. And the vote wasn't forced. Hillary conceded when Obama had secured the pledged delegate majority. And it is worth noting that Hillary still got 34% of the super delegate votes. 34% stuck with her AFTER she conceded.

Who knows what would have happened had she stayed in. This year, if Bernie does not secure the pledged delegate majority, but forces a floor vote, the supers will line up behind Hillary, almost without question.

But, should Bernie surpass Hillary in the pledged delegates, would they go to Bernie? Maybe so, maybe not.

Looking to future contests, it is not inconceivable that going the distance becomes the new norm of the primary process and we could see the super delegates play a larger role in the process. Or we could just do away with them.

[cantbeserious]

1. It Is Ironic That The DNC Is Less Democratic Than The RNC In This Matter

eom

[Stallion]

2. I've Been Pointing this Out for Awhile

Super Delegates are likely going to be necessary to get to the required 2300+. Too many people focus only on getting 50% of the Pledged Delegates-that's not nearly enough. You need several hundred more Super Delegates. Like them or not they likely will play a factor in this race

[Demsrule86]

9. First of all I doubt it

Secondly, super delegates will go with the candidate who won the most delegates-As they should and that will be Sen. Clinton. At the time of Hillary Clinton's suspending her campaign the first week of june 2008, the superdelegate count was 246½ for her, and 478 for Barack Obama, with 99 still uncommitted[1] of the 823½ total then existing. There was no contested convention and their won't be one this time...no matter how many delegates are threatened by Bernie supporters. Please note that Sen. Clinton at this time has a greater lead over Bernie Sanders than Obama ever did. Also, it looks like she will shut him down in New York.

[CoffeeCat]

3. The Republicans are laughing

about how unfair and rigged our process is.

You know you've got deep problems when the Republicans are chuckling at the unfairness in outer party. The assholes who stole the election for Bush are snickering at our crazy election process.

Thank you for the well-thought-out analysis.

[morningfog]

4. Morning kicky

[DanTex]

5. No worries, Clinton will have more pledges and more supers.

[Agschmid]

6. The supers should support whichever candidate has the PD lead.

They also should just be done away with but it's a bit late for that this go around.

[geek tragedy]

7. Sanders wants to keep his committee seniority in the Senate.

He won't go kamikaze.

[frustrated_lefty]

8. Something I've been pondering...

As a rule of thumb, nobody likes to be indebted. Horse-trading and being obligated to return "favors" is part of politics, but that doesn't mean anyone, even a politician, appreciates being under someone's thumb. This is Hillary's last hurrah regardless of the outcome of the election. If she wins, she's out of politics after the presidency. If she loses, she's never getting another shot. I have to wonder if any of the super-delegates are considering flipping simply to be free of any "debt" to Clinton. We already know she keeps lists of "friends" and "enemies" and presumably who owes her for what. With her out of politics, those lists become meaningless. Obviously, this is pure speculation, but it will be interesting to see how the super-delegates play out.

[Demsrule86]

10. And vote for Bernie ?

He stood by and thanked his surrogate who called Hillary and the entire Democratic elected whores...and his supporters are calling and threatening super delegates. Your hatred of Hillary as she is beating your candidate blinds you to the truth...we call that Clinton derangement syndrome here.

[winter is coming]

11. Purposes mistook fallen on the inventor's heads? n/t