Clinton stands at 90% chance to win NY, 91% chance to win nomination

[Godhumor]

Predictive markets aren't buying into the concept of momentum--they're buying into math and demographics.

http://predictwise.com/

[geek tragedy]

1. An attractive buy at 90% nt

[Godhumor]

3. Michigan pretty much assured there will be no more 95%+ numbers in the markets

Too many investors are buying cheap shares on Bernie in case he pulls off another upset. Hell, even Maryland is "only" at a 91% chance when that is a state where Bernie legitimately has a 1% or less chance of winning.

So 90% in the markets is about as close as it gets to a near certainty.

[geek tragedy]

10. I guess that 10% is model risk rather than measured risk then.

In other words, risk that the modeling is wrong.

[fighting-irish]

2. 99% chance of Predictwise of being wrong.

*nods to self*

[Godhumor]

5. You're already one of my favorite new posters

Such conviction!

[JonathanRackham]

4. Is she on her way to becoming a 1%?

[Lucinda]

6. KNR

[UMTerp01]

7. Pesky math again n/t

[Smarmie Doofus]

8. And 97% chance of starting a new war in the ME. n/t

[AgerolanAmerican]

12. better re-run your model

anything less than 100% indicates an error in the program

[closeupready]

9. lol, just like Michigan. :-D

[SoLeftIAmRight]

11. she is still going down

down down down

she only goes down

[thesquanderer]

13. 538 gives Clinton a 99% chance of winning NY.

I'd actually be pretty encouraged if Bernie had a 10% chance rather than a 1% chance!

[AgingAmerican]

14. She had a 99% chance of winning Michigan

And she lost

[artislife]

15. 99% not to win the GE. nt

[Ron Green]

16. "Predictive markets" are what it's come to in this country,

not so much things we really need to do as a nation.