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(96,555 posts)
Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:24 PM Apr 2016

Where do you live and what do you think will happen

As I wrote in another thread, politics here are complex, and Sanders isn't playing the game successfully.

11 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
I'm a New Yorker and CLINTON will win the NY Primary
1 (9%)
I'm a New Yorker and SANDERS will win the NY Primary
0 (0%)
I'm NOT a New Yorker and CLINTON will win the NY Primary
4 (36%)
I'm NOT a New Yorker and SANDERS will win the NY Primary
6 (55%)
Show usernames
Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies


(71,265 posts)
4. Btw Siena has it 52-42 but they have her winning the suburbs by 19 and the city by 12.
Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:29 PM
Apr 2016

Those numbers seem off.


geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
5. Interesting. I'm using the 2008 primary as the baseline.
Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:33 PM
Apr 2016

2008 was a better predictor for Wisconsin than the polls.

But an 8 point victory is still a back breaker for Sanders, so 10-14 is just fine.


(6,437 posts)
8. I'm guessing there is a certain amount of herding happening
Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:41 PM
Apr 2016

Easiest way to not deal with the complicated NY rules is to build off what other firms are doing.

I think Clinton by 10-20% is a reasonable range for outcomes.


geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
9. I have trouble seeing how he massively underperforms Obama
Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:48 PM
Apr 2016

with black voters but over performs Obama overall by 7-10 points nevertheless.

I also wonder if there are people who ID as registered Democrats but actually aren't.

In the 2008 primary about 10% of exit poll respondents ID'd as independents.

8% wouldn't surprise me. Neither would 21%.



(72,790 posts)
3. Not a NYER. I think Clinton will win.
Tue Apr 12, 2016, 11:28 PM
Apr 2016

But I do think the race will be closer than some predictions.
Take that for what it's worth. Lol I'm not good at the prediction game.

Ron Green

(9,828 posts)
12. 2016 is a big test for New Yorkers, as well as for all Americans,
Wed Apr 13, 2016, 02:07 AM
Apr 2016

and they may yet fail it. Putting a fearful trust in a fear-based system is an easy thing to do, but hard to live with - as we're learning every day.

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