538: 2016 Primary Forecasts...Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning New York primary 4/12/16

[workinclasszero]

UPDATED 5:02 PM EDT | APR 12, 2016

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning the New York primary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. Not over until it is over. But when it is

I say we all pull together and beat the bastards.

[anotherproletariat]

3. I couldn't agree more!! nt

[workinclasszero]

4. I'm voting for the democratic party nominee in the general

Whoever that may be.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

5. Even if the candidate isn't directly addressing your specific needs and all of them?

How patriotic of you.

[workinclasszero]

7. Who the hell else would I vote for?

A damn nazi like Trump?

A Canadian religious fanatic like Cruz?

Sitting at home or voting green/nader w/e equals voting republican and I'll be damned if I'm ever gonna do that!

[Jackie Wilson Said]

9. Exactly.

[Dem2]

2. So basically she has a 50/50 chance

Based on how well primaries have been forecast even a week out this cycle.

[reformist2]

6. 538 has already discredited themselves several times this year. Their opinion is worthless.

[workinclasszero]

10. They were wrong once in an open primary as were all the polls

NY will be an actual democratic only primary, no shenanigans allowed.

[oberliner]

13. They have actually been incredibly accurate this cycle

They have only really missed on one prediction so far.

[Barack_America]

8. I love when they frame it as the 99% against the 1%.

[beedle]

16. I was going to say 'ironic'

but I'm guessing it's really not since that seems to be Hillary's real agenda anyway .. and her supporters, if they give a shit at all at this point, would dump the 99% in second if she came right out and told them to.

[4139]

11. WOW! 99% chance is exactly what they gave Hillary to win Michigan!!!

[workinclasszero]

12. Open primary

equals republicans crossing over to give the most beatable democratic candidate a hand...Bernie.

That's not going to happen in New York!


You are comparing apples to oranges

[AgingAmerican]

18. Not enough of them crossed over for her, apparently

[cemaphonic]

20. Plus, no competitive Dem primary since 1992

so the likely voter models were shit. MI was a perfect storm of polling anomalies, not a sign that polls are always wrong.

[w4rma]

23. And Oklahoma. (nt)

[NWCorona]

14. So this seals it.

Bernie's going to win NY!

[workinclasszero]

15. Yawn...

[NWCorona]

19. That meme never gets old

[HumanityExperiment]

17. Downward trend for HRC...

Thx, good to see the upward trend for Bernie and downward for HRC, the gap is closing

[anotherproletariat]

21. Seems a bit optomistic, with a week remaining...but I'll take it! nt

[Betty Karlson]

22. Just like in Michigan? eom