Hillary owes her delegate lead to five states: Texas, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina.

[reformist2]

+72 from Texas
+68 from Florida
+44 from Georgia
+35 from Alabama
+25 from South Carolina

---------
+244 delegates

(Estimates taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016)

Make of it what you will. As for me, it doesn't seem like a great idea to nominate someone whose strongest states are states we can't win in November...

[msanthrope]

1. Yes.

The PLCAA vote stopped the NAACP lawsuit in its tracks. Some people don't forget.

[Arkansas Granny]

2. So what? the primaries are meant to determine the nominee, not the President.

Even the southern states get to make a choice in that matter.

[Cheese Sandwich]

20. They're trying to say that it's a signal of electability or ability to win a general election.

I don't want to put words in their mouth but that appears to be the intent.

The idea is a lot of people want to chose the strongest candidate for the general election.

[mcar]

27. Some Sanders supporters apparently believe

That only blue states should get to participate in the nominee selection process. That would, of course, knock out some of Bernie's wins too. So they restrict only red (and some blue and purple) states in the south.

See? It's all perfectly logical.

[MineralMan]

3. And a number of Bernie's victories are also in states

that will not go for the Democrat, either. We have 50 states. They all have Democrats in them. The primaries are for ALL democrats, not just the ones that support your favorite candidate, nor just the ones in states that always vote for the Democrat for President.

This is a very, very weak argument, and it is not even appropriate. We are a national party, not a selective state-by-state party. That's the fact. Every Democrat has a chance to participate in the selection of our party's nominee. That will not change, nor will it affect the results at the convention.

Sorry.

[reformist2]

6. We are a national party, but our presidential election process is not. We shouldn't ignore this.

You look at the classic battleground states, and Hillary does OK there, but not nearly as great as her delegate count would indicate.

[MineralMan]

19. You're incorrect about that. The nomination process is part

of our presidential election process. We include Democrats from all states, not just the ones who regularly vote for the Democratic President. In some years, in fact, those states have voted for Democrats. The Democratic Party does not discriminate, based on where people live. We are a national party.

You just don't like how things are turning out this year. That's irrelevant.

[Buzz Clik]

4. Instead, let's nominate someone who cannot win the primary.

[Jitter65]

35. LOL!! nt

[workinclasszero]

46. That's Bernie logic eh?

[timlot]

5. Texas Democrat here...

I live in Harris County (Houston) largest city in Texas which when for Obama in 2008 and 2012. We had a three term lesbian Mayor (Annise Parker) and just elected our 2nd AA Mayor (Syvester Turner). I can't help we have hundreds of small counties were all these Republican congregate.

[notadmblnd]

7. States she's guaranteed to lose in the General Election.

[notadmblnd]

15. Florida is a toss up. It can go either way.

So we'll give her one Southern state- maybe.

Happy now?

[LonePirate]

31. FL is not a toss-up this year. Either Dem will win it by 5+ points.

[Henhouse]

10. Not to mention that the reddest states have down ticket dems that need coattails...n/t

[KingFlorez]

11. Sanders failed to carry key swing states

Florida, Ohio and Virginia all voted for Clinton. If he can't win those in the primary, he'd definitely be guaranteed to lose them in the general election. At least by your logic.

[reformist2]

17. Those are the states we should be studying. How well would Hillary & Bernie do in the general there?

[IamMab]

12. Well we're certainly not going to nominate someone who can't win a majority of the Dem Primary vote.

Democrats are Democrats no matter what state they live in. Disrespecting strong Democrats isn't going to win your candidate any votes.

And by their own admission, the Sanders campaign "chose not to compete" in many of these states, so if you want to point fingers, aim one at Bernie. Both for agreeing to not compete in several large-delegate states AND for choosing such a dumb campaign staff that would advise him to do something stupid like not compete in several large-delegate states.

[tammywammy]

14. +1 good post n/t

[Jitter65]

36. Yoou are hurting heads here. No place for logic. nt

[itsrobert]

13. Ohio +19

and that's a swing state along with Florida +68

Texas and Florida, large Hispanic vote. That should continue into California.

[reformist2]

18. We need to look closely at how Hillary & Bernie are polling in general election matchups there.

[Zynx]

26. Bernie hasn't been the target of Republican smears yet.

I remember when Kerry, on paper, polled well against Bush before they had at him. Hillary has been subjected to smears for 24 years.

[AgerolanAmerican]

16. Sorry everyone

not my fault, I voted for Sanders

and all my usually-Democratic-voting neighbors voted Trump

with the way the media blacked out news on Sanders half of them didn't even realize he was more than a fringe candidate

[Hiraeth]

33. yep. same for me. things sure have changed a lot in the past few weeks.

[mythology]

21. So we can take away any delegates Sanders has won in red states too right?

So that's -14 from South Carolina, -9 from Alabama, -10 from Arkansas, -29 from Georgia, -21 from Oklahoma, -23 from Tennessee, -75 from Texas, -23 from Kansas, -14 from Louisiana, -15 from Nebraska, -4 from Mississippi, -73 from Florida, -35 from Missouri, -33 from Arizona, -18 from Idaho, -27 from Utah, -13 from Alaska, -7 from Wyoming.

That leaves Sanders with 651 pledged delegates. So that means 40% of Sanders delegates have come from states that are likely to go Republican in the general election.

Also does it seem like a great idea to nominate somebody who doesn't generate much support from black and Hispanic voters? I mean those are pretty crucial to Democratic victories. Or are you planning on some large appeal to them to explain why you are arguing to discount their votes in the primaries to get what you want but that they should still vote for Sanders in the general election? And before you or somebody else attempts to say that Clinton is brushing aside the votes of young people or independents, nobody is arguing that their votes shouldn't count. They are welcome to outvote the Clinton coalition, but they haven't done so at this point in the overall race.

[randr]

22. I am one to certainly trust the judgement of people from these states

to make a choice for all of us. After all these are States that have always exhibited the most progressive and liberal attitudes on all subjects we have had to deal with.
Yeah let the Blue Dogs rule!

[DanTex]

23. Speaking of November, do you plan on voting D if your guy doesn't win?

Because if not, then your pretending to care about the General Election is a very transparent charade.

[Zynx]

25. We can't win Florida? Obama did it twice.

Also, much of Sanders's delegate total comes from Idaho, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Alaska, and Oklahoma. Are we winning any of those? I don't think so.

[litlbilly]

40. thats the only state on the list where dems could win

[baldguy]

41. I'm thinking that maybe the OP's "we" isn't the same as yours & mine.

[Lil Missy]

28. I'll alert the media. n/t

[NewImproved Deal]

29. So, the Clinton Machine bagged the Alligator States...

They'll all vote GOP in November. Time to ditch the crooked "Super Delegate" racket.

[SheilaT]

30. Here's what we all should be agreeing on:

The candidate with the most delegates after June 14 (when DC votes) should be the nominee, meaning the super delegates should support that person. And while it is very disturbing to me that Hillary's big strength so far is in a group of states a Democratic nominee isn't very likely to win, them's the rules.

I just hope that Bernie Sanders can do well enough to pass Hillary in the delegate count that he is the clear front-runner going into the convention. Won't it be lovely to see Hillary once again suggesting that her opponent be nominated by acclamation?

Oh, and because it's delegates who do the nominating, not the number of votes, the Hillary people need to get over themselves about how she has so far gotten a million or so more votes than Bernie. That's utterly irrelevant under this system. Just like our stupid Electoral College. Highly undemocratic, but that's the system, and it would take a change in the Constitution to get rid of it. And that, alas, isn't going to happen any time soon.

[Zynx]

34. He won't pass her in delegates so get over it.

Even if he somehow wins New York, it won't be by much. Same goes for PA. He's likely to lose MD by a mile. Same goes for NJ in June. Unless he absolutely destroys her in California, there is no clear path for him to close that many delegates. 2/3s of the country has voted and he's down by 10% in delegates. He has to win the remaining third by about 20%. That's just not going to happen. You know it and I know it.

[SheilaT]

39. If she's so inevitable,

then you can just relax and sleep in most days.

[Zynx]

43. I do, actually.

[litlbilly]

42. not true, 20% is RW talking points, he needs 56% or just a little more to win the delagates.

[Zynx]

44. I'd like to see how that works with the remaining states.

If he wins NY, it will be far narrower than 56-44. Same goes for PA. He'll lose Maryland and NJ. He'll also almost certainly lose DC. The balance that he has to pull off after all of that is kind of staggering. He's not going to do it. It's over.

[Trenzalore]

32. Is this another argument that the Super Delegates should ignore the results of the primaries thread

I remember in January when Super Delegates were bad.

[anotherproletariat]

37. Yay Texas, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina!!!

You guys rock!!

[baldguy]

38. And she'll add NY, CA, PA & NJ soon enough.

Do you think "WE" - the Democrats that is - will win those in Nov?

[Zynx]

45. She'll also win DE and DC. Probably NM. These are all core states.

[BernieforPres2016]

47. I would take out FL at + 68 and replace it with MS at +28

That is +204 for Hillary in 5 red states where the Democrats have no chance in November. Bernie trails by an estimated 214 delegates after Washington state delegates are fully allocated.

Florida is a state the Democrats mostly likely need to win in November.

[jeepers]

48. There are three choices for superdelegates

1. Go along with the delegate count and vote the majority

2, vote for a predetermined candidate

3. use their judgement to vote for the strongest candidate

1 st choice makes them useless
2 nd choice makes them undemocratic
3 rd choice would give super delegates meaning and value.