ABC Tracking Poll: Obama 49 Rmoney 48

[VirginiaTarheel]

Obama has edge in enthusiasm.

"President Obama and Mitt Romney head into the final debate still deadlocked among likely voters nationally: 49 percent side with the Democratic president, 48 percent with the Republican challenger, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

...Obama still has strong rejoinders. He has campaign high 11-point edge over Romney when it comes to handling taxes, a 12-point lead on Medicare and a 13-point advantage on “women’s issues.” The president has a seven-point edge when it comes to understanding the economic problems people are having, and a nine-point advantage on honesty. He is still widely viewed as doing more to help the middle class than the wealthy, while voters anticipate Romney would tip the balance the other way.

The poll also shows Obama as the perceived winner of second debate — but by a far slimmer margin than Romney’s thumping in round one. Another tilt toward the president is that — unlike in 2010 — as many voters now say the economy is getting better as say it’s still deteriorating.

The see-sawing battle for voters now has Obama with the edge on the enthusiasm front: 64 percent of Obama’s backers say they are “very enthusiastic” about his candidacy, higher than the 58 percent of Romney’s who are that engaged behind his run. Still, Obama’s popularity trails 2008 levels: At this time four years ago, 63 percent of likely voters held favorable impressions of then-senator Obama; it’s 52 percent now.

A persistent gender gap underlies the topline numbers, and is now as large as it’s been in Post-ABC national polling. Female voters break 56 to 42 percent for the president; men go 54 to 42 percent for Romney. White voters side with Romney by a 15-point margin (56 to 41 percent), while non-whites break heavily for the president, 78 to 19 percent. Among African Americans, the margin is overwhelming: 94 to 2 percent."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/?wpisrc=al_comboNP_p..

[MassedPole]

1. Good good. Hope the lead grows alot more before election day. Cutting a bit too close for my persona

personal taste.

[VirginiaTarheel]

2. Only 55 percents of White voters for Romney

White voters side with Romney by a 15-point margin (56 to 41 percent), while non-whites break heavily for the president, 78 to 19 percent. Among African Americans, the margin is overwhelming: 94 to 2 percent."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Ron Brownstein Has The 80/40 Rule

In order to be reelected the president has to win eighty percent of the non white vote and forty percent of the white vote. Of course as one goes down the other must go up or vice versa. Actually, the Obama campaign thinks it can win with thirty eight percent of the white vote.

[hrmjustin]

3. Oh great another tracking poll.

[Maximumnegro]

4. Even if it's good news Dems shed tears!

[ProSense]

5. Registered voters Obama 50 (+1), Romney 43 (-1)

Oct 13 RV Obama 50, Romney 43
Sep 29 RV Obama 49, Romney 44
Sep 9 RV Obama 50, Romney 44

[jezebel]

10. those are last weeks registered voters. They were sneaky and didn't put them up for this poll.

[ProSense]

23. Oops! Thanks. n/t

[MSMITH33156]

12. If Obama's ground game is as good as they are claiming

it won't necessarily show up in the likely voter screens. They drag people to the polls, and then they tamp down that LV margin, and Romney is basically done. Almost no one (sans Gallup) shows him competitive in Registered Voters.

I also wonder if this is also accounting for some of the divergence in national polls versus state polls. You poll someone in Ohio, who knows their vote counts, and they are probably a lot more likely to vote, versus someone in California, who knows their vote doesn't matter. If the Reps are more motivated by Obama hate, they are probably more inclined to vote regardless of the value of their vote.

[reflection]

6. Well, at least Romney peeled off 2% more AA than he was getting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Now Live In One Of The Most Heterogeneous Cities In The U.S.

I have yet to meet one person of color who likes Robme. Thank God.

[VirginiaTarheel]

8. The Enthusiasm Edge is the Big STORY here folks!

Also, on who won last debate, Obama by 49-28 and 16 thinking a tie and the rest no opinion.


self identification as to party

Dem 34
Repub 29
Independent 33
other 3
don't know 1

[Azathoth]

9. Finally we're getting a real, bona fide, live-interview tracking poll

Outside of Gallup and TIPP, we've been drowning in robopolling, internet polling, same-sample polling, and all kinds of other gimmicky bullshit when it comes to tracking polls.

[AndyTiedye]

11. Rmoney is Polling Worse With Blacks Than W Did Right After Katrina

Among African Americans, the margin is overwhelming: 94 to 2 percent.

[dennis4868]

13. WTH?

Did this poll say 52-46 for Romney in swing states? Hope that's not right!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. The MOE For That Subsample Must Be >10%

That's why we have individual state polls.

[Azathoth]

18. I wouldn't get too worried about that one

It's a national poll, which means the sample size from just the swing states is relatively small, which means the confidence interval is probably huge. Moreover, a significant portion of that already-small sample likely comes from larger swing states like Florida and Virginia, where Romney is slightly ahead.

[bushisanidiot]

15. It disgusts me that romney gets 15 more of the white vote.

racism is still alive and well in the u.s.a.

glad that the women's vote is still going overwhelmingly for the President.
I'm not worried about the men's vote being as high, because more women
than men vote anyway so we outnumber romney there.

[WI_DEM]

17. If Obama actually gets 41% of the white vote he should win the election

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. If Obama actually gets 41% of the white vote he should win the election,fairly easily

Which is about the same % Kerry and Dukakis lost with. The national Republicans are about to be drowned by a demographic tidal wave. National Republicans will be like California Republicans; reduced to winning elections by finding niche "party less" candidates like Arnold.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Any poll that has Obama up is good for the narrative.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Especially A Huge Media Poll

Much better for propaganda purposes than IBD/TIPP


I can remember watching it every day in 00 and 04 and hoping it would turn toward us but , alas, it never did.

[VirginiaTarheel]

22. This and CBS Poll will help narrative