2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumUNH New Hampshire poll - Obama 49 - Romney 41
Obama 49 Romney 41, however I cannot find this poll anywhere I just now read this on twitter a couple of minutes ago, are they a reliable pollster?
Update: see post 2 for link...
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)So if you can't trust them who can you trust.
pfeiffer
(280 posts)and by no means insulting...but yes, it's the university of new hampshire...so that's got to be good.
BraKez2
(279 posts)Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)BraKez2
(279 posts)MadBadger
(24,089 posts)yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)Just another example of how many ways Romney can lose.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)If he loses Ohio, he will probably need NH to get to 269. Without it, it just pushes Obama that much closer. Basically, if Obama wins Ohio and loses the election, it is going to be by 5 EVs or so. NH will all but do it.
But the state polls seem to be solidifying in Obama's corner.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)and beyond the margin of error. romney's path to 270 just got a hell of a lot harder.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)UNH's poll had him up 11 in their last poll of NH in 2008. So they overstated his support by 1.5 points.
That said, they were tied for the most accurate pollster of that state, along with SurveyUSA.
Rasmussen understated Obamas support in NH by 2.5 points.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)If he won by that much last time then yeah doesn't look like NH's going anywhere...
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)S_E_Fudd
(1,295 posts)In 3..2..1
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)It would be nice to not have to worry about NH in the last two weeks.
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)Can be combined with NV and IA (MI, PA, OH, IA, NV, NH)
Can also be used for Doomsday scenario (loss of the Big Four FL, OH, NC, VA)
MI, PA, WI, CO, NV, IA, NH also wins and based on polls this is doable as well. That would really frost Romney's butt.
Can be used in combination with NC if OH is lost
MI, PA, NC&NH, WI or CO, NV or IA
Can be used in combination with VA if OH is lost
MI, PA, VA&NH, WI, NV or IA (note CO will not work in this case since that is 269)
I don't see Obama losing WI and winning the election though. Too many other connected states would be lost (such as IA and OH).
My most likely combination is:
MI, PA, OH, WI, IA/NV (both IA and NV will be won but only one is needed)
We really should be pushing on CO as well. I like that alternate path away from OH.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)NH is good to have in case of these scenarios.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)So they are crediting it as a 9-point lead.
But whether it's 8 points or 9 points, it's an improvement over the 6-point lead Obama had in New Hampshire in the WMUR/UNH poll taken after the first debate.
So if Obama has recovered from his low in New Hampshire, that's a good sign.
NHDEMFORLIFE
(489 posts)Over the years it has also been pretty straight-forward in its methodology.
The president will win here.