UNH New Hampshire poll - Obama 49 - Romney 41

[BraKez2]

Obama 49 Romney 41, however I cannot find this poll anywhere I just now read this on twitter a couple of minutes ago, are they a reliable pollster?

Update: see post 2 for link...

[Maximumnegro]

1. Well, it's the University of New Hampshire

So if you can't trust them who can you trust.

[pfeiffer]

8. an excellent deadpan response...

and by no means insulting...but yes, it's the university of new hampshire...so that's got to be good.

[BraKez2]

17. Thats what I tought aswell but didnt want to jump the gun

[Maximumnegro]

2. Here's the link

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres102212.pdf

[BraKez2]

4. thanks I couldnt find it...

[MadBadger]

3. Can you provide a link to the tweet?

[Mass]

5. Here

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres102212.pdf

[yellowcanine]

6. Romney probably has to have NH if he loses Ohio.

Just another example of how many ways Romney can lose.

[MSMITH33156]

12. Yep

If he loses Ohio, he will probably need NH to get to 269. Without it, it just pushes Obama that much closer. Basically, if Obama wins Ohio and loses the election, it is going to be by 5 EVs or so. NH will all but do it.

But the state polls seem to be solidifying in Obama's corner.

[ProSense]

7. PDF:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres102212.pdf

[bushisanidiot]

9. That is a substantial lead!

and beyond the margin of error. romney's path to 270 just got a hell of a lot harder.

[woolldog]

10. Obama won NH by 9.5 points in 2008

UNH's poll had him up 11 in their last poll of NH in 2008. So they overstated his support by 1.5 points.

That said, they were tied for the most accurate pollster of that state, along with SurveyUSA.

Rasmussen understated Obamas support in NH by 2.5 points.

[Maximumnegro]

19. Well there you go

If he won by that much last time then yeah doesn't look like NH's going anywhere...

[berni_mccoy]

11. Huge news! Nh does not like Rmoney!

[Drunken Irishman]

13. It's actually a bigger lead if you include leaners: Obama 51, Romney: 42

[S_E_Fudd]

14. How long before PPP tweets their survey shows a "different story"....

In 3..2..1

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. keep em coming

[VirginiaTarheel]

16. Gives Obama breathing room to focus on OH and IA

[WI_DEM]

18. Terrific! Combined with leaners it's 51-42 Obama!!

It would be nice to not have to worry about NH in the last two weeks.

[exboyfil]

20. NH comes into play with loss of WI and CO

Can be combined with NV and IA (MI, PA, OH, IA, NV, NH)

Can also be used for Doomsday scenario (loss of the Big Four FL, OH, NC, VA)
MI, PA, WI, CO, NV, IA, NH also wins and based on polls this is doable as well. That would really frost Romney's butt.

Can be used in combination with NC if OH is lost

MI, PA, NC&NH, WI or CO, NV or IA

Can be used in combination with VA if OH is lost

MI, PA, VA&NH, WI, NV or IA (note CO will not work in this case since that is 269)

I don't see Obama losing WI and winning the election though. Too many other connected states would be lost (such as IA and OH).

My most likely combination is:

MI, PA, OH, WI, IA/NV (both IA and NV will be won but only one is needed)

We really should be pushing on CO as well. I like that alternate path away from OH.

[Jennicut]

21. Those 4 little votes mean a lot!

NH is good to have in case of these scenarios.

[TroyD]

22. RCP shows the poll as: Obama 51, Romney 42

So they are crediting it as a 9-point lead.

But whether it's 8 points or 9 points, it's an improvement over the 6-point lead Obama had in New Hampshire in the WMUR/UNH poll taken after the first debate.

So if Obama has recovered from his low in New Hampshire, that's a good sign.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

23. This has been a fairly reliable poll

Over the years it has also been pretty straight-forward in its methodology.
The president will win here.