Nevada Early Voting Report

[stevend56]

The Silver State allows for a two week early voting period before election day. Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno), along with Carson City and Douglas County provide early voting statistics. Clark County and Carson city also provide absentee results. Therefore we can get a pretty good idea of where the presidential race stands. Early voting started Saturday.

So far the number of people that have voted early from the above areas, or returned an absentee ballot in Clark County or Carson City is 98501. 49,205 Democrats, 33,894 Republicans, and 15,402 independents or other party. Making some reasonable but conservative assumptions, we can figure out if Obama is ahead and by how much. Lets assume that Obama wins 85% of the democratic vote, 10% of the Republican vote, and 40% of the independent/other vote. This gives us a vote total of 51,365 for Obama and 47,126 for Romney. This means that Obama should be leading by over 4200 votes right now.

But what about the rest of the state...after all they also vote! In 2008, the margin for the rest of the state was just a little less than 22,000 votes for John McCain. So, we need to overcome this margin to add Nevada's 6 electoral votes to the Democratic column.

Currently, the Democrats have over 90,000 more registered voters than Republicans in the state. If we get out the vote, we win.


Early voting trailer at Costco parking lot.


Early voting inside Albertsons supermarket.

Cross posted At Daily Koss

[davidpdx]

1. Nice report

I hope the totals continue to improve.

[skeewee08]

2. thank you n/t

[jerseyjack]

3. In your calculations, did you subtractd the votes to be subtracted by Tagg's voting machines?

[stevend56]

6. No voting machine fraud in Nevada...

The machines in Nevada print a paper record of your vote. You get to verify that the paper printout is correct before you cast your vote. Voting machine fraud in Nevada would be next to impossible.

[WI_DEM]

4. Good report, but I'd say that dems who vote early are probably more than 90% for Obama

and that Obama will end up with better than 40% of the independent vote.

[stevend56]

5. I hope so...

I just wanted to use conservative numbers, to give more of a worst case scenario.