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Thu Mar 31, 2016, 07:17 AM

 

No, the Democratic Race Isn't Close

Last edited Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:03 AM - Edit history (1)

Victoria Brownworth ‏@VABVOX 1h1 hour ago
"Think the Democratic Primary is close? It's not close."
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-30/no-the-democratic-race-isn-t-close?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56fce00a04d301205f9a8d6d&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter


One of CNN's on-screen headlines on Wednesday was “Democratic Race Tight Without Superdelegates.” That is not true.

How bad is it for Bernie Sanders? A new survey in Wisconsin released today by the highly respected Marquette Law poll gave the Vermont senator a solid lead, 49 percent, to 44 percent for Hillary Clinton -- which is terrible news for Sanders if he hopes to capture the nomination. That’s because he would need to win by a much larger margin in Wisconsin -- Nate Silver estimates a 16-percentage-point landslide -- to get on pace to finish with more pledged delegates than Clinton.

And that’s not the worst of it. In New York, where Sanders would need to win by 4 percentage points, the polls have him 20 points behind Clinton. The situation is even worse in Pennsylvania.

Of course, the polls can change, but there’s no particular reason to believe they will. And polls can be wrong, as they were in Michigan (where Sanders won despite a large polling lead for Clinton). Still, the polls have been accurate in most states this year.

Sanders is running an impressive campaign and winning lots of supporters, but he simply isn’t close to winning the nomination. Nor is that some sort of fluke related to the way Democrats do things. After all, since he gained on Clinton over the summer and fall, she’s maintained a fairly stable lead of about 10 percentage points in the primaries and caucuses.

He’s exceeded what he needed to do in caucus states. But he’s underperformed in primary states. That leaves him about 100 delegates short of where he would need to be at this point, and about 250 pledged delegates behind Clinton overall.


read more: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-30/no-the-democratic-race-isn-t-close?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=56fce00a04d301205f9a8d6d&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

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Arrow 20 replies Author Time Post
Reply No, the Democratic Race Isn't Close (Original post)
bigtree Mar 2016 OP
Gothmog Mar 2016 #1
Human101948 Mar 2016 #2
Gothmog Mar 2016 #3
Vinca Mar 2016 #4
snowy owl Mar 2016 #9
snowy owl Mar 2016 #6
Human101948 Mar 2016 #18
SidDithers Mar 2016 #5
Post removed Mar 2016 #7
Ken Burch Mar 2016 #8
morningfog Mar 2016 #14
Ken Burch Mar 2016 #19
HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #10
cosmicone Mar 2016 #11
CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #16
panader0 Mar 2016 #12
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #15
mcar Mar 2016 #13
Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #17
Lucinda Mar 2016 #20

Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 07:34 AM

1. The math is against Sanders

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 07:53 AM

2. And once again the elite one percent win!

 

What a great day for America!

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Response to Human101948 (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:19 AM

3. Hillary Clinton has 2.5 million more voters than Sanders

Why should the person with the largest number of votes and delegates lose?

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:20 AM

4. Why should the votes be tallied when the most populous states haven't voted yet?

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Response to Vinca (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:30 AM

9. Let the votes be counted

I agree with you. If Bernie loses - and I'm pretty convinced his chances are minimal - I don't understand why some people can't have the patience to let everybody vote.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:26 AM

6. I think you missed his point.

I guess the masses are always right - right? I don't think so. We did have Nixon, Bush and Reagan. Sometimes they make mistakes. Can you tell me how you know that Clinton will be the best of the two? I keep looking for evidence that she is the strongest candidate to run the country but so far, no one has posted any.

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Response to snowy owl (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 12:13 PM

18. Thank you Snowy

 

The Pet Rock was very popular as well.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:22 AM

5. DU rec...nt

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #5)


Response to SidDithers (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:30 AM

8. Sid, you're Canadian...why do you even care who an American political party nominates for president?

 

Bernie's not only just as electable as(if not more electable than) HRC, and would treat Canada far better than she would.

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Response to Ken Burch (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:30 AM

14. He doesn't actually care.

 

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Response to morningfog (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 07:17 PM

19. Why does he bother, then?

 

Isn't it enough for him to insult progressives in his OWN country?

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:31 AM

10. Shorter...

 

22 primaries left, Bernie needs 56% or better of those 22 to beat Hillary

Math... or something...

All these troll baiting OPs show a growing level of desperation and fear by HRC supporters

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:14 AM

11. #feelthemath n/t

 

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Response to cosmicone (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:56 AM

16. +1

 

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:24 AM

12. If HRC supporters really believe that

why do they post such ugly and nasty posts?

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Response to panader0 (Reply #12)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:39 AM

15. becaues ugly and nasty is what this forum is all about.

 

Or have you not noticed all of the "throw Hillary in jail" stuff coming from Team Bernie?

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 09:27 AM

13. K&R

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:00 AM

17. This is dumb-- it's not over until it's over and anything can happen between now and the convention

 

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 08:40 PM

20. KNR Thank you!

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