NC\IA\OH\NV ON TRACK FOR OBAMA (NC UPDATE)!!!

[Maximumnegro]

Last edited Mon Oct 22, 2012, 11:02 AM - Edit history (2)

For those whining, crying, ledge-walking, Depends wearing doomsayers take note:
Those 'unikely voters' are voting...

NORTH CAROLINA

10/22

NC Early Voting Day 4: African American Turnout Doubles White GOP Turnout Sunday

More HERE

10/21

Turnout so far in 2012 early voting can only be described as epic. Yesterday's diary reported that turnout was up 26.6% above 2008. Now with updated data, turnout is 36.6% above 2008. And that number will only go up even further if there are still some counties lagging behind.

Overall, Obama appears to be building up an early vote margin right in line with the early vote margin he built up in 2008. In fact, Saturday was even better than the same Saturday in 2008. But because early turnout is higher, it could be harder for Romney to make up the difference on election day than it was for McCain in 2008, because there may not be as many Romney voters left over for election day. More of the Obama early voters are new voters who would not be able to vote on election day if they did not vote right now, whereas most of the Romney early voters would otherwise just vote on election day.

In sum, 2008 is happening again in North Carolina, only the turnout is even higher.

More on that later; now let's take a look at those 42,709 new voters.

Well, new voter registration statistics have been released, and so now we have the evidence to back up that speculation. This is an over-generalization, but broadly Obama is indeed turning out new voters, whereas Romney is turning out the same old voters.

In total, 324,780 people voted in One-Stop Early Voting on Thursday and Friday. Of those, 42,709 were brand new previously unregistered voters. They did not pass any poll's "likely voter" screen, nor did they even pass any poll's registered voter screen. And yet, they voted. And it is clear that they voted overwhelmingly for Obama (probably by about 2 to 1).

Read the rest w/ graphs and stats HERE

Why waste time pulling hair out over polls when the Obama Campaign tells you straight from the horse's mouth?:

IOWA:

Jeremy Bird/OFA

IOWA Dems currently have a 55,100 votes cast advantage - 53% higher than the advantage at this point in 2008

OHIO:

It turns out Republicans’ mangled math isn’t limited to a mystery tax cut plan that doesn’t add
up

Before we address Republicans’ claims, here are some numbers reflecting Democrats’ strong
position in the critical state of Ohio:
1. All public polling shows that the President has a double-digit lead among those who
have voted:

 Survey USA found that Obama leads by 19 points (57/38) among those who have
voted already.

 Rasmussen, a Republican pollster, found that Obama leads by 29 points (63/34)
among those who have voted already.
 The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that Obama leads by 26 points (63/37)
among those who have voted already.
 PPP found that Obama leads by 52 points (76/24) among those who have voted
already.
2. Registration numbers strongly favor President Obama:
 Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either
female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino – all demographics that
strongly favor President Obama.
 Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012 – and
the same percentage among those who have already voted – live in counties that
President Obama won in 2008.
3. Early vote numbers strongly favor President Obama:
 More than half (55 percent) of the early-vote ballots requested so far this year have
been requested by women, 3 percentage points greater than 2008 early voters.
 582,402 ballots have been requested this year from precincts that Obama won in
2008, 33,414 more than in from precincts that McCain won.
 The total number of votes already cast this year (both by mail and in-person) from
precincts Obama won in 2008 is 261,304 – 55,636 more than from precincts McCain
won. D

More HERE

NEVADA:

Jon Ralston Twitter

Clark County early vote numbers in - 18,388 Dems. 9,588 Republicans. 55-29%. Similar to '08
but bigger raw vote lead

Look at the rest of his tweets and bask in the glow of imminent VICTORY:

The Democrats are crushing the Republicans

That's some pretty damned good news that the polls and media aren't catching.

So quit yer bitchin' and GOTV!!!

[barnabas63]

1. I am very hopeful!

If we GOTV, and I think we will, Obama will win this election!

[cheriemedium59]

2. Thank you for this information. I must shamefully admit...

I am one of the whiners feeling depressed about the polls today...

[GallopingGhost]

5. Don't worry about the stupid polls.

All that matters is the actual votes, and we're winning.

[barbtries]

48. republicans are fucking them up.

a DUer a few days ago mentioned how she'd been getting calls that went like this:

pollster: would you have 5 or 6 minutes to complete a poll for us?
DUer: sure
pollster: Do you plan to vote democratic or republican in this year's presidential election?
DUer: Democratic
pollster: thank you for your time (hangs up)

i told my boss this story this morning. her husband works from home and according to her, he's been getting these calls constantly.

i'm trying to really ignore the polls because i believe they are full of shit. though i really wish there was some way to stop this crap because it's setting up the electorate for the steal.

[DemKittyNC]

3. This is wonderful!

I am voting early tomorrow, straight Democratic ticket baby, my first time voting I can not wait!!!

[bluemarkers]

13. me too!

straight ticket, but voting a little later in the week

btw, spread this: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/10/20/2426549/wake-school-board-member-named.html

The gop candidate for state auditor appears to be a little, um, wacky ... fun read involving two gopers having a relationship, large amounts of cash at home that goes missing leading one to accuse the other of theft.... spread the word! (thanks to the Wake County School Board, brought to you by the ncgop)

[struggle4progress]

17. Be sure to remember: a straight ticket doesn't include the Prez -- so vote

for Obama first! then vote for the straight ticket! then vote for the judges!

[barbtries]

47. when i voted Saturday

the Obama team and another voting advocacy group were talking to nearly every one on their way in and i'm sure they were covering this, AND when they handed me my ballot they had these instructions written down for every voter. so i am very hopeful that there will not be votes lost to Obama because of that, at least not many.

[struggle4progress]

16. Be sure to remember: a straight ticket doesn't include the Prez -- so vote

for Obama first! then vote for the straight ticket! then vote for the judges!

[DemKittyNC]

24. Okay thank you I will be sure to check that.

I am having a hard time who to pick for Judges. I know nothing about them.

Is there a site that helps point out the Dem Friendly ones? I do not want to be voting for some right wing nut jobs. Thanks for any help you or someone else could provide on this.

[struggle4progress]

34. .

Judicial Endorsements Committee
http://www.ncawa.org/committees/judicial-endorsements/

... Judicial races in N.C. are supposed to be non-partisan, but conservative super-PACs are waging an all-out campaign to elect right-wing Republican candidates. For a fair and unbiased judiciary, PA PAC urges you to vote for these judicial candidates:
Supreme Court Justice - JUDGE SAMUEL J. ERVIN, IV; Court of Appeals Judge (3 separate contests) - LINDA MCGEE, WANDA BRYANT, and CRESSIE THIGPEN ...
http://www.durhampa.org/pac/2012-elections/

[DemKittyNC]

42. Hi, I just saw this. Thank you so very much!!! :)

[bornskeptic]

36. Here's your link for the judges - at the bottom of the page.

http://www.ncdp.org/content/2012-candidate-information

[DemKittyNC]

43. Thank you for this!

I was so worried about this so this has taken a great weight off my mind. I think I am now prepared when I go vote today! I am so looking forward to voting.

[LiberalElite]

26. Happy First Vote!!

[DemKittyNC]

44. Thank you :) Kinda nervous but can't wait.

It will be a great feeling to know Obama has another vote in her corner. N.C. is going blue once again!

[SCliberal091294]

4. polls...

How are the polls depressing you. It's only gallup which was #20 in accuracy in 2008. TIPP had better accuracy.

[ShadowLiberal]

6. How accurate has early voting been history to who wins a state?

I think I read somewhere that it was fairly accurate in 2004, except in Iowa where Kerry had somewhat narrow lead that he lost on election day. But don't quote me, I'm not that certain.

[wildeyed]

7. GOTV! GOTV!

Hitting the streets in about half an hour

[Maximumnegro]

28. Thank you!!! Go Get 'em!!!

[NMDemDist2]

8. they're giving me the % above last time, but what is the usual percentage of the electorate to early

vote?

IOW, how many folks will be left to vote Election Day is what I guess I'm trying to ask. 60% ? 90%? 30%?

[LisaL]

9. Still two weeks until the election so will have to wait to know that.

[longship]

10. Keep a positive outlook!

We've got this if everybody does their part.

Work. Vote.

[Charlotte Little]

11. Keep bumping this thread...

This is definitely solid good news. Now, why is the RNC pulling out of NC??? (heh heh)

[Maximumnegro]

14. LOL. Turns out it was a head fake:

HERE

It appears to have been -- as Democrats claimed at the time -- a head-fake. The Huffington Post placed calls to all 22 Romney Victory offices in the state of North Carolina on Saturday. Each one was still open, with plans to remain that way until Election Day. Asked about reports that Romney was moving resources out of the state, several campaign staffers (not knowing that they were talking to a member of the press) said that those reports were overstated.

"That’s not true," said an official at Romney's Concord Victory Office. "There was one person who left from Raleigh and that’s because we had a pretty deep communications team. We shipped one to Ohio but we still have a pretty deep team in the state."

Romney is so full of sh*t. NOTHING they say is true.

[Maraya1969]

12. Now I feel like going to the polls and not sending in my ballot but the polls are not even open

in Florida yet. What to do? What to do? I'd love to have my vote count early.

[LisaL]

18. Aren't the polls going to open soon?

In OH, even if you vote absentee, you can walk your absentee ballot in person to the board of election. How is it in FL?

[ProudProgressiveNow]

15. GOTV! nt

[mnhtnbb]

19. I've been saying OFA has a very strong ground game in NC. Nice to see the data!

[RBInMaine]

20. GOTTA KEEP THIS GOING RIGHT TO ELECTION DAY !! DON'T LET UP ! GOTV !!

[MFM008]

21. ledge walker here

yup.

[VirginiaTarheel]

22. Awesome stats, especially stoked about OH and NC

[Maximumnegro]

23. Is this what a troll free thread looks like?

Come on people!!! Let me know you got the Pres' back!!!

[Tribetime]

25. excellent K/R

[michello]

27. OBAMA 2012!

romney 1040

[BlueStateBlue]

29. K & R n/t

[Jennicut]

30. Thanks for the stats.

In NC, a lot of these voters are not going to be in any likely voter screens. NC is unique with it's One-Stop early voting registration.

[juajen]

31. I have his back, and four other dems will be voting with me.

I am so afraid that early ballots will not be counted somehow. Some reassurance on this worry would be so appreciated.

[LisaL]

32. With a huge number of people voting, if they don't count early ballots, we will figure it out!

[NCarolinawoman]

38. The North Carolina Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Governor are all DEMOCRATS.

That will put a check on Republican dirty tricks, at least in this state.

[VirginiaTarheel]

33. Go North Carolina!

[Motown_Johnny]

35. I hope the weather just plain sucks in some of these swing states on election day

Then when Pres. Obama wins that state and wins the election we can tell all the nut jobs that God must have wanted him to win.

I also hope their heads explode.

[Maximumnegro]

37. Ok, a little weird but I'll take it!!!!

Game on!!!

[Motown_Johnny]

45. Think about it a minute

With early voting favoring us, if weather depresses the turnout on election day it makes it easier for us to win.

Plus the religious conservatives like to give God credit for every event in nature.

[GetTheRightVote]

39. Wow, this is awesome...

I hope they keep voting just like this until Pres. Obama sits int he WH once again.

[outsideworld]

40. fantastic News . We need to get out the vote

[David Zephyr]

41. Maximumnegro, thanks for compiling it all.

K&R.

[barbtries]

46. NC going blue again

YEAH!

i was poll monitoring in Raleigh on Saturday. a steady stream of voters in the afternoon, but in the morning they'd had lines snaking around the building. at about 5:30 i abandoned my post and went inside and voted, and it felt damn good.

[obamanut2012]

49. We will go blue again if the early trend continues

Maybe by only a point or two, but that's fine!

And, since Pat McRomney is crushing Walter Dalton, there isn't even a close state-level race to get NC GOP base excited.

I am hoping for bad weather on election day.

[barbtries]

50. yeah, i'd like that.

but even more i want to watch that early trend continue. GOTV

[libdem4life]

51. Not a hand wringer, but a breath holder ... starting to exhale ... Great News !!!

This year I proudly cast my 10th Democratic Presidential Vote. I well remember "If you can get shot and die (in the military at 18) for your country, then we darn well should allow you to vote." It was 1971.

Thanks for the updates.

[Wednesdays]

52. K & R