IBD/TIPP tracking poll Obama 47.9 Romney 42.2

[jezebel]

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election
Daily Tracking Poll

Day 13: Oct. 21, 2012


Obama: +5.7
Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%
•Obama has opened up a 6-point lead over Romney in our latest poll, his largest lead yet.
•Some 8.1% of those polled said they were “not sure” whom they would vote for, also the largest percentage yet.
•Obama’s lead seemed to build after the second debate, which many mainstream media pundits believe Obama won.
•Self-described “moderates” now prefer Obama over Romney by 22 points, the second largest margin since we began polling.
•Obama holds a hefty 35-point lead among urban dwellers, and a comfortable 5-point lead in the suburbs.


Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx#ixzz29xHkG5GW

[Mutiny In Heaven]

1. Accuracy:

http://investdaily.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/1041/~/what-is-the-ibd%2Ftipp-poll%3F

"An analysis of Final Certified Results of Presidential Election 2004 and Election 2008 show that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate pollster of both campaign seasons."

[still_one]

2. I hope so

[speedoo]

3. It's LV and it looks like a solid poll.

Actually might be a bit left leaning.

[Gman]

4. Outlier

We'll see if it verifies in the next few days.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. The IBD is a rabid right wing conservative paper.

I suspect that their editors chew on world news daily for breakfast

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Can't Imagine They Like Publishing These Results

.

[speedoo]

6. Might be an outlier if you buy the ridiculous LV screens in other polls.

I don't.

[mgcgulfcoast]

7. 13 point difference inthis one and gallup

lets hope this one is right

[Charlotte Little]

8. I think...

...(and hope and pray) that we are going to have a repeat of '08 in that Obama's lead will grow in the final week and he wins the election (barring no major disaster occurs in the next two weeks).

http://news.investors.com/121508-452833-ibdtipp-takes-top-honors-again.aspx?Ntt=IBD/TIPP%20Takes%20Top%20Honors%20Again

Romney cannot win the debate on foreign policy other than to try and out-bluster Obama. And we all know what a blustering Mittens does to himself (foot? - meet bullet). I think the media may try and call it a "draw" to keep ratings up and Faux News will screech about a "win" for Mittens, but the momentum to Obama will continue and grow.

I'm heading to the gym and then to the Obama Campaign headquarters to spend three hours making phone calls this afternoon. I believe our president will be reelected and I'm going to keep doing my most to ensure that happens.

[boingboinh]

9. 2008 IBD/TIPP On the same day had Obama vs Mcain @ +1 Obama

And IBD/TIPP Final Poll on Nov 1-3 had Obama @ +8
Final Results for 2008: Obama +7.2

It should be noted though that on Oct 21, 2008 Obama's +1 lead by IBD/TIPP was the lowest of any other...Obama seemed to be kicking ass at that point (routinely beating mcain by +5 to +10)

[Charlotte Little]

14. I thought...

...at this exact time in '08, the media was saying it was as tight as they are claiming now...??? Of course, I don't have anything to back this, so I could be wrong. But as memory serves, I was fretting myself into a frenzy two weeks out from the election back then.

Something I do look at every day in this 2012 election, is how the markets react. Intrade has O at 61.1% this morning. O hasn't fallen below 55% and hasn't gone above 65% for the last two weeks, which would show that the race has in fact tightened, but that O has maintained solid odds in his favor. I am certain that the republicans would love to have these kind of odds for their candidate and would trade places in a heart beat.

I have used 'ear to the ground' over and over in this forum to imply that those folks betting their hard earned cash know more of what's going on than the media is telling us. MSM has to make money and right now, showing a locked even race with one or the other candidate going up/down consistently in polls, they are raking in the major bucks. They make money off of viewership both on air and on their websites. They need this race to be exciting and they need headlines. Just reading HP makes my head spin - they are the worst at putting up melodramatic headlines over and over to draw another click.

We can choose to ignore Gallup and embrace IBD/Tipp. Or we hyperventilate over the Gallup results and just assume the race is over. Either way, they are both just polls. Their are millions of people in the country and I don't think anyone can argue that the polling methods aren't outdated, their is significantly less polling this year than in '08, and any one of them (whether great news or terrible news) for our candidate is not representative of how the country will ultimately vote. We could wake up on November 7th to the news of a squeak or a landslide for either candidate, but if I had money to bet, it wouldn't be on Mittens.

So, I say, stick to the markets. Follow 538 - Nate may end up losing his credibility after this election for all I know, but he seems the most non-partisan out of anyone out there. He is not a shill for Obama nor is he secretly backing the RNC. He's a very bright numbers nerd who has either had extraordinary luck in predicting the outcomes in past elections or his numbers really do mean something, his model really is effective and O's chances of winning really are as good as he states. And, so far, things are still looking good for Obama.

One last thing - there was a tweet out a couple of days ago about how Wall Street is now donating to O. I never heard anything more about it, but if that is true, it's a very, very good sign, especially this late in the election.

[bamacrat]

23. +1 n/t

[Welcome_hubby]

16. You lied there buddy

It's not true that IBD/TIPP had McCain up by 1% the same day or any time near the same day as today.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

[Dawgs]

21. How do you know they lied? Could just be wrong, "buddy". n/t

[FBaggins]

22. So you're saying that in addition to being rude...

... you don't know how to read?

From your link. The IBD/TIPP number that includes today's date was in fact Obama +1 (as the poster claimed - though you "lied" and claimed that (s)he said McCain +1 ). Most other pollsters at the time did imply an almost double-digit lead (the average being seven points on the RCP average).

[Dawson Leery]

10. Post debate bounce.

[LenaBaby61]

11. STILL going to give this poll

The side eye Oo just the same....

....

[MadBadger]

13. Obama down only 1 in the south?

That margin seems a bit low to me

[Mutiny In Heaven]

17. There wasn't too much in the south circa 2008 pre-election polling

And really, it depends on what states they're considering to be part of that region. Obama will get blitzed in the usual places, but contemplate that there's hugely mixed polling coming out of, for example, Florida. It's not outside the realm of possibility that he could win that state by a similar margin.

Personally, I think a point is low - I say add another 5-6 to that, but I do think that certain polling firms' likely voter screens are going to look pretty shabby after this election.

[Welcome_hubby]

15. Why doesn't this thread have 200 recs?

It should.

[Onlooker]

18. So now we're stuck liking IBD and Newsmax!

Those groups have the two best polls for Obama. What in the world is going on? (Newsmax shows Obama with a 3 pt. lead over Rmoney in Florida.)

[Jennicut]

20. IBD/Tipp was more accurate in 2008 and 2010 then Gallup was.

I don't buy Zogby/Newsmax polls for a second. Zogby is a terrible poller. IBD/Tipp is a respected pollster that has a proven track record.

[FBaggins]

24. They really weren't.

Their final number was one of the closest, but they were all over the place prior to that... nor are they a "respected pollster with a proven track record".

We just happen to like what they're saying now.

They showed Romney up by five a week and a half ago. Do you think he was that far up? Do you think the race has shifted 11 points in ten days?

On edit - Here's a comment Nate Silver made re: their 2008 polling:

As we learned during the Presidntial campaign -- when, among other things, they had John McCain winning the youth vote 74-22 -- the IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they're doing. I mean, literally none. For example, I don't trust IBD/TIPP to have competently selected anything resembling a random panel, which is harder to do than you'd think.

[VirginiaTarheel]

19. Bump: thread of the Day

[Tx4obama]

26. K&R n/t