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Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:47 AM

Can Bernie Sanders Really Win the Nomination?

An interesting piece from the New Yorker.

Sanders and his supporters point out, with quite a bit of justification, that the pundits and the betting markets have underestimated him all along. Before Saturday, who would have predicted that Sanders would best Clinton by sixty-four percentage points in Alaska, forty-six points in Washington, and forty points in Hawaii?

The Sanders campaign is an impressive phenomenon, and in states like New York and California it is still growing. While out shopping on Third Avenue in Brooklyn yesterday, I came across hundreds of Sanders supporters, almost all of them young, who had gathered to mark the opening of a local campaign office. The candidate was thousands of miles away in Wisconsin, and the results from the Western states were still hours away, but a large crowd of his followers had given up their Saturday mornings to express their support for him.

“Hillary Clinton and I agree that it is imperative that no Republican make it to the Oval Office,” Sanders said in Madison. Where the two candidates didn’t agree, he went on, was regarding who was best positioned to stop the Republicans. “One of our campaigns has created an enormous amount of enthusiasm and energy that will lead to a large voter turnout in November,” Sanders added. “That campaign is our campaign.”


At this stage, even the most loyal Clinton supporter would have difficulty disputing that claim, which has implications for both the general election and the remaining primaries. The young voters and progressive voters who have flocked to Sanders are key components of the Obama coalition. If Clinton does get the nomination, she will desperately need their backing. And she will also need to tap into some of the enthusiasm and commitment that the Sanders campaign has engendered.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/can-bernie-sanders-really-win-the-nomination

73 replies, 2925 views

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Arrow 73 replies Author Time Post
Reply Can Bernie Sanders Really Win the Nomination? (Original post)
noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 OP
awake Mar 2016 #1
PonyUp Mar 2016 #2
Darb Mar 2016 #6
GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #10
Darb Mar 2016 #11
GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #13
Darb Mar 2016 #15
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #22
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #24
dchill Mar 2016 #34
rock Mar 2016 #50
GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #54
Karma13612 Mar 2016 #71
Sheepshank Mar 2016 #58
GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #61
merrily Mar 2016 #52
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #20
merrily Mar 2016 #53
marions ghost Mar 2016 #3
Darb Mar 2016 #7
marions ghost Mar 2016 #12
Darb Mar 2016 #14
marions ghost Mar 2016 #26
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #31
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #33
marions ghost Mar 2016 #39
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #25
Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #28
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #35
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #27
Native Mar 2016 #56
noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 #57
Native Mar 2016 #63
noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 #66
marions ghost Mar 2016 #59
Native Mar 2016 #62
marions ghost Mar 2016 #64
LexVegas Mar 2016 #4
Vinca Mar 2016 #5
Darb Mar 2016 #16
peacebird Mar 2016 #19
Post removed Mar 2016 #23
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #36
dchill Mar 2016 #40
Vinca Mar 2016 #55
KitSileya Mar 2016 #8
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #37
rbrnmw Mar 2016 #43
DemonGoddess Mar 2016 #46
noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 #60
Chasstev365 Mar 2016 #9
Darb Mar 2016 #17
Chasstev365 Mar 2016 #21
DemonGoddess Mar 2016 #47
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #38
restorefreedom Mar 2016 #49
In_The_Wind Mar 2016 #18
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #29
marions ghost Mar 2016 #45
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #72
Nonhlanhla Mar 2016 #30
JackInGreen Mar 2016 #32
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #41
JI7 Mar 2016 #42
redstateblues Mar 2016 #44
marions ghost Mar 2016 #48
strategery blunder Mar 2016 #67
thereismore Mar 2016 #51
grntuscarora Mar 2016 #65
noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 #68
grntuscarora Mar 2016 #69
noretreatnosurrender Mar 2016 #70
amborin Mar 2016 #73

Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:03 AM

1. Yes He Can

If a black man named Obama can win the nomination over HRC then of course Bernie can do the same, if he will remains to be seen. At this point in the race is hard? hell yes but I have found that in life many of the best thing are hard and betting on a "sure thing" often turns out not to be the best bet.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:06 AM

2. He'll get my vote if he's on the ballot or not. n/t

 

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Response to PonyUp (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:13 AM

6. Genius.

 

That is a really smart comment.

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Response to Darb (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:31 AM

10. Spare us the Sarcastic Condescension...

 

The DNC only has itself to blame when it has lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats.

Don't you dare blame it on voters.

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Response to GeorgiaPeanuts (Reply #10)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:37 AM

11. I do blame the voters that stayed home and let the pigs in.

 

I vote every, single, goddamned time, regardless if my preferred candidate is on the ballot. I know the consequences of putting a troglodyte into office. Apparently the bernies have not seen enough, even though the repiglickers are dismantling our government all around their gigantic, brain-filled heads.

But right here, on the once Democratic Underground, I have to read over and over from the bernies about how they are gonna facilitate a Pig win if they don't get their way.

What did you do with your nose?

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Response to Darb (Reply #11)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:42 AM

13. Keep it up...

 

By time you're done shaming voters again we may end up with all levels of government controlled by Repukes... It ain't that far off.

My nose? I'm not a Democrat, I'm a proud Progressive, and I'm only here for Bernie and his fellow Berniecrats.

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Response to GeorgiaPeanuts (Reply #13)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:45 AM

15. Another threat from a berny.

 

What a surprise. You know what they call a person who says this:
I'm not a Democrat, I'm a proud Progressive, and I'm only here for Bernie and his fellow Berniecrats.


Well, there are so many noseless fools around here I won't say, but I know what I call them.

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Response to Darb (Reply #15)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:04 AM

22. Look in the mirror

 

and try to wipe some of that smug off your face.

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Response to Darb (Reply #15)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:09 AM

24. Honestly, if your candidate can't win votes, how do you get off blaming the voters?

 

Your thought process is backwards. If people don't want to vote for her, whose fault is that?

If she can't win people, don't blame them. Blame her.

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #24)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:22 AM

34. +1

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #24)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:58 AM

50. Are you talking about

the candidate that is 2.5 million votes ahead?

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Response to rock (Reply #50)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 10:49 AM

54. I guess you don't need our votes then anyways... Bye Felicia nt

 

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #24)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:48 PM

71. +10 eom

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Response to GeorgiaPeanuts (Reply #13)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:37 PM

58. welcome back

 

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Response to Sheepshank (Reply #58)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:46 PM

61. Huh? Nt

 

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Response to Darb (Reply #11)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 10:11 AM

52. "I do blame the voters" In that case, please see Reply #6. Thanks. nt

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Response to GeorgiaPeanuts (Reply #10)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:03 AM

20. In NYC you might get mugged but here on DU you get "smugged" by Hillary supporters.

 

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #20)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 10:12 AM

53. "smugged" Love it!

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:11 AM

3. I doubt there's any way Hillary can

tap into the enthusiasm and commitment that the Sanders campaign has unleashed.

"Tap into"--how?

I don't see it. Hillary's nomination would be depressing. Discouraging. Yet another "hold your nose and vote" situation. And many won't even be able to do that.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:15 AM

7. Bernie is not bringing out nearly what Obama did.

 

Don't overstate it. And believe me, I would not have bothered to go to a caucus that would be over run with "democratic" socialists with Hillary this far ahead, so don't get all high and mighty about those caucuses last weekend. Yeah, I noticed that the bernies are whining about a weekend caucus.

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Response to Darb (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:40 AM

12. Ya got nuthin

except sarcasm for people trying to bring about a better life for the average person in this country.

There's NO Hillary enthusiasm where I am. It's mainly Trump fear and weary resignation (I know a lot of Liberals of the "hold your nose and vote" type). NO enthusiasm.

Not sure what percentage to give the absurd fear of "socialism." You seem to have a good bit of that. Fear of taxation and holding onto "what's mine." How about the rich & corporations paying a fair share and the people as a whole actually getting something other than perpetual wars for their taxes?

We're not talking about the end of capitalism with Bernie. The thought is laughable. We're talking about a FAIR capitalism, and the end of vulture capitalism. It's a good thing.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #12)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:43 AM

14. Whatever you say, but Hillary is ahead by quite far.

 

If she was this far behind you would be calling her a lunatic and all sorts of other vile shit. But you guys are the good guys, right?

I fear nothing, by the way, especially the bernies.

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Response to Darb (Reply #14)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:12 AM

26. I would not be calling anybody vile shit

I don't see people that way. I try to see others who I disagree with as flawed or lacking in perspective. Hate never makes any sense to me. So let's not make it about good and evil between Democrats. Let's leave that "Big Evil" category to RethugliCons mkay?

----------------
So if you fear nothing, why would you vote for Hillary?

From what I see around me (I'd say I have even more Hillary friends than Bernie friends), it's all about fear with the Hill supporters. Fear of

1. Trump

2. Socialism (economic fears in general)

3. Sad to say, fear of The Radical Other (whether it's Muslims, Fundies, Latinos, BLM, Occupy, etc.--whatever they think might disrupt their fragile sense of order and rightful longing for peace). Yes, even Liberals are afraid of Change. That differentiates them from Progressives.

With Bernie people I get positives, hope and mega enthusiasm. That's my tribe.

So hell yeah I'm enthusiastic, overjoyed actually, honored even-- to support the incredibly brave individual who stood up at age 74 and is sockin' it to em.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #12)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:16 AM

31. The contrast between Bernie rallies and Hillary "gatherings" is stark

 

In Bernie rallies the people are happy and inspired.
At the Hillary "gatherings" they express all the enthusiasm of people watching an amature golf match. . . . ho-hum. . . . . .. "are we still here?"

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #12)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:21 AM

33. That fear of "socialism" is pathological and illogical

 

You have to ask,

"Do you like social security?" Then you are a democratic socialist.

"Do you like medicare?" Then you are a democratic socialist.

the military, the police, the highways, the national parks. . . .

And your grandfather was too, remember the GI Bill that got many in the older generation their fist house and their college education. . . . .

It goes on and on.

We're all Democratic socialists already.

Or you can give up your social security and medicare and the rest, pay as you go.

OR GET OVER IT!

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #33)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:31 AM

39. well said



Yeah, the "socialism" fear from intelligent, high info Democrats is really weird to me. I think it's just a convenient receptacle for a fear of economic disruption. Better that we have reform within the system, as it would be with Sanders--rather than continue what is not working. That is a disaster course. Kicking the can down the road is not going to be tolerated any more. The rise of Trump thing and the emergence of Bernie style populism indicates that much.

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Response to Darb (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:12 AM

25. He has broken Obama's record in several cases. The latest was in Hawaii, Obama's own state.

 

Don't underestimate.

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #25)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:14 AM

28. And he won every county in the last 3 states

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #28)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:22 AM

35. Yeouch!!!!! That must bern!

 

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Response to Darb (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:13 AM

27. I think I'm catching your basic point

 

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 11:36 AM

56. In case you missed it - Hillary's supporters' enthusiasm @ 54% compared to Bernie's supporters' 44%

"We’ve been hearing all about how former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suffers from an enthusiasm gap, but according to a new Gallup poll, that’s not accurate at all.

In fact, Hillary Clinton supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic by 54% to Senator Bernie Sanders supporters who are extremely or very enthusiastic by 44%."

And in the spirit of "Do Unto Others....," I'll include this snip as well, "So Democrats need not fear no matter which candidate wins the 2016 primaries. Both are capable of whipping up enthusiasm. The winds of enthusiasm are behind both candidates, and Clinton is drawing more than her fair share of enthusiasm."

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/03/28/bust-beltway-narrative-clinton-supporters-extremely-enthusiastic.html


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Response to Native (Reply #56)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:35 PM

57. If you believe this poll you'll believe anything.

Who you gonna believe Gallup or your lying eyes? This is really desperate. Everyone knows Bernie's supporters are the most enthusiastic. It's not even a contest. Don't embarrass yourself posting such utter nonsense.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Reply #57)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:49 PM

63. Seriously? That's all your grey matter could come up with?

That's the kind of response my children used to fling at me when they were in middle school.

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Response to Native (Reply #63)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:06 PM

66. Seriously?

This poll was posted yesterday in a couple of threads and even a grade school child has enough gray matter to question it's validity. It really is embarrassing that you actually think a poll by Gallup would change reality. Come on, no one needs a poll to know which side has the most enthusiasm. Seriously?

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Response to Native (Reply #56)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:37 PM

59. I see no real enthusiasm for Hillary around me

and a lot of "oh well, I guess I have to vote for Hillary." So if it's that bad now, I don't think it's going to improve.

The wind is at Bernie's back seems to me. That's where I see real excitement.

But this reply is anecdotal and you have percentages. So we'll see....

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #59)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:46 PM

62. I'm in a red pocket of Florida, so I see no enthusiasm for Hillary either...

but then I'm surrounded by people who believe we should have debtors' prisons, survival of the fittest should rule, and firing squads carried out within months of a verdict are the only way to go. Oh, and stockades. It's a freaking cesspool. If I had to rely on anecdotal evidence, I'd have offed myself a long time ago.

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Response to Native (Reply #62)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:54 PM

64. Sounds like you're embedded in there

somewhere beyond the boundaries of civilization, among the most extreme preppers and survivalists. So is it Trumpville, or do people just not vote?

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:12 AM

4. No. nt

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:12 AM

5. Who knows . . . he could be the last candidate standing.

We don't know what's going to happen with all the investigations swirling around Hillary.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:47 AM

16. Oh nice, a passive aggressive.......

 

......well, you know.

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Response to Darb (Reply #16)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:01 AM

19. Which candidate has over 140 FBI agnts investigating them? Hint: not Bernie.

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Response to peacebird (Reply #19)


Response to Post removed (Reply #23)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:24 AM

36. It's not the emails (mostly), it's the server. No one else has ever had their own server outside

 

the government system. NONE!

And talk about gutter. . . . . It is the Clinton campaign and allies that tried to smear Bernie's family with O'Keefe like tactics yesterday. . . . Yea, that's classy.

Look in the mirror.

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Response to Post removed (Reply #23)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:31 AM

40. So, everything against The One, even if true...

Is the lowest common denominator in the sewer. That is an unmitigated insult.

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Response to Darb (Reply #16)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 11:26 AM

55. LOL - a diagnosis.

And I thought only Republicans practiced medicine without a license.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:20 AM

8. polls find Hillary supporters more enthusiastic than Bernie supporters.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/03/28/bust-beltway-narrative-clinton-supporters-extremely-enthusiastic.html

Hillary Clinton supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic by 54% to Senator Bernie Sanders supporters who are extremely or very enthusiastic by 44%. So Democrats need not fear no matter which candidate wins the 2016 primaries. Both are capable of whipping up enthusiasm. And there dies another Beltway narrative.



Just because we don't harass superdelegates and others online, doesn't mean we aren't enthusiastic about our candidate.

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Response to KitSileya (Reply #8)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:28 AM

37. All I have to do is look at the pictures of their events and it is obvious.

 

I wonder how they measured it in their poll or whatever. It is obvious to the naked eye. Not to mention the number of people putting their money where their mouth is.

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Response to pdsimdars (Reply #37)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:38 AM

43. Hillary chooses to have smaller venues

She likes talking to her supporters and hearing their concerns. Her rallies have a more intimate feel to them. She doesn't just deliver a stump speech she encourages questions and engages her voters.

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Response to rbrnmw (Reply #43)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:49 AM

46. +1000!

That would be more to my tastes, definitely. I WANT to be able to engage the candidate.

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Response to rbrnmw (Reply #43)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 06:37 PM

60. Thanks for the laugh

Oh my.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:28 AM

9. Can the Democratic Party afford to have an indicted nominee named Clinton?

 

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Response to Chasstev365 (Reply #9)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:49 AM

17. Curious,

 

the Tea Party is hoping for that. Are you? Sure sounds like the bernies want her to be indicted. At best they are spreading right-wing nonsense, at worst...................?

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Response to Darb (Reply #17)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:04 AM

21. Wrong!

 

The Benghazi stuff was a BS partisan fishing expedition, but it may have landed something in the Clinton Foundation pay to play. I WANT TO WIN IN NOVEMBER! Many Hillary supporters are in denial that she is a flawed candidate who could cost the party the White House and the SP Court. While I perfect Bernie, I would rather have Biden or Warren than Hillary. Clinton supporters suggesting a "cult of petsonality" with Sanders supporters is the pot calling the kettle black.

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Response to Chasstev365 (Reply #21)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:50 AM

47. and your candidate is just sooo perfect!

While I perfect Bernie

Freudian slip, oh my!

Newsflash, he's a FLAWED HUMAN BEING just like everyone else.

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Response to Darb (Reply #17)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:29 AM

38. She made her own bed. Don't blame anyone else, typical right wing . . blame everyone else

 

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Response to Darb (Reply #17)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:57 AM

49. accepting the reality of a situation

does not mean one wants that reality. but wishing away the fbi investigation into the server and the foundation will not make it disappear, and it will not make any possible charges go away either.

and as for wanting it, if there was wrongdoing then we should all want those responsible to be held accountable.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:58 AM

18. Yes

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:16 AM

29. Sanders can definitely win, and he's pretty close to to the pathway to the nomination.

If you like Nate Silver (and must Hillarians do), his state-by-state analysis suggests that Sanders is achieving about 92% of where he should be in the delegate count to be on track for a win.

The climb from 92% to 100% may sound like a steep climb, but it is actually not that difficult of a pathway for Sanders.

Silver's projection sets targets based on the assumption that the race is tied and has been tied from the beginning and will be tied through to the end (i.e., his projection sets targets assuming a static race).

In February, Sanders was only hitting 81% of his target.

In the first half of March, Sanders improved to 84% and then 86% and then 88% of his target.

In the second half of March, Sanders improved to 89% and now 92% of the target.

This steady improvement has been the result of the fact that Sanders is not just meeting his targets to win in recent states; he surpassed his most recent targets to win in Democrats Abroad, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington.

Here is why:



That's a chart of all the live cell phone plus landline national polling of likely voters in 2016.

Silver's "targets" assume a static race, BUT THE RACE ISN'T STATIC. Hillary's lead is steadily falling from 15% to 5% in 2016 (and if you consider that her biggest leads are in states that have already voted but which are nevertheless included in the nationwide polling, she is likely no longer leading in the part of America that has not voted yet). The fact that Sanders started the race hitting about 81% of his targets and is now exceeding his targets by so much so that he has improved his overall performance from 81% of his goal to 92% of his target shows that Sanders' performance is improving dramatically.

In terms of where Sanders "should be" in the pledged delegate race to remain on target to win, he's only 92 pledged delegates short of where he ought to be in order to be on track for a win.

Hillarians like to pretend that she's crushing (because she did crush in the Bible Belt and she's been coasting down from that delegate lead since then) but she's only 92 pledged delegates ahead of where she would be if she were barely on track to squeak out a coin-toss-close win.

The reason why Sanders is only 92 delegates short of his goal despite the fact Hillary is about 230 pledged delegates ahead of Sanders is that Hillary's best states were front-loaded onto the primary calendar and Sanders best states were back-loaded and he's only just started dipping into the progressive pro-Sanders part of the primary calendar.

As the national race tips more and more in favor of Sanders (as the graph shows), it will become easier and easier for Sanders to exceed his goals in more and more states and get to 100% of his total pledge delegate target by the end of the race. Sanders needs just over 56% of the remaining delegates to head into the convention with a pledged delegate lead.

Keep in mind, Hillary is still the favorite, and Sanders is still the long-shot underdog, but the race remains very winnable.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #29)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:46 AM

45. NOW is the time

to be pulling for Bernie. Whatever state you're in.

K&R

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #29)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:48 PM

72. this

 

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:16 AM

30. Anything is possible, but it is unlikely. Very unlikely. nt.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:16 AM

32. Indubitably.

'nuff said.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:31 AM

41. Can and WILL!

 

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:35 AM

42. If he wins the nomination he can. there is no gaurantee Clinton can win

If we are talking trump as gop nominee those who supported Clinton will easily support Sanders in huge numbers.

If it's someone like Kasich there is a chance dems could lose even with Clinton.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:38 AM

44. Bernie's campaign is a time honored brilliant scheme

Promising a gullible electorate things he knows he can never deliver. It almost worked

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Response to redstateblues (Reply #44)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:54 AM

48. It sure is brilliant

--we agree on that much.

I'm willing to give brilliance a shot. If a Bernie presidency and a better Congress can't turn this mess around, then we really are sunk.

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Response to redstateblues (Reply #44)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:36 PM

67. Had an interesting little convo about this with my manager at work today

I had to submit a time off request to be able to caucus on Saturday, and because I became an alternate delegate for Bernie, I had to submit another time off request today for the county/LD conventions.

(Yes, it is because of things like these that I would much rather have a primary. Fun fact about WA: We passed a binding ballot initiative to switch to primaries years ago. It passed. State R party honored the result and uses the state primary, state Ds sued for the right to go back to caucuses. When Hillary supporters try to dismiss WA as LOLcaucus and I point that out, I tend to get crickets in response.)

But anyway, his assessment of the situation and general and Bernie in particular (he's very conservative, but more oldschool conservative than batshit crazy Trump or Cruz conservative):

He thinks we're entering a party realignment and expects BOTH conventions to be, how shall I put this, "more entertaining than Wrestlemania." Yes he is aware of how Trump has fractured/exposed fractures within the Republicans. Moreover, he expects both Trump and Hillary to initiate knockdown, drag-out fights on the convention floor if either one is denied the nomination (yes, even if Bernie goes into the convention with more pledged, and/or Hillary's FBI thing is closer than it presently appears). He doesn't believe the supers will abandon Hillary like they did in 2008.

His assessment of Bernie: "He won't be able to get anything through Congress the way it is, but I *do* expect he will be able to hit the reset button on the political discourse in this country, paving the way for the country to elect a reasonable government in 2020."

I replied that I supported Bernie because I agreed with that assessment (and yes I know Bernie won't be able to get anything done with Congress, unless he wins the general by 65-35 in a big enough blowout to flip Congress--which I'd place at about a 3% chance of happening right now). Nevertheless, even if Bernie can't personally sign the New New Deal to get this country back on track again, Bernie acting as that kind of the "transitional president" is probably the easiest and least painful way to get through the political realignment that we both seem to agree is beginning to happen.

If Trump got in that process would be violent. If Hillary got in, that process would be the proverbial can kicked down the road and while short term that is far preferable to Trump, long term it makes it that much more unpredictable IMO.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 10:02 AM

51. Pfft. Clinton supporters on this site find it very easy to dispute that claim. They have polls that

prove she has more enthusiasm!

Only you can't see it in the streets and arenas unless it's a Bernie event.

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Response to grntuscarora (Reply #65)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:39 PM

68. I have that sign too

When you see the light...you feel the bern.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Reply #68)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:41 PM

69. It looks great in my window at night!

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Response to grntuscarora (Reply #69)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:45 PM

70. It's a really nice light

I bought a couple of them. I gave one yesterday to a woman I work with. She and her husband are big Bernie fans. She loves the light.

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Response to noretreatnosurrender (Original post)

Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:06 PM

73. people should not be asked to vote in a way that goes against their core values: honesty, integrity,

trustworthiness, concern for ordinary Americans' interests, world peace, etc.....

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