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Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:05 PM

 

Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’

Denial is powerful. The extent to which the human mind can conjure up scenarios besides the one we don't want to see is impressive, the result of some weird psychological glitch that probably evolved as a way of allowing us to keep our sanity. I don't know; I'm not an evolutionary psychologist.

What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the party's nominee. It's a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that he's so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deusemerges from the machina, he will not.

But that's me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson -- a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of "Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You" -- is not considering the race from the same space.

Abramson's "proof" consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. It's just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and that's why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.

The only problem with this is all of the parts.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/23/sorry-bernie-supporters-your-candidate-is-not-currently-winning-the-democratic-primary-race/

30 replies, 3267 views

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Reply Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’ (Original post)
NuclearDem Mar 2016 OP
ladjf Mar 2016 #1
NuclearDem Mar 2016 #2
ladjf Mar 2016 #3
NuclearDem Mar 2016 #4
brooklynite Mar 2016 #9
Orsino Mar 2016 #22
cosmicone Mar 2016 #5
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #21
CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #6
Cha Mar 2016 #7
workinclasszero Mar 2016 #8
bravenak Mar 2016 #10
forjusticethunders Mar 2016 #23
bravenak Mar 2016 #24
BainsBane Mar 2016 #11
ibegurpard Mar 2016 #15
BainsBane Mar 2016 #16
ibegurpard Mar 2016 #17
BainsBane Mar 2016 #25
Alfresco Mar 2016 #12
Scurrilous Mar 2016 #13
CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #14
ibegurpard Mar 2016 #18
oasis Mar 2016 #19
Ghost in the Machine Mar 2016 #20
Bill USA Mar 2016 #26
dchill Mar 2016 #27
ladjf Mar 2016 #28
PATRICK Mar 2016 #29
dubyadiprecession Mar 2016 #30

Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:11 PM

1. I haven't read this posts and don't intend to. I have noticed on DU that the partisans spend

an enormous amount of energy trying to discourage the supporters of the competition. I find it annoying.
I would rather they just say why they support their favorite and what they don't like about yours.

But, "you are just in lala land if you think that your candidate has a chance of winning".

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Response to ladjf (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:13 PM

2. The article is a counterpoint to one posted here.

 

It's not intended to discourage, but to point out what the other article got wrong.

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Response to NuclearDem (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:16 PM

3. Sorry. I think this is the second time I've misunderstood one of your posts. nt

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Response to ladjf (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:18 PM

4. No big deal, it happens.

 

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Response to ladjf (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:31 PM

9. So we should only point encouraging messages?

Sometimes the truth is discouraging. Deal with it.

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Response to ladjf (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 09:30 AM

22. The smug "sorry" is not the OP's invention. It comes from the WaPo.

But was indeed posted here.

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:00 PM

5. In a make-belief land full of freebies

 

anything is possible.

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Response to cosmicone (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:24 AM

21. Come with me ...

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:02 PM

6. Let them work through the stages

 

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:28 PM

7. Ah a reality piece.. thank you, ND!

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:29 PM

8. Denial is powerful.

 

The stench of major denial is all over DU today, thats for sure.

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:40 PM

10. This point in the primary reminds me of the end of the last election when unskewed polls came out.

 

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Response to bravenak (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 09:59 AM

23. Actually it's slightly worse

 

It's actually trying to "unskew" election results.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Reply #23)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 12:28 PM

24. I feel bad for them

 

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 09:15 PM

11. Math is a corporatist plot

Goldman Sachs is an invest bank. Banks count money. Counting is math; therefore math is a corporatist ruse. Get your facts straight.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:31 AM

15. probabilities are not facts

Simple counting shows Hillary has a long way to go before she clears the delegate threshold needed. THAT is a fact.

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Response to ibegurpard (Reply #15)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:44 AM

16. Let's review, shall we?

Earned delegates

HRC 1223
BS 920
sum +303 for HRC

Total Delegates

HRC 1690
BS 946

+744 for HRC

2383 needed for nomination

653 for HRC to win nomination. 1437 for BS to win nomination

2129 remaining delegates. HRC needs 30.6% of the remaining delegates for nomination. BS needs 67.4%

It should be obvious which of those two equate to "a long way to go."


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Response to BainsBane (Reply #16)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:54 AM

17. again and slowwwwwly

Since you seem to have a problem with the concept: a probability is not a fact.

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Response to ibegurpard (Reply #17)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:04 PM

25. I cite numbers

and you treat me as though I'm stupid for not buying into your faith based worldview. You don't even want to deal with the numbers or evidence of any kind. That's your problem. You are entitled to believe anything you want, but you do not have a right to insist enforce that disassociation from reality and evidence on the rest of us.

I responded to a point that "Hillary has a long way to go" to win the nomination. The numbers show that "long way" is far greater for Sanders than Clinton. That is an empirically verified fact. No amounts of insults on your part will change that. Perhaps if Bernie supporters devoted a fraction of the time to getting out the vote that they do to making rude remarks online, Sanders might be in a stronger position?

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 12:48 AM

12. kick

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:28 AM

13. K & R

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:29 AM

14. Oligarchs!

 

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:56 AM

18. No he's not

And likely won't.
However Hillary has not crossed the delegate threshold needed to win and likely won't for some time yet.
So the race will continue. As it should.

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 02:03 AM

19. Hillary already has Bernie in her rear view mirror.

She's campaigning against Trump.

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:17 AM

20. "Bernie Sanders Wins the Utah Caucus and Reignites His Campaign"

Bernie Sanders Wins the Utah Caucus and Reignites His Campaign

The Utah caucuses were packed tonight, and an overwhelming majority of caucus-goers picked Bernie Sanders.

With 241 of 2,235 precincts reporting, the Associated Press projects Bernie Sanders as the winner of the Democratic caucus in one of the most conservative state in the country by a 75-24 margin over Hillary Clinton. {emphasis mine}

http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-wins-utah/


The Media Blackout of Sanders is starting to get colored in some as time goes by. We'll see...

Peace,

Ghost

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:08 PM

26. good post. wanted to get that said before the "lock". this Post is NOT permissable!

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:10 PM

27. How does one "look at things objectively"

with one's head in the sand?

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:19 PM

28. You are welcome to your opinion. I hope that you allow me the same privilege. nt

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Response to ladjf (Reply #28)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:35 PM

29. The controversy of numbers

doesn't impress me as the simpler math. Add up all the powerful(no not all of them are evil) advantages and resources, experience and committments and minus the challenge. The challenge being, the set negatives, frontrunner centrism and donor influence and the lack of positives(wide enthusiasm, progressive, traditional Dem platform). By traditional, I mean FDR pointing forward with his new bill of rights. Call me old fashioned, but I guess my age class was supposed to be in the bag for safety, centrism and gratitude to the Clintons.

The ambivalence is trying to set in who is better or worse or who will do better or worse in the election and governance. The divide is there, but the really unfortunate thing is relying on a default election such as LBJ had over Goldwater, something Hillary knows about. The math does not support anything less. When they were nervous about Rubio they went after him. That loser and terrible politician.
I don't like the math of negativity which is what barely sustains the frontrunner against a lone, unfunded, media suppressed and rather polite genuine idealist. That can transform almost in minutes to a loss in the fall.

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Response to NuclearDem (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:50 PM

30. Bernie still has a chance of becoming her V.P.

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