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Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:07 AM

Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You

by Seth Abramson
Assistant Professor of English at University of New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You
03/23/2016 09:33 am ET

Nobody cares how well a politician does at the ballot box when he or she is running for an office unopposed. What matters is how a politician performs in contested primaries and general elections, as when it really matters — like it will, for instance, this November — you can be certain of a contested election.

With that said, let’s make an important observation: Bernie Sanders has tied or beaten Hillary Clinton in a majority of the actively contested votes this election season.




You doubt it? Okay, let me explain.


Bernie Sanders has terrible name recognition in states where he hasn’t advertised or campaigned yet; meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has universal name recognition everywhere. Realizing this, the Clinton camp pushed hard to rack up the early vote in every state where early voting was an option. They did this not primarily for the reason we’ve been told — because Clinton performs well among older voters, and older voters are more likely to vote early than other age demographics — but rather because they knew that early votes are almost always cast before the election season actually begins in a given state.

That’s right — in each state, most of the early primary voting occurs before the candidates have aired any commercials or held any campaign events. For Bernie Sanders, this means that early voting happens, pretty much everywhere, before anyone knows who he is. Certainly, early voting occurs in each state before voters have developed a sufficient level of familiarity and comfort with Sanders to vote for him.

But on Election Day — among voters who’ve been present and attentive for each candidate’s commercials, local news coverage, and live events — Sanders tends to tie or beat Clinton.

In fact, that’s the real reason Sanders does well in caucuses.

It’s not because caucuses “require a real time investment,” as the media likes to euphemistically say, but because caucuses require that you vote on Election Day rather than well before it.

Consider: in North Carolina, Hillary Clinton only won Election Day voting 52% to 48%. Given the shenanigans in evidence during the live voting there — thousands of college students were turned away from the polls due to insufficient identification under a new voter-suppression statute in the state — it wouldn’t be unfair to call that 4-point race more like a 2-point one (51% to 49% for Clinton).

Consider: on Super Tuesday 3, because early voting is always reported first, Clinton’s margins of victory were originally believed to be 25 points in Missouri, 30 points in Illinois, and 30 points in Ohio. Missouri, which doesn’t have conventional early voting, ended up a tie. Illinois ended up with a 1.8% margin for Clinton (after being a 42-point race in Clinton’s favor just a week earlier) and Ohio a 13.8% margin.

Any one of us could do the math there. And yet the media never did.

Consider: in Arizona yesterday, the election was called almost immediately by the media, with Clinton appearing to “win” the state by a margin of 61.5% to 36.1%. Of course, this was all early voting. CNN even wrongly reported that these early votes constituted the live vote in 41% of all Arizona precincts........

Read the rest, there is MUCH more covered to prove the point~
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-currently-winning-democratic-primary-race-ill-prove-to-you_b_9528076.html


********

.......editing to add an important point~

........The Hillary camp, and Hillary supporters, are justly excited about how their candidate is performing in the delegate horse-race. The problem is that that excitement is quickly becoming the sort of arrogance that will in fact endanger Hillary’s candidacy for President. Both she and her team — including all her millions of supporters — should consider the fact that Hillary does not, outside the deep-red Deep South, do particularly well among voters when they’re given any other reasonable alternative.

The fact that early voting statutes and media reporting of elections in America favors the maintenance of the illusion that Hillary remains popular when voters become familiar with other credible options does not excuse ignorance of the reality; certainly, it won’t help Democrats in November............

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Arrow 56 replies Author Time Post
Reply Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You (Original post)
RiverLover Mar 2016 OP
NuclearDem Mar 2016 #1
RiverLover Mar 2016 #3
NuclearDem Mar 2016 #7
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #2
metroins Mar 2016 #8
Skink Mar 2016 #52
JoePhilly Mar 2016 #4
DanTex Mar 2016 #5
redstateblues Mar 2016 #16
stonecutter357 Mar 2016 #6
Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #9
RiverLover Mar 2016 #11
farleftlib Mar 2016 #13
redstateblues Mar 2016 #15
New Earth Mar 2016 #30
Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #31
New Earth Mar 2016 #35
Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #37
Starry Messenger Mar 2016 #42
IdaBriggs Mar 2016 #10
NuclearDem Mar 2016 #12
IdaBriggs Mar 2016 #14
NuclearDem Mar 2016 #20
IdaBriggs Mar 2016 #22
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #24
Scuba Mar 2016 #17
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #25
artyteacher Mar 2016 #28
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #33
vdogg Mar 2016 #53
Octafish Mar 2016 #18
RiverLover Mar 2016 #21
mountain grammy Mar 2016 #40
RiverLover Mar 2016 #46
Dr Hobbitstein Mar 2016 #19
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #23
hrmjustin Mar 2016 #26
bravenak Mar 2016 #27
artyteacher Mar 2016 #29
mountain grammy Mar 2016 #32
RiverLover Mar 2016 #47
mountain grammy Mar 2016 #50
RiverLover Mar 2016 #55
Starry Messenger Mar 2016 #34
vintx Mar 2016 #36
RandySF Mar 2016 #38
rbrnmw Mar 2016 #39
Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #41
RiverLover Mar 2016 #48
workinclasszero Mar 2016 #43
kstewart33 Mar 2016 #44
RiverLover Mar 2016 #49
SidDithers Mar 2016 #45
72DejaVu Mar 2016 #51
CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #54
Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #56

Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:08 AM

1. Fanfic

 

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Response to NuclearDem (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:12 AM

3. Fanfact

Which you won't find in the corporate, propagandized mainstream media, wherein lies the true fiction with relevant information conveniently O'Mitted..

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Response to RiverLover (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:16 AM

7. Is there some unique insight an English professor brings to statistics and math?

 

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:10 AM

2. Caucuses are awful and should be ended.

 

It is straight up voter suppression.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:17 AM

8. Agreed. Nt

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:23 PM

52. Yep but only having one day to vote is just as bad

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:12 AM

4. Bwahahahahahahahaha!!!!

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:15 AM

5. "Assistant Professor of English." Dude needs some math classes.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:30 AM

16. LOL

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:16 AM

6. lol

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:17 AM

9. Princess Weathervane's Ostrich Army Rapid Response Unit's really on the ball in this thread!

 

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:21 AM

11. LOL!!!

Lizzie!!!

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:28 AM

13. Go, Lizzie !

 

Ostrich Army Rapid Response Unit...

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:28 AM

15. Good to see the Sander's Enforcement Squad showing up to

bolster the Purity Party's dictates!!

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:59 AM

30. are they all invisible?

Cuz I can't see them

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Response to New Earth (Reply #30)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:01 AM

31. I have no doubt I'm missing a few, too.

 

My Ignore list will soon be literally ten times the size it was a little over a month ago when I un-Trashed GD: P. Worst decision I've ever made here...

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #31)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:03 AM

35. I thought I got them all a few weeks ago

But the last two weeks or so, they are popping up....I guess some who were in hiding?

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Response to New Earth (Reply #35)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:05 AM

37. I've deliberately left about half the worst offenders un-Ignored.

 

Ear to theground, as it were...

Okay, and also to fuck with 'em.

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Response to Lizzie Poppet (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:15 AM

42. Camp Shitty Math makes it easy.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:21 AM

10. "Hillary does not do well when voters are given any other reasonable alternative."

 

I edited the quote for space, but it's a doozy.

Here it is, in all of it's glory:

"Hillary does not, outside the deep-red Deep South, do particularly well among voters when they’re given any other reasonable alternative."

OUCH - that has to BERN!

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Response to IdaBriggs (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:23 AM

12. Florida called.

 

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Response to NuclearDem (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:28 AM

14. Yes, I remember the shenanigans down there. nt

 

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Response to IdaBriggs (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:34 AM

20. A few independents not knowing their own state's primary rules

 

doesn't account for Clinton beating Sanders there by half a million votes.

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Response to NuclearDem (Reply #20)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:49 AM

22. We must be reading different threads. I am seeing reports of

 

Lifelong Dems showing up as registered Republicans, New Democrats showing up "blank" and people waiting in line for hours to vote while they were told it was already done by the media, among other issues and irregularities.

To minimize it as "a few" is disingenuous at best, and setting up for a repeat in the general, with the Republican as the purported winner.

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Response to IdaBriggs (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:52 AM

24. Lol, Clinton kicked his ass up the ocean side and down the gulf side.

 

It takes a massive amount of self-deception to pretend otherwise.

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Response to IdaBriggs (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:30 AM

17. Than's the money shot.

 

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Response to IdaBriggs (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:53 AM

25. he got his ass kicked in Arizona and Ohio.

 

Lost Massachusetts, and Iowa, and Nevada, and Illinois, and Virginia, and Missouri.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #25)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:58 AM

28. and he'll lose NY... NJ.... etc etc. eom

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Response to artyteacher (Reply #28)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:02 AM

33. and PA and Maryland and Delaware and DC

 

People have confused "needs to win" with "has a good shot at winning"

If OH was Clinton +13 and PA has a closed primary, I am puzzled by people who think he'll do well there.

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Response to IdaBriggs (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:28 PM

53. Ohio called too.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:30 AM

18. ''Any one of us could do the math there. And yet the media never did.''

The Corporate Owned Media.



"In 1982, when I completed research for my book, The Media Monopoly, 50 corporations controlled half or more of the media business. By December 1986, when I finished a revision for a second edition, the 50 had shrunk to 29. When the latest edition was published in 1993, the number was down to 20. A number of serious Wall Street media analysts are predicting that by the 1990s, a half-dozen giant firms will control most of our media.

"In the process, the usual democratic expectation for the media -- diversity of ownership and ideas -- has disappeared as the goal of official policy and, worse, as a daily experience of a generation of American readers and viewers."

-- Ben Bagdikian, author of The Media Monopoly, 1993

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Response to Octafish (Reply #18)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:40 AM

21. Break Up Big Media. Excellent post. We're down to the BIG 5 propagandized American media corps now



Control the message.

Control the message.

When even Rachel has turned, you know its working like a charm!

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Response to Octafish (Reply #18)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:08 AM

40. A Hillary supporter at our caucus said "she knows everyone!"

I mentioned her friendship with Henry Kissinger. Wish I had this picture.. she sure does. She and Trump shared many a chuckle as well. At some point, the company we keep has to matter.

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Response to mountain grammy (Reply #40)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:31 AM

46. Just fyi,

The pic above is Hillary with News Corp(Fox, WSJ, etc see above) Rupert Murdoch.

Here's a pic with Kissinger (they really do look alike!)~



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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:33 AM

19. #BernieMath nt

 

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:51 AM

23. This guy is even dumber than HA Goodman

 

Sanders losing by 14% in Ohio is a fucking loss, not a moral victory.

Early voters count just as much as election day voters.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:56 AM

26. This is just sad!

 

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:56 AM

27. This must be the DU Def Comedy Jam day

 

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:59 AM

29. clinton still...

Favored to win 95% in Predict wise...

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:01 AM

32. I'm afraid this whole primary is skewed.. and that's not good for Democrats

at the top of the ticket or down the line. The DNC is weak, with a weak leader and the proof is in the loss of the House and Senate and many state offices to the GOP. Hillary's negatives are high, sorry, fact of life.

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Response to mountain grammy (Reply #32)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:35 AM

47. Well, hopefully, many will still vote D down ticket.

No matter who they vote for on the presidential ticket.

Although, most down ticket is establishment Dem too since progressives who run against incumbents don't have DNC support.

We just need a new party. We need a Do Over.

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Response to RiverLover (Reply #47)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:17 PM

50. My opinion, the only reason we're hanging on is because

the Republicans are so much worse. Pretty low bar there.

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Response to mountain grammy (Reply #50)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:47 PM

55. Very low bar.

Ugh.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:02 AM

34. Oh boy!

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:04 AM

36. "certainly, it won’t help Democrats in November."

 

The fans don't care. This is like American Idol to them.

Their side is winning. That's all that matters. Just read their posts, it's not like they're making any effort to hide their team sport mentality.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:05 AM

38. Did he invent a new math?

This reminds me of the time someone on DU said Bernie is black.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:08 AM

39. ....

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:14 AM

41. The Democrats can't afford to lose the White House in November.

So, even though every attempt has been made to congratulate Hillary before ALL of the votes are counted, be sure and vote this November.

The Democratic party in Idaho didn't even send out postcards to registered Democrats to inform them where their caucus was going to be held last night.
Normally, I get a postcard 2 weeks in advance with the address and time to show up printed on it so I can change my schedule in order to attend.

However, just as bad as that, the Republican party in Idaho put up billboards across the state last month saying that the primary was going to be held on March 8th . . . yet, in fact, only the Republican's primary was going to be held on that day!

It took the Democratic party in Idaho 2 weeks to get the Republican Attorney General to change those billboards, making them more informative, by having a small banner pasted across the bottom of the billboard announcing that the Republicans will be holding their primary on March 8th, and announcing that the Democrats will hold their caucus on March 22nd.

I've never seen such a coordinated misinformation campaign in my entire life!!

Yet, we Democrats turned out last night and set a new record for the largest Democratic caucus in history!!



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Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #41)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:37 AM

48. You rock, Idaho rocks!!

Yet, we Democrats turned out last night and set a new record for the largest Democratic caucus in history!!


Thank you!!!!!!!!

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:15 AM

43. Another math challenged Bernie fan

 

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:20 AM

44. Oh, please. Just stop it.

Yes, Bernie won 2 caucuses. Caucuses are more advantageous to competitors who aren't in the lead. Caucuses don't provide many delegates as was the case last night. Bernie will gain a few delegates at the most, but even that is yet to be determined.

Hillary is some 700 delegates ahead at this point. There is no way that the supers will switch to a guy who is a Democrat in category only. These are party officials. They know a con job when they see it.

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Response to kstewart33 (Reply #44)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:41 AM

49. Hillary is the one pulling the con. And you know it.

Centrism is just republicanism in the Democratic Party.

Pro-outsourcing & off-shoring American Jobs
Pro-deregulating financial & fossil fuel & every industry
Pro-charter schools
Pro-unregulated fracking & fracking radioactive waste disposal
Pro-war for corp profit
Pro-monopolies of all industries

If you are for real, you are being conned.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:22 AM

45. #berniemath...nt

Sid

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:21 PM

51. Fewer votes, fewer delegates

I'd say that Bernie ought to check the expiration date on that can of whoop ass he's trying to open.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:40 PM

54. I guess early voting is only a progressive cause when people vote the way progressives demand?

 

Again, this is just a variant on the "Well their votes don't count because I said so!" meme, which hasn't really been all that effective in any of its prior forms.

Southern Democrats' votes still count.
Black Democrats' votes still count.
Older Democrats' votes still count.

Your vote doesn't count twice if you participated in a caucus.
Your vote doesn't count twice if your state goes blue in a general election.
Your vote doesn't count twice if you're white.
Your vote doesn't count twice if you're young.

I'm starting to get the idea that to a Sanders Progressive, democracy is the enemy. And the comparisons of the Sanders movement to the Tea Party only grow more pronounced, as they both have been exposed as efforts by a minority of voters to impose their will on a majority who rejects them.

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Response to RiverLover (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:29 PM

56. I was ready to post this until I saw your OP.

Thanks for the thread, RiverLover.

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